W-O-W
Saturday, April 22, 2023
Monday, March 13, 2017
2017 MARCH MADNESS BREAKDOWN
2017 NCAA TOURNEY NOTES
Just dropping by to throw in some tourney notes, fwiw.
Feel free to add or let us know if/who and what might be added or amended.
HOT TEAMS
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
Oddly not much buzz about UK doing their ‘thing’
Cats ripping off 11x (and counting), might be positioned well to get to Glendale.
2 DUKE (27-8) Ken Pom 12
Despite the Devils 1-3 regular season finish
4 wins in 4 days to take ACC Title has Duke on the hot list
Duke 6-06 | 202 So Luke Kennard scores 20 PPG (#5 NCAA Scorer).
5 IOWA STATE (23-10) Ken Pom 17
ISU is 9-1 since their benchmark OT victory in Lawrence, Kansas
Including their 3 game run to the Big 12 Tourney title
Four senior starters that all hit 3’s (264 combined made 3’s at 40.5% avg) and #2 NCAA Turnover Margin
7 MICHIGAN (24-11) Ken Pom 21
Not only did UM run 4 games in 4 days to take Big Ten tourney
The experienced Wolverines won 10 of their last 12 overall to get off the mat and grab their bid
5 MINNESOTA (24-9) Ken Pom 33
Just not hearing enough about this astonishing 8-23 to 24-9 Minnesota U-turn
Gophs mowed over 8 of their last 9 regular season conference opponents
Minnesota will clearly miss Northern Illinois/Milwaukee transfer, MINN 6-04 Sr Akeem Springs (especially his deep shooting)
Nevertheless, Minnesota’s defensive efficiency numbers are hard to fathom or ignore
Minnesota was #1 in the Big Ten in eFG Defense (45.1% allowed)
11 RHODE ISLAND (24-9) Ken Pom 37
Not only did Rams win A-10 Tourney, they’ve won 8 in a row, and 12 of 14.
Caution with URI: Problematic Free Throw shooting (poor and got worse during conference season: 63.7% Conf)
Two GOOD Experienced wings, URI 6-7 | 235 Sr MRTN 14 PPG | 7 RPG | 2.5 BLK and URI 6-05 | 200 Jr EC Mathews 14.5 PPG | 4 RPG)
10 WICHITA STATE (30-4) Ken Pom 8
(see ‘teams no one wants to play’ below)
15 Wins in a row
9 VANDERBILT (19-15) Ken Pom 34
Brice Drew’s Dores earned their way into the dance with their 7-2 finish
8 ARKANSAS (25-9) Ken Pom 38
Hogs 8-2 finish and SEC Final appearance cemented Arkansas’ tourney status
11 PROVIDENCE (20-12) Ken Pom 56
Friars survived a damaging Big East Tourney opening round loss to Creighton
Providence reached 20 wins and finished regular season 6-0 (including wins vs Butler, Xavier, Marquette and at Creighton), which landed the Friars back in the dance
SLUMPING TEAMS
11 XAVIER (21-13) Ken Pom 40
Regular season finale win vs DePaul saved X men from closing the regular season on a 0-7 free-fall
Xavier rallied to reach Big East semifinal, yet Muskies continue to miss their injured floor general, XAV 6-06 | 187 So Ed Sumner
Xavier is a superb effort and hustle team
X men are also a relentless rebounding group (Xavier’s % offensive rebound ‘differential’ is +10.2%)
XAV 6-06 | 200 Jr Trevon Bluette (18 PPG | 5 RPG) and XAV 6-05 | 206 Jr Macura (14.7 PPG | 4 RPG)
In other words, Musketeers really do not get pushed around
6 CREIGHTON (25-9) Ken Pom 27
Jays were riding high at 18-1 (5-1 Conference) on January 21
CREI 5-10 | 176 Sr Maurice Watson was injured and lost for the season
Watson Creighton’s quarterback and team leader (#1 NCAA assist rate at 47.7%)
Creighton lost 6 of their next 10 games following Watson’s departure
Watson became a bigger distraction when he was suspended and charged with sexual misconduct in mid-February.
Jays play double-quick and still rank #3 NCAA eFG (58%)
CREI 6-03 | 210 Jr Marcus Foster has been a potent late season scorer
Foster has averaged 20 PPG in Creighton’s last nine
11 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (24-9) Ken Pom 61
Trojans rode the bubble after a stop & go 3-5 finish to year
SC was 10-9 after starting their season 14-0
Team Defense was a growing challenge for SC in Conference play
SC allowed opponents 1.25 PPP during their last 8 games.
6 MARYLAND (24-8) Ken Pom 45
On Feb 1, Maryland was 8-1 Conference (20-2 overall)
The youthful Terps proceeded to stagger to a 4-6 season finish
MD usually start 3 freshman, and are consequently turnover prone.
MD 6-03 | 185 Jr Melo Trimble carries the biggest load for MD (17 PPG | 3.5 APG | 3.5 RPG)
Even after the injury to UM 7-01 | 250 Jr Celovsky, Maryland is still rather deep with good size
Terps two 6-07 freshmen (Huerter & Jackson) shoot 3's well (104-260 at 40% combined)
34% of Maryland FGA come from behind the arch
7 SOUTH CAROLINA (22-10) Ken Pom 31 (see ‘steamrollers’ below)
TEAM COOLING OFF
10 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-10) Ken Pom 24
Entering March on a scorching 10-1 Conference run, OSU has dropped 3x
(In fairness, those games came at Iowa State, vs Kansas and again vs Iowa State in the Big 12 Tourney)
OSU still finished the year with NCAA #1 Offensive Efficiency (1.248 PPP)
EXPERIENCED TEAMS
8 WISCONSIN (25-9) Ken Pom 23
UW starts 4 cagey senior starters (Hayes, Koenig, Brown, Showalter) along with
Ken Pomeroy’s 6th best 2016-17 NCAA player, UW 6-10 | 232 So Ethan Happ
7 DAYTON (24-7) Ken Pom 36
4 senior starters (Cook, Pollard, Smith, Davis)
HC Archie Miller led Flyers to Elite 8 and Sweet 16 in last 4 seasons
5 IOWA STATE (23-10) Ken Pom 17
Top 5 contributors are seniors
7 SAINT MARY’S (28-4) Ken Pom 14
All 5 Gaels starters are upperclassmen
Including Ken Pomeroy’s 2nd best 2016-17 NCAA player, 6-11 | 255 Jr Jock Landale
13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7) Ken Pom 64
Bucs start 4 seniors, 1 junior
INEXPERIENCED TEAMS
6 MARYLAND (24-8) Ken Pom 45
Terps usually start 3 freshman, and have put a load on their star player,
MD 6-03 | 185 Jr Melo Trimble (17 PPG | 3.5 A | 3.5 R)
11 WAKE FOREST (19-13) Ken Pom 30
Danny Manning’s Deacs may be youthful, yet Wake packs a lot of offensive punch
WF is led by Ken Pomeroy’s #10 ranked player-of-the-year, John Collins
Wake’s super sophs average some eye-opening numbers
WF 6-10 | 235 So John Collins (19 PPG | 10 RPG)
WF 6-03 | 190 So Crawford (16 PPG | 5.4 APG)
Talent clearly overrides experience with these one-and-done heavy teams, also
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
Names aside, UK starts 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore
2 ARIZONA (30-4) Ken Pom 20
UA starts 3 freshmen
<SIZE TEAMS
3 FLORIDA STATE (25-8) Ken Pom 19
Listed as the ‘tallest team’ (average height) in the tourney
FSU 6-04 | 208 Jr Xavier Rathan-Mayes
FSU 6-05 | 215 Fr Trent Forrest
FSU 6-06 | 204 So Terance Mann
FSU 6-07 | 221 So Dwayne Bacon (17 PPG)
FSU 6-10 | 210 Fr Jonathan Isaac
FSU is big, strong team, yet their metric is clearly skewed sky-high with bench players:
FSU 7-01 | 304 Sr Michael Ojo (plays 12 min/game)
FSU 7-04 | 233 So Christ Koumadje (plays 10 min/game)
What jumps out with Noles is their youth
6 of FSU’s 7 top contributors are underclassmen
Florida State plays quick, yet don’t shoot many 3s
FSU was 16-1 (4-0), yet finished the year 7-6 in their last 13 games
Noles are below average free throw shooters (66.7% in conference)
1 GONZAGA (32-1) Ken Pom 1
Formidable Zags twin tower front court
GU 7-01 | 300 So Karnowski
GU 7-00 | 230 Fr Collins
2 ARIZONA (30-4) Ken Pom 20
Cats also boast a twin tower front court
AZ 7-00 | 245 Jr Dustan Ristic
AZ 7-00 | 230 Fr Lauri Markkanen (1st Team All-Conference)
3 UCLA (29-4) Ken Pom 18
The Bruins bring a lot of size along with their bombastic offense
UCLA 6-03 | 185 Sr Bryce Alford
UCLA 6-05 | 195 Sr Isaac Hamilton
UCLA 6-06 | 190 Fr Lonzo Ball
UCLA 6-10 | 225 Fr TJ Leaf
UCLA 7-00 | 245 Jr Thomas Welsh
BENCH
UCLA 6-01 | 185 So Aaron Holiday
UCLA 6-10 | 250 Fr Ike Anigbogu
UCLA 6-11 | 215 Jr Gyorgy Goloman
2 LOUISVILLE (24-8) Ken Pom 6
Not much on-court buzz surrounding Pitino’s 2016-17 Cards
UL Jr Johnson and Sr Mathiang are a fearsome defensive force in the paint
UL brings raw size and depth off the bench, also
Cards are the NCAA’s 6th best defensive team (UL allows 0.904 PPP)
Louisville played the #4 toughest NCAA schedule
Moreover, Snider and Mitchell are probably be one of the most underrated two-way guard tandem going right now (SEE: Siva / Smith)
UL 6-02 | 175 Jr Quentin Snider
UL 6-03 | 195 So Donovan Mitchell
UL 6-07 | 200 So Deng Adel
UL 6-09 | 230 Jr Jaylen Johnson
UL 6-10 | 220 Sr Mangok Mathiang
BENCH
UL 6-10 | 215 So Ray Spalding
UL 7-00 | 215 Jr Anas Mahmoud
>SIZE TEAMS
12 NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON (29-5) Ken Pom 60
Seahawks have made up for their lack of size with painstakingly judicious play
UNCW has the lowest NCAA turnover rate (UNCW turns the ball over just 13.9% of their possessions)
3-POINT BOMBER TEAMS
5 NOTRE DAME (25-9) Ken Pom 25
Domers were tops in the ACC in % of points from deep (36.3%)
10 MARQUETTE (19-12) Ken Pom 28
Marquette is an extraordinary 3 point shooting team: 38% of MU points come from behind the arch
MU not only leads NCAA MU in 3% (43%) they also make the most 3’s per game (10.5)
MU leading scorer is 5-11 freshman, Markus Howard (13 PPG)
Howard has cashed 76 threes at a remarkable 55% clip
9 VANDERBILT (19-15) Ken Pom 34
The Dores are #2 NCAA tourney team in % of points from deep (41.7%)
(Princeton is #1 at 41.9%)
14 IONA (22-12) Ken Pom 118
Although Gaels cooled off from deep during their 3-4 February,
Iona still made 42.2% of their threes in Conference play and average 10 made 3’s per game overall
7 MICHIGAN (24-11) Ken Pom 21
As usual, the 3-point shot is the essential scoring method for the scrupulous Wolverine attack.
UM gained the highest % of their team points from deep in the Big Ten (38%)
45% of Michigan’s field goal attempts are 3’s (#4 among NCAA tourney teams)
12 NEVADA (28-6) Ken Pom 55
Missouri State Transfer, NEV 6-03 |200 Sr Marcus Marshall is #1 NCAA in 3’s made this season
(Marshall also scores 19.8 PPG)
MEATGRINDER TEAMS
5 VIRGINIA (22-10) Ken Pom 7
UVa #1 NCAA defensive efficiency (0.87 PPP allowed)
UVa #1 NCAA scoring defense (55.6 PPG allowed)
UVa plays slowest NCAA pace (58.6 possessions/game)
UVa has holds 18 Op under 55 Pts | Held NC to 43 Pts | 55.3 PPGA
Virginia still struggles to score
UVa 6-02 | 200 Sr London Perrantes is the only Wahoo player averaging double-figures
UVa also shoots 3rd fewest free throw attempts vs field goal attempts (25.7%)
Quintessential Bennett-ball
8 WISCONSIN (25-9) Ken Pom 23
Speaking of Bennett-ball, a lot of the residue remains from Bennett/Ryan pressure ball strategy of the past two+ decades of Wisky basketball (1995-2015, three Final Four approaches, including 2015 NCAA runner-up)
Greg Gard’s Badgers are methodical as ever (63.1 possessions/game)
UW is also #8 most efficient defense in the NCAA (#7 among tourney teams)
STEAMROLLER TEAMS
6 SMU (30-4) Ken Pom 11
Ponies are #2 NCAA Rebound Margin (+10.5/gm) and #3 NCAA in PPG Allowed.
SMU’s robust starters are all 6-06 and up, Ojeleye, Brown Milton and Moore are adept at forcing opponents into their methodical pace.
7 SAINT MARY’S (28-4) Ken Pom 14
‘Death-by-paper-cuts’ team.
Gaels are led by Ken Pomeroy’s 2nd best 2016-17 NCAA player, SMC 6-11 | 255 Jr Jock Landele,
SMC is the NCAA 2nd most methodical team, and allows opponents just 56 PPG
7 SOUTH CAROLINA (22-10) Ken Pom 31
South Carolina brings NCAA’s 3rd most efficient defense to the tourney (0.885 PPP allowed)
USC HC Frank Martin’s Gamecocks are increasingly challenged offensively (SEC #11 offensive efficiency)
South Carolina forces a lot of turnovers
Gamecocks 4 OT home loss to Alabama seemed to trigger a USC slide
USC is on a 3-6 slide, after standing tall at 19-4 (9-1 SEC) on February 6.
USC 6-05 | 212 Sr Sindarius Thornwell is prodigious player for South Carolina (21 PPG)
Thornwell often plays big when it counts (34 points at UK, 44 points vs Bama, both in key conference games)
4 PURDUE (25-7) Ken Pom 15
Purdue isn’t a snail-paced team, their big and balanced squad just beats teams down with superb inside out, pass and cut execution.
Boilers are #3 NCAA tourney in assists (18.1/game) and #3 NCAA tourney from deep (40.6%)
PU brings in Ken Pomeroy’s #4 NCAA player-of the-year candidate, PUR 6-09 | 250 So Caleb Swanigan
Swanigan is a double-double machine (18.6 PPG | 12.5 RPG), attracts and commands attention in the paint
The Boilers five (+) capable deep shooters get abundant catch and shoot deep looks
Purdue is as solid as they come in terms of offense vs defense efficiency differential
OPEN-THROTTLE TEAMS
3 UCLA (29-4) Ken Pom 18
UCLA is dazzling on offense, and play at the quickest pace among tourney teams
(UCLA 73 possessions/game)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA PPG (90.4)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA eFG (59.5%)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA assist to turnover ratio (1.86)
UCLA 6-06 | 190 Fr Lonzo Ball is #1 NCAA in assists (7.7/game)
UCLA 6-03 | 185 Sr Bryce Alford is #2 among NCAA Tourney players with 107 made 3’s
Bruins have six double digit scorers (Leaf, Alford, Ball, Hamilton, Holiday, Welsh)
10 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-12) Ken Pom 24
13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7) Ken Pom 64
Bucs savvy, highly experienced group plays very quick
ETSU starts 4 seniors and 1 junior 1 JR
Bucs also bring in a legitimate scorer, ETSU 6-03 | 195 Sr TJ Cromer (19.1 PPG)
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
#2 fastest pace among NCAA tourney teams (72.5 possessions/game), right behind UCLA
13 WINTHROP (26-6) Ken Pom 112
The undersized, guard-rich Eagles play a wide-open, spread-court, quick-tempo,
3-point-bomber offense
Winthrop’s matchup defense decelerates teams very well
Eagles opponents average +2.2 seconds per possession
6 CREIGHTON (25-9) Ken Pom 27
Bluejays are double-quick on offense;
Creighton averages just 14.9 seconds per offensive possession (#2 NCAA tourney)
UNDER-THE-RADAR TEAMS
9 SETON HALL (21-11) Ken Pom 53
Slower, paint-heavy team without many profile wins, yet very tough rebounders
Hall’s experienced junior trio could be a big problem for teams that don’t crack glass
SH 6-03 | 195 Jr Carrington (17 PPG)
SH 6-06 | 215 Jr Desi Rodriguez (15.6 PPG)
SH 6-10 | 240 Jr Angel Delgado (16 PPG | 13 RPG)
4 PURDUE (25-7) Ken Pom 15 (see above)
6 SMU (30-4) Ken Pom 11 (see above)
4 BUTLER (23-8) Ken Pom 26
BU is slower moving, yet deep, balanced, battle-tested and experienced team
Butler has good turnover ratio
Since coming off Bulldog bench,
1st team Big East player, Butler’s 6-07 | 222 Kelan Martin (16 PPG | 6 RPG)
Butler averaged 89 PPG in their February conference games
Butler had more than a handful of marquee, high-profile wins
(2-0 vs Villanova, in conference)
TEAMS NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY
4 WEST VIRGINIA (26-8) Ken Pom 5
Think Mounties personify HC Huggins Iron-Jawed gamesmanship?
WVU is #1 NCAA in turnovers forced (20.44/game)
More importantly, WVU is #1 NCAA turnover margin (>8.2/game)
The next closest team (UNC-Asheville) is distant second at >5.1 turnovers game.
WVU is a punishing team to play and prepare.
10 WICHITA STATE (30-4) Ken Pom 8
30-4 WSU rides into tourney on a 15 game win streak.
Notwithstanding WSU’s stature in a 1-bid MVC, The Shockers are #2 NCAA PPG margin (19.6), and #4 NCAA Rebounding margin (+8.9/) WSU #5 NCAA FGD% (38.1)
HC Gregg Marshall’s WSU team lacks a big-time scorer (WSU So 6-8 So McDuffie 12 PPG | 6-5 Fr Shamet 11 PPG) yet they are deep and play quintessential, hard-hitting identifiable Shocker defense
Ken Pomeroy’s #8 ranked Wichita State Shockers must be somewhat slighted and determined to refute their double-digit seed
MOST VULNERABLE HIGH SEED?
1 KANSAS (28-4) Ken Pom 10
Even before Ken Pomeroy’s #8 player-of the-year candidate KU Fr Josh Jackson’s tweaked his ankle in a season-closing win vs TCU, and prior to KU’s early exit from the Big 12 tourney, KU might be the most vulnerable of the four top seeded NCAA teams.
KU brings their usual balanced scoring attack, yet the Jayhawks clearly lack their characteristic depth.
Moreover, KU’s overall 66.5% FT% is another problematic metric (Jackson 56%).
PICK TO WIN THE 2017 NCAA TITLE
1 NORTH CAROLINA (27-7) Ken Pom 3
Not only the big chip on Heels’ collective shoulders since last season’s gut-bomb,
The Heels and their average +13 rebounding margin are consistently being overlooked in their own region.
UNC could have the clearest Elite 8 path of all #1 seed
UNC has to like the prospects of facing a similar high-paced team, if either UCLA or UK reach the Elite 8
The Heels have stammered a lot more vs lumbering, slow-movers and half-court teams
UNC was held in the 60’s in four of their 6 losses
North Carolina brings 5 upper-class starters to the dance, and just looks as undervalued as any #1 seed in recent memory
Especially from a team that lost last year’s national title at the buzzer
¼ UNIT
NATIONAL TITLE WINNER
1 NORTH CAROLINA 6 to 1
All the best, guys
W-O-W
Just dropping by to throw in some tourney notes, fwiw.
Feel free to add or let us know if/who and what might be added or amended.
HOT TEAMS
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
Oddly not much buzz about UK doing their ‘thing’
Cats ripping off 11x (and counting), might be positioned well to get to Glendale.
2 DUKE (27-8) Ken Pom 12
Despite the Devils 1-3 regular season finish
4 wins in 4 days to take ACC Title has Duke on the hot list
Duke 6-06 | 202 So Luke Kennard scores 20 PPG (#5 NCAA Scorer).
5 IOWA STATE (23-10) Ken Pom 17
ISU is 9-1 since their benchmark OT victory in Lawrence, Kansas
Including their 3 game run to the Big 12 Tourney title
Four senior starters that all hit 3’s (264 combined made 3’s at 40.5% avg) and #2 NCAA Turnover Margin
7 MICHIGAN (24-11) Ken Pom 21
Not only did UM run 4 games in 4 days to take Big Ten tourney
The experienced Wolverines won 10 of their last 12 overall to get off the mat and grab their bid
5 MINNESOTA (24-9) Ken Pom 33
Just not hearing enough about this astonishing 8-23 to 24-9 Minnesota U-turn
Gophs mowed over 8 of their last 9 regular season conference opponents
Minnesota will clearly miss Northern Illinois/Milwaukee transfer, MINN 6-04 Sr Akeem Springs (especially his deep shooting)
Nevertheless, Minnesota’s defensive efficiency numbers are hard to fathom or ignore
Minnesota was #1 in the Big Ten in eFG Defense (45.1% allowed)
11 RHODE ISLAND (24-9) Ken Pom 37
Not only did Rams win A-10 Tourney, they’ve won 8 in a row, and 12 of 14.
Caution with URI: Problematic Free Throw shooting (poor and got worse during conference season: 63.7% Conf)
Two GOOD Experienced wings, URI 6-7 | 235 Sr MRTN 14 PPG | 7 RPG | 2.5 BLK and URI 6-05 | 200 Jr EC Mathews 14.5 PPG | 4 RPG)
10 WICHITA STATE (30-4) Ken Pom 8
(see ‘teams no one wants to play’ below)
15 Wins in a row
9 VANDERBILT (19-15) Ken Pom 34
Brice Drew’s Dores earned their way into the dance with their 7-2 finish
8 ARKANSAS (25-9) Ken Pom 38
Hogs 8-2 finish and SEC Final appearance cemented Arkansas’ tourney status
11 PROVIDENCE (20-12) Ken Pom 56
Friars survived a damaging Big East Tourney opening round loss to Creighton
Providence reached 20 wins and finished regular season 6-0 (including wins vs Butler, Xavier, Marquette and at Creighton), which landed the Friars back in the dance
SLUMPING TEAMS
11 XAVIER (21-13) Ken Pom 40
Regular season finale win vs DePaul saved X men from closing the regular season on a 0-7 free-fall
Xavier rallied to reach Big East semifinal, yet Muskies continue to miss their injured floor general, XAV 6-06 | 187 So Ed Sumner
Xavier is a superb effort and hustle team
X men are also a relentless rebounding group (Xavier’s % offensive rebound ‘differential’ is +10.2%)
XAV 6-06 | 200 Jr Trevon Bluette (18 PPG | 5 RPG) and XAV 6-05 | 206 Jr Macura (14.7 PPG | 4 RPG)
In other words, Musketeers really do not get pushed around
6 CREIGHTON (25-9) Ken Pom 27
Jays were riding high at 18-1 (5-1 Conference) on January 21
CREI 5-10 | 176 Sr Maurice Watson was injured and lost for the season
Watson Creighton’s quarterback and team leader (#1 NCAA assist rate at 47.7%)
Creighton lost 6 of their next 10 games following Watson’s departure
Watson became a bigger distraction when he was suspended and charged with sexual misconduct in mid-February.
Jays play double-quick and still rank #3 NCAA eFG (58%)
CREI 6-03 | 210 Jr Marcus Foster has been a potent late season scorer
Foster has averaged 20 PPG in Creighton’s last nine
11 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (24-9) Ken Pom 61
Trojans rode the bubble after a stop & go 3-5 finish to year
SC was 10-9 after starting their season 14-0
Team Defense was a growing challenge for SC in Conference play
SC allowed opponents 1.25 PPP during their last 8 games.
6 MARYLAND (24-8) Ken Pom 45
On Feb 1, Maryland was 8-1 Conference (20-2 overall)
The youthful Terps proceeded to stagger to a 4-6 season finish
MD usually start 3 freshman, and are consequently turnover prone.
MD 6-03 | 185 Jr Melo Trimble carries the biggest load for MD (17 PPG | 3.5 APG | 3.5 RPG)
Even after the injury to UM 7-01 | 250 Jr Celovsky, Maryland is still rather deep with good size
Terps two 6-07 freshmen (Huerter & Jackson) shoot 3's well (104-260 at 40% combined)
34% of Maryland FGA come from behind the arch
7 SOUTH CAROLINA (22-10) Ken Pom 31 (see ‘steamrollers’ below)
TEAM COOLING OFF
10 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-10) Ken Pom 24
Entering March on a scorching 10-1 Conference run, OSU has dropped 3x
(In fairness, those games came at Iowa State, vs Kansas and again vs Iowa State in the Big 12 Tourney)
OSU still finished the year with NCAA #1 Offensive Efficiency (1.248 PPP)
EXPERIENCED TEAMS
8 WISCONSIN (25-9) Ken Pom 23
UW starts 4 cagey senior starters (Hayes, Koenig, Brown, Showalter) along with
Ken Pomeroy’s 6th best 2016-17 NCAA player, UW 6-10 | 232 So Ethan Happ
7 DAYTON (24-7) Ken Pom 36
4 senior starters (Cook, Pollard, Smith, Davis)
HC Archie Miller led Flyers to Elite 8 and Sweet 16 in last 4 seasons
5 IOWA STATE (23-10) Ken Pom 17
Top 5 contributors are seniors
7 SAINT MARY’S (28-4) Ken Pom 14
All 5 Gaels starters are upperclassmen
Including Ken Pomeroy’s 2nd best 2016-17 NCAA player, 6-11 | 255 Jr Jock Landale
13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7) Ken Pom 64
Bucs start 4 seniors, 1 junior
INEXPERIENCED TEAMS
6 MARYLAND (24-8) Ken Pom 45
Terps usually start 3 freshman, and have put a load on their star player,
MD 6-03 | 185 Jr Melo Trimble (17 PPG | 3.5 A | 3.5 R)
11 WAKE FOREST (19-13) Ken Pom 30
Danny Manning’s Deacs may be youthful, yet Wake packs a lot of offensive punch
WF is led by Ken Pomeroy’s #10 ranked player-of-the-year, John Collins
Wake’s super sophs average some eye-opening numbers
WF 6-10 | 235 So John Collins (19 PPG | 10 RPG)
WF 6-03 | 190 So Crawford (16 PPG | 5.4 APG)
Talent clearly overrides experience with these one-and-done heavy teams, also
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
Names aside, UK starts 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore
2 ARIZONA (30-4) Ken Pom 20
UA starts 3 freshmen
<SIZE TEAMS
3 FLORIDA STATE (25-8) Ken Pom 19
Listed as the ‘tallest team’ (average height) in the tourney
FSU 6-04 | 208 Jr Xavier Rathan-Mayes
FSU 6-05 | 215 Fr Trent Forrest
FSU 6-06 | 204 So Terance Mann
FSU 6-07 | 221 So Dwayne Bacon (17 PPG)
FSU 6-10 | 210 Fr Jonathan Isaac
FSU is big, strong team, yet their metric is clearly skewed sky-high with bench players:
FSU 7-01 | 304 Sr Michael Ojo (plays 12 min/game)
FSU 7-04 | 233 So Christ Koumadje (plays 10 min/game)
What jumps out with Noles is their youth
6 of FSU’s 7 top contributors are underclassmen
Florida State plays quick, yet don’t shoot many 3s
FSU was 16-1 (4-0), yet finished the year 7-6 in their last 13 games
Noles are below average free throw shooters (66.7% in conference)
1 GONZAGA (32-1) Ken Pom 1
Formidable Zags twin tower front court
GU 7-01 | 300 So Karnowski
GU 7-00 | 230 Fr Collins
2 ARIZONA (30-4) Ken Pom 20
Cats also boast a twin tower front court
AZ 7-00 | 245 Jr Dustan Ristic
AZ 7-00 | 230 Fr Lauri Markkanen (1st Team All-Conference)
3 UCLA (29-4) Ken Pom 18
The Bruins bring a lot of size along with their bombastic offense
UCLA 6-03 | 185 Sr Bryce Alford
UCLA 6-05 | 195 Sr Isaac Hamilton
UCLA 6-06 | 190 Fr Lonzo Ball
UCLA 6-10 | 225 Fr TJ Leaf
UCLA 7-00 | 245 Jr Thomas Welsh
BENCH
UCLA 6-01 | 185 So Aaron Holiday
UCLA 6-10 | 250 Fr Ike Anigbogu
UCLA 6-11 | 215 Jr Gyorgy Goloman
2 LOUISVILLE (24-8) Ken Pom 6
Not much on-court buzz surrounding Pitino’s 2016-17 Cards
UL Jr Johnson and Sr Mathiang are a fearsome defensive force in the paint
UL brings raw size and depth off the bench, also
Cards are the NCAA’s 6th best defensive team (UL allows 0.904 PPP)
Louisville played the #4 toughest NCAA schedule
Moreover, Snider and Mitchell are probably be one of the most underrated two-way guard tandem going right now (SEE: Siva / Smith)
UL 6-02 | 175 Jr Quentin Snider
UL 6-03 | 195 So Donovan Mitchell
UL 6-07 | 200 So Deng Adel
UL 6-09 | 230 Jr Jaylen Johnson
UL 6-10 | 220 Sr Mangok Mathiang
BENCH
UL 6-10 | 215 So Ray Spalding
UL 7-00 | 215 Jr Anas Mahmoud
>SIZE TEAMS
12 NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON (29-5) Ken Pom 60
Seahawks have made up for their lack of size with painstakingly judicious play
UNCW has the lowest NCAA turnover rate (UNCW turns the ball over just 13.9% of their possessions)
3-POINT BOMBER TEAMS
5 NOTRE DAME (25-9) Ken Pom 25
Domers were tops in the ACC in % of points from deep (36.3%)
10 MARQUETTE (19-12) Ken Pom 28
Marquette is an extraordinary 3 point shooting team: 38% of MU points come from behind the arch
MU not only leads NCAA MU in 3% (43%) they also make the most 3’s per game (10.5)
MU leading scorer is 5-11 freshman, Markus Howard (13 PPG)
Howard has cashed 76 threes at a remarkable 55% clip
9 VANDERBILT (19-15) Ken Pom 34
The Dores are #2 NCAA tourney team in % of points from deep (41.7%)
(Princeton is #1 at 41.9%)
14 IONA (22-12) Ken Pom 118
Although Gaels cooled off from deep during their 3-4 February,
Iona still made 42.2% of their threes in Conference play and average 10 made 3’s per game overall
7 MICHIGAN (24-11) Ken Pom 21
As usual, the 3-point shot is the essential scoring method for the scrupulous Wolverine attack.
UM gained the highest % of their team points from deep in the Big Ten (38%)
45% of Michigan’s field goal attempts are 3’s (#4 among NCAA tourney teams)
12 NEVADA (28-6) Ken Pom 55
Missouri State Transfer, NEV 6-03 |200 Sr Marcus Marshall is #1 NCAA in 3’s made this season
(Marshall also scores 19.8 PPG)
MEATGRINDER TEAMS
5 VIRGINIA (22-10) Ken Pom 7
UVa #1 NCAA defensive efficiency (0.87 PPP allowed)
UVa #1 NCAA scoring defense (55.6 PPG allowed)
UVa plays slowest NCAA pace (58.6 possessions/game)
UVa has holds 18 Op under 55 Pts | Held NC to 43 Pts | 55.3 PPGA
Virginia still struggles to score
UVa 6-02 | 200 Sr London Perrantes is the only Wahoo player averaging double-figures
UVa also shoots 3rd fewest free throw attempts vs field goal attempts (25.7%)
Quintessential Bennett-ball
8 WISCONSIN (25-9) Ken Pom 23
Speaking of Bennett-ball, a lot of the residue remains from Bennett/Ryan pressure ball strategy of the past two+ decades of Wisky basketball (1995-2015, three Final Four approaches, including 2015 NCAA runner-up)
Greg Gard’s Badgers are methodical as ever (63.1 possessions/game)
UW is also #8 most efficient defense in the NCAA (#7 among tourney teams)
STEAMROLLER TEAMS
6 SMU (30-4) Ken Pom 11
Ponies are #2 NCAA Rebound Margin (+10.5/gm) and #3 NCAA in PPG Allowed.
SMU’s robust starters are all 6-06 and up, Ojeleye, Brown Milton and Moore are adept at forcing opponents into their methodical pace.
7 SAINT MARY’S (28-4) Ken Pom 14
‘Death-by-paper-cuts’ team.
Gaels are led by Ken Pomeroy’s 2nd best 2016-17 NCAA player, SMC 6-11 | 255 Jr Jock Landele,
SMC is the NCAA 2nd most methodical team, and allows opponents just 56 PPG
7 SOUTH CAROLINA (22-10) Ken Pom 31
South Carolina brings NCAA’s 3rd most efficient defense to the tourney (0.885 PPP allowed)
USC HC Frank Martin’s Gamecocks are increasingly challenged offensively (SEC #11 offensive efficiency)
South Carolina forces a lot of turnovers
Gamecocks 4 OT home loss to Alabama seemed to trigger a USC slide
USC is on a 3-6 slide, after standing tall at 19-4 (9-1 SEC) on February 6.
USC 6-05 | 212 Sr Sindarius Thornwell is prodigious player for South Carolina (21 PPG)
Thornwell often plays big when it counts (34 points at UK, 44 points vs Bama, both in key conference games)
4 PURDUE (25-7) Ken Pom 15
Purdue isn’t a snail-paced team, their big and balanced squad just beats teams down with superb inside out, pass and cut execution.
Boilers are #3 NCAA tourney in assists (18.1/game) and #3 NCAA tourney from deep (40.6%)
PU brings in Ken Pomeroy’s #4 NCAA player-of the-year candidate, PUR 6-09 | 250 So Caleb Swanigan
Swanigan is a double-double machine (18.6 PPG | 12.5 RPG), attracts and commands attention in the paint
The Boilers five (+) capable deep shooters get abundant catch and shoot deep looks
Purdue is as solid as they come in terms of offense vs defense efficiency differential
OPEN-THROTTLE TEAMS
3 UCLA (29-4) Ken Pom 18
UCLA is dazzling on offense, and play at the quickest pace among tourney teams
(UCLA 73 possessions/game)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA PPG (90.4)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA eFG (59.5%)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA assist to turnover ratio (1.86)
UCLA 6-06 | 190 Fr Lonzo Ball is #1 NCAA in assists (7.7/game)
UCLA 6-03 | 185 Sr Bryce Alford is #2 among NCAA Tourney players with 107 made 3’s
Bruins have six double digit scorers (Leaf, Alford, Ball, Hamilton, Holiday, Welsh)
10 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-12) Ken Pom 24
13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7) Ken Pom 64
Bucs savvy, highly experienced group plays very quick
ETSU starts 4 seniors and 1 junior 1 JR
Bucs also bring in a legitimate scorer, ETSU 6-03 | 195 Sr TJ Cromer (19.1 PPG)
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
#2 fastest pace among NCAA tourney teams (72.5 possessions/game), right behind UCLA
13 WINTHROP (26-6) Ken Pom 112
The undersized, guard-rich Eagles play a wide-open, spread-court, quick-tempo,
3-point-bomber offense
Winthrop’s matchup defense decelerates teams very well
Eagles opponents average +2.2 seconds per possession
6 CREIGHTON (25-9) Ken Pom 27
Bluejays are double-quick on offense;
Creighton averages just 14.9 seconds per offensive possession (#2 NCAA tourney)
UNDER-THE-RADAR TEAMS
9 SETON HALL (21-11) Ken Pom 53
Slower, paint-heavy team without many profile wins, yet very tough rebounders
Hall’s experienced junior trio could be a big problem for teams that don’t crack glass
SH 6-03 | 195 Jr Carrington (17 PPG)
SH 6-06 | 215 Jr Desi Rodriguez (15.6 PPG)
SH 6-10 | 240 Jr Angel Delgado (16 PPG | 13 RPG)
4 PURDUE (25-7) Ken Pom 15 (see above)
6 SMU (30-4) Ken Pom 11 (see above)
4 BUTLER (23-8) Ken Pom 26
BU is slower moving, yet deep, balanced, battle-tested and experienced team
Butler has good turnover ratio
Since coming off Bulldog bench,
1st team Big East player, Butler’s 6-07 | 222 Kelan Martin (16 PPG | 6 RPG)
Butler averaged 89 PPG in their February conference games
Butler had more than a handful of marquee, high-profile wins
(2-0 vs Villanova, in conference)
TEAMS NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY
4 WEST VIRGINIA (26-8) Ken Pom 5
Think Mounties personify HC Huggins Iron-Jawed gamesmanship?
WVU is #1 NCAA in turnovers forced (20.44/game)
More importantly, WVU is #1 NCAA turnover margin (>8.2/game)
The next closest team (UNC-Asheville) is distant second at >5.1 turnovers game.
WVU is a punishing team to play and prepare.
10 WICHITA STATE (30-4) Ken Pom 8
30-4 WSU rides into tourney on a 15 game win streak.
Notwithstanding WSU’s stature in a 1-bid MVC, The Shockers are #2 NCAA PPG margin (19.6), and #4 NCAA Rebounding margin (+8.9/) WSU #5 NCAA FGD% (38.1)
HC Gregg Marshall’s WSU team lacks a big-time scorer (WSU So 6-8 So McDuffie 12 PPG | 6-5 Fr Shamet 11 PPG) yet they are deep and play quintessential, hard-hitting identifiable Shocker defense
Ken Pomeroy’s #8 ranked Wichita State Shockers must be somewhat slighted and determined to refute their double-digit seed
MOST VULNERABLE HIGH SEED?
1 KANSAS (28-4) Ken Pom 10
Even before Ken Pomeroy’s #8 player-of the-year candidate KU Fr Josh Jackson’s tweaked his ankle in a season-closing win vs TCU, and prior to KU’s early exit from the Big 12 tourney, KU might be the most vulnerable of the four top seeded NCAA teams.
KU brings their usual balanced scoring attack, yet the Jayhawks clearly lack their characteristic depth.
Moreover, KU’s overall 66.5% FT% is another problematic metric (Jackson 56%).
PICK TO WIN THE 2017 NCAA TITLE
1 NORTH CAROLINA (27-7) Ken Pom 3
Not only the big chip on Heels’ collective shoulders since last season’s gut-bomb,
The Heels and their average +13 rebounding margin are consistently being overlooked in their own region.
UNC could have the clearest Elite 8 path of all #1 seed
UNC has to like the prospects of facing a similar high-paced team, if either UCLA or UK reach the Elite 8
The Heels have stammered a lot more vs lumbering, slow-movers and half-court teams
UNC was held in the 60’s in four of their 6 losses
North Carolina brings 5 upper-class starters to the dance, and just looks as undervalued as any #1 seed in recent memory
Especially from a team that lost last year’s national title at the buzzer
¼ UNIT
NATIONAL TITLE WINNER
1 NORTH CAROLINA 6 to 1
All the best, guys
W-O-W
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
WEEK 5 Shell-shocked Ducks at ambitious Buffs
2015 PAC-12 | WEEK 5 Showcase Game
Sat Oct 3, 2015 | 10:05 PM | ESPNFolsom Field | Boulder, Colorado
OREGON DUCKS 2-2 (0-1 Conf)
COLORADO BUFFALOES 3-1
Ducks are in unfamiliar territory following a 62-20 Week 4 home loss vs UU
ORE is unranked in AP Top 25 Poll for the first time in 98 Weeks
ORE suffered their worst loss in 13 seasons
ORE allowed the highest point total (62) in 30 seasons
ORE suffered the worst home loss in 38 seasons
Now, these Ducks are trying to avoid losing to Utah 'twice'
A road game vs Conference opponent w/ sparse talent - CU could be the tonic for UO
Assuming Locke gets the start under Center for Oregon,
The Ducks profess to go back to the original spread Offense Option #1 and #1-B
Pre-Mariota/Thomas/Massoli/Smith basics of seal-block running
ORE RB So 5-11 | 232 Royce Freeman should move to center stage
Freeman carried the ball ½ as much in 2 games since
His 24 demanding carries for 92 yards in ORE near-upset at Michigan State
(Spartans were #1 FBS Rush Defense in 2014)
Freeman is set-up to be Oregon’s workhorse from the outset of 2015
Getting 24 carries in the last TWO games is illogical and will have to change
ORE less likely to throw into 2nd seams w ORE WR Marshall out (inj)
CU Defensive Front-7 should be hard-pressed to withstand the forthcoming ORE grind
As we have all seen, ORE Secondary has been lit-up this season
CU Passing game should provide a lit-up ORE Secondary a lot of improvement opportunities
CU’s banged up QB Sefo Liufau is lowest rated PAC-12 passer vs FBS opponents
Liufau is passing just 58% completion rate w/just 6.0 Yards per pass attempt net
CU WR Spruce is top-notch Senior Receiver
Yet teams have successfully limited Spruce illustrious big play capabilities
Spruce averages just 9.8 yards per catch (vs FBS Teams)
CU Soph 5-11 | 175 WR Shay Fields is the only Buff receiver in the PAC-12 Top 50 receivers
Boiling it down:
For such an eyeball test mismatch, ORE as single digit favorite is unthinkable
Perspective:
ORE lost to two exceptional teams
ORE nearly upset MSU in E Lansing and lost to a supremely prepared UU team
Utes brought a brilliant game plan to Eugene,
Filled with jigger-plays & gadgets – that all clicked into place & worked
YES, it appeared that ORE players ‘quit’ last week while being gashed
It was a new situation for these players & this program
Yet, ORE has arrived at their ‘get-well’ segment of their schedule
CU has played far less challenging schedule than all other PAC-12 Teams
Yet these Buffs have statistically underwhelmed & underperformed
CU lost as a road favorite in the Islands to start the year
Then mounted a comeback in rivalry game vs Colorado State
CU did beat Colorado State in Overtime
Despite Buffs being thoroughly outgained (-155 yards | -9 First Downs) by re-tooling CSU
Reminder:
Colorado was 0-9 in PAC-12 last season (2-25 last 3 years)
Pure value w/Ducks this week
TOP PREDICTION
OREGON 44
COLORADO 26
__________
PREDICTION
WASHINGTON STATE 31
CALIFORNIA 42
All the best, guys
W-O-W
Monday, August 24, 2015
2015 PAC-12 Week 1 Play of the Week
WASHINGTON at #23 BOISE STATE
A lot of injuries, issues & weather can happen in 13 daysThis is admittedly very early to make a large play
Yet I just don’t see a better play than this materializing
Nor should this line get any better
PAC-12 Game-of-the-Week
Fri Sep 04, 2015 | 10:17 PM, EST | ESPN
Bronco Stadium | Boise, Idaho
WASHINGTON HUSKIES (8-6 in 2014)
#23 BOISE STATE BRONCOS (12-2 in 2014)
Week One
After an increasingly pressure-packed month of unexpected, poorly-timed off-field problems
Former Boise State Coach Chris Petersen's takes his UW Dawgs into a Boise buzzsaw
Peterson’s former team & school was probably hard-pressed to need additional motivation
They may have a little extra after an unthinkably grueling, entangled, painful week of hearsay and allegations surrounding Peterson, Baylor HC Broyles & and the Sam Ukwuachu transfer from Boise State to Baylor
As we know, Washington coach Chris Petersen has refuted a claim from Baylor coach Art Briles about the violent history of former Boise State and Baylor defensive end Sam Ukwuachu
Either way, Boise State’s Big Blue Nation is reportedly more displeased with Peterson than ever
Including the larger-than-normal group of upperclass Boise State contributing players
Most of BSU’s key players were Peterson recruits
15 of BSU’s two-deep are Seniors
BSU has the 14th most returning letterwinners in FBS
Both Washington & Boise State runs out a new QB starter this season
UW & BSU QB position battles coming out as expected
UW Jr Lindquist and BSU’s So Finley
The Boise revenge factor notwithstanding,
These Broncos are loaded, and have openly claimed a goal of crashing the FBS Top-4
Boise State’s Defense is robust, with top 77% of their 2014 tacklers back this season
Boise State Defense boasts 10 Upperclass Starters
All upperclass front 7 that rivals any FBS top Unit
Legit NFL-Quality stars on the Front line (Tyler Horn) & All-American FS Thompson
After an injury-plagued 3-2 Start, Boise rolled thru 9x wins to end 2014
Including a 38-30 win over PAC-12 South Champion Arizona (Broncs 3rd Fiesta Bowl Win)
RB Jay Ajayi’s 1900 Rushing yards in 2014 may be difficult to duplicate
Yet BSU’s capable Sr Kelsey Young (Stanford Transfer) & Boise have huge experience up front
Boise State returns all 5 OL starters in 2015
Moreover, Washington has so many huge voids to fill
Especially on Defense, where the Dawgs 3 top tacklers from 2014 were NFL draftees
(Kikah, Shelton and of course, the dynamic two-way star, Shaq Thompson)
Mont Lake insiders are openly proclaiming these Dawgs are really gonna struggle
(Wash O/U 4½ Wins (-160) | Boise O/U 10 Wins (+100) at 5-Dimes
Not only did UW lose more NFL-Caliber talent than any other PAC-12 Team
Only the ‘Big 3’ Florida Programs (Fla St, Miami-Fl & Florida) lost more to the NFL than UW
(according to Phil Steele’s Draft Day ‘Hangover’ point system)
UW OL has just 1 of 5 returning starters
With better-than-average 2014 talent, UW was a deceptively weak 2014 team
PAC-12 10th rated offense (5.1 Yards per play avg, #82 Nat’l)
The blue turf is the last place this Chris Peterson UW team should wish to start this year
Boise State travels to BYU in week 2 (and has 4 of their next 6 on the road after UW)
These Broncos may otherwise look to ease up on the gas pedal - vs any other team
Looking for a decisive Boise State win here
PAC-12 Play-of-the-Week
3 UNIT PREDICTION
WASHINGTON 13
BOISE STATE 41
All the best, guys
W-O-W
Thursday, January 1, 2015
2015 Cactus Bowl Preview | Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Washington Huskies
BIG XII vs PAC-12
Sun Devil Stadium | Tempe, Arizona
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 6-6 (4-5 Conf | 5-6 ATS)
WASHINGTON HUSKIES 8-5 (4-5 Conf | 7-5 ATS)
Two teams w/more similarities than meets the eye
OSU Cowboys
Cowboy HC Gundy is a dynamite 70-42 ATS throughout his OSU career
However, 2014 was the first ATS Losing Year since 2014
2014 was probably the most topsy-turvy since Mike Gundy’s Year One
2004 was also the first and last time OSU wasn’t Bowling in the Gundy Era
OSU is clearly relieved to have miraculously gained this seemingly hopeless Bowl Bid
OSU’s unlikely Bedlam upset cleared the way for the 6-6 entry
Of all of Mike Gundy’s accomplishments
OSU’s crazy 38-35 OT win over OU was about as inconceivable as it was inspiring
Down 14 under 5 minutes left, OSU needed 2 implausible TD’s to force OT.
A quick Cowboy 45 yard Rudolph to Shepherd TD strike on a 2 play, 60 Yard Drive
As we know, an UNTHINKABLE 92 Yard OSU Punt Return w/0:52 to play to Tie
Though plenty of arguments support claims that OU’s Bob Stoops repeated, botched game-management, the Cowboys seized a sensational time to reverse Gundy’s poor record vs OU (Gundy’s Oklahoma State Record is still just 3-7 ATS and 2-8 Overall vs Sooners)
Oklahoma State needed this gift straight up Bedlam win - as 21 point Dog - to even gain Bowl Eligibility - yet the OSU bowl appearance probably enshrouds an otherwise unequivocally weaker natural landing spot for 2014 Cowboys
OSU was essentially a bottom third Big 12 Team; from an analytic standpoint
OSU -120 YPG Conf game differential places Cowboys into an exceedingly poor statistical class
Now, OSU faces a solid, motivated UW team who has a full month preparation time
Until Pokes’ Bedlam miracle win,
OSU’s 3 Conf Wins came vs 9-27 Conf Record teams (ISU, KU, TT)
BIG 12 Conference Games | Yardage Differential
1. Bay +151
2. TCU +141
3. WVU +86
4. OU +66
5. KSU +53
6. Tex +20
7. TT -34
8. OKST -120
9. KU -163
10. IoSt -190
BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Offense
9. OSU 348 YPG
10. Kansas 307 YPG
BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Defense
8. OSU 468 YPG Allowed (Tied w/KU)
9. Texas Tech 540
10. Iowa State 572
Okie St’s unprecedented QB issues this year has often forced a once-feared, explosive Gundy Double-Quick attack
Into a stammering unit that led all 2014 Big 12 teams in 3-&-Out rate
Oklahoma State expected 2014 to be a retooling year, especially on Defense
OSU lost all their Top four & tacklers & all but ONE of their top ten 2013 tacklers
OSU also lost every single 1, 2 and 3rd Team All-Conf Players from 2013
Then they lost one player they could least sustain:
OSU Jr QB J.W. Walsh, who went down vs FCS Missouri State
OSU’s 6-02 | 204 Jr Daxx Garman stepped in for Walsh, and started strong;
Leading OkSt to a 4-0 record in his initial QB starts
Yet, even as Garman cleaned up vs bottom 3 teams of the Big 12 (TT, Iowa St & KU)
Garman’s QB rating continued to drop w/each uprise in OSU’s competition
Garman QB Rating, game to game
185
117
103
68
99
88
Garman threw 9 TD | 11 INT & Yards per completion dropped game-to-game to a microscopic 4.5/pass
OKST scored 10 PPG in Garmon’s last 4 Starts
The passing game & QB play was so anemic in the late/mid-stretch of OSU’s 2014 season
Gundy decided to burn the Redshirt Year of Freshman 6-04 | 217 Mason Rudolph
Rudolph is 1-1 as Cowboys starter
OSU QB & Point production (33 PPG) has been lifted significantly
Nevertheless, OSU is very one-dimensional on offense & finished next to last in Big 12 Rushing
OKST averaged 18 PPG in their final 8 games
UW Huskies
Contrary to Oklahoma State, UW probably finished BELOW where they should have
The Dawgs lost two critical games (20-13 vs Stanford | 27-26 at Arizona)
Where UW truly commanded dominance, yet found themselves on the short end of the scoreboard
The Huskies team lines & stat were 0-2 in games dominated
Washington’s offensive skill position spots had a few similarities with OkSt
UW entered 2014 with significant replacements
After UW’s multi-year, standouts QB (Price) & RB (Sankey) departed
Yet, new HC Peterson inherited a Washington team deep & talented on the Lines
U-Dub is one of the most dominating, experienced on both sides of the trenches
Like OSU, The Dawgs finished the year on a high note
The Huskies are peaking & the tumblers are finally clicking into place under 1st year Coach Chris Peterson
Moreover, the Huskies have truly attained that deadly balance that made Peterson’s Boise teams so potent
Washington Balance over their final 5 Games
UW Pass 236 | UW Rush 206 (UW 38 Points)
UW Pass 211 | UW Rush 155 (UW 30 Points)
UW Pass 245 | UW Rush 259 (UW 26 Points)
UW Pass 226 | UW Rush 255 (UW 37 Points)
UW Pass 188 | UW Rush 249 (UW 31 Points)
The trick here is the emergence of UW RB So Dwayne Washington
Hat-trick of 100-Yard Rushing Games to end the 2014 season for Huskies
UW D Washington 140 Rushing Yards at Arizona
UW D Washington 100 Rushing Yards vs Oregon State
UW D Washington 135 Rushing Yards at Wazzu
Thus, short lived days of animalistic, sure-fire NFL 1st Round LB Shaq Thompson splitting time - Playing both ways; not only in customary WLB slot, yet also in UW Offensive Backfield? Over
Husky Defense is back to a stingy 363 YPG ball-hawking, turnover producing unit
UW arrived w/solid, top ⅓ Conference talent on all 3 Defensive Units (DL’s, LB’s & Secondary)
UW was a legit 10-win-worthy team that held-onto-their guts in November quite well
Facing a far-less-than-usual Okla St squad...genuinely fortunate to be playing January football
This looks every bit like a mismatch of the several TD margin-variety
Huskies should roll Cowboys
Predicted Score
OKLAHOMA STATE 17
WASHINGTON 34
All the best, guys
W-O-W
TICKETCITY CACTUS BOWL
Fri Jan 02, 2015 | 10:15 PM, EST | ESPNSun Devil Stadium | Tempe, Arizona
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 6-6 (4-5 Conf | 5-6 ATS)
WASHINGTON HUSKIES 8-5 (4-5 Conf | 7-5 ATS)
Two teams w/more similarities than meets the eye
OSU Cowboys
Cowboy HC Gundy is a dynamite 70-42 ATS throughout his OSU career
However, 2014 was the first ATS Losing Year since 2014
2014 was probably the most topsy-turvy since Mike Gundy’s Year One
2004 was also the first and last time OSU wasn’t Bowling in the Gundy Era
OSU is clearly relieved to have miraculously gained this seemingly hopeless Bowl Bid
OSU’s unlikely Bedlam upset cleared the way for the 6-6 entry
Of all of Mike Gundy’s accomplishments
OSU’s crazy 38-35 OT win over OU was about as inconceivable as it was inspiring
Down 14 under 5 minutes left, OSU needed 2 implausible TD’s to force OT.
A quick Cowboy 45 yard Rudolph to Shepherd TD strike on a 2 play, 60 Yard Drive
As we know, an UNTHINKABLE 92 Yard OSU Punt Return w/0:52 to play to Tie
Though plenty of arguments support claims that OU’s Bob Stoops repeated, botched game-management, the Cowboys seized a sensational time to reverse Gundy’s poor record vs OU (Gundy’s Oklahoma State Record is still just 3-7 ATS and 2-8 Overall vs Sooners)
Oklahoma State needed this gift straight up Bedlam win - as 21 point Dog - to even gain Bowl Eligibility - yet the OSU bowl appearance probably enshrouds an otherwise unequivocally weaker natural landing spot for 2014 Cowboys
OSU was essentially a bottom third Big 12 Team; from an analytic standpoint
OSU -120 YPG Conf game differential places Cowboys into an exceedingly poor statistical class
Now, OSU faces a solid, motivated UW team who has a full month preparation time
Until Pokes’ Bedlam miracle win,
OSU’s 3 Conf Wins came vs 9-27 Conf Record teams (ISU, KU, TT)
BIG 12 Conference Games | Yardage Differential
1. Bay +151
2. TCU +141
3. WVU +86
4. OU +66
5. KSU +53
6. Tex +20
7. TT -34
8. OKST -120
9. KU -163
10. IoSt -190
BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Offense
9. OSU 348 YPG
10. Kansas 307 YPG
BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Defense
8. OSU 468 YPG Allowed (Tied w/KU)
9. Texas Tech 540
10. Iowa State 572
Okie St’s unprecedented QB issues this year has often forced a once-feared, explosive Gundy Double-Quick attack
Into a stammering unit that led all 2014 Big 12 teams in 3-&-Out rate
Oklahoma State expected 2014 to be a retooling year, especially on Defense
OSU lost all their Top four & tacklers & all but ONE of their top ten 2013 tacklers
OSU also lost every single 1, 2 and 3rd Team All-Conf Players from 2013
Then they lost one player they could least sustain:
OSU Jr QB J.W. Walsh, who went down vs FCS Missouri State
OSU’s 6-02 | 204 Jr Daxx Garman stepped in for Walsh, and started strong;
Leading OkSt to a 4-0 record in his initial QB starts
Yet, even as Garman cleaned up vs bottom 3 teams of the Big 12 (TT, Iowa St & KU)
Garman’s QB rating continued to drop w/each uprise in OSU’s competition
Garman QB Rating, game to game
185
117
103
68
99
88
Garman threw 9 TD | 11 INT & Yards per completion dropped game-to-game to a microscopic 4.5/pass
OKST scored 10 PPG in Garmon’s last 4 Starts
The passing game & QB play was so anemic in the late/mid-stretch of OSU’s 2014 season
Gundy decided to burn the Redshirt Year of Freshman 6-04 | 217 Mason Rudolph
Rudolph is 1-1 as Cowboys starter
OSU QB & Point production (33 PPG) has been lifted significantly
Nevertheless, OSU is very one-dimensional on offense & finished next to last in Big 12 Rushing
OKST averaged 18 PPG in their final 8 games
UW Huskies
Contrary to Oklahoma State, UW probably finished BELOW where they should have
The Dawgs lost two critical games (20-13 vs Stanford | 27-26 at Arizona)
Where UW truly commanded dominance, yet found themselves on the short end of the scoreboard
The Huskies team lines & stat were 0-2 in games dominated
Washington’s offensive skill position spots had a few similarities with OkSt
UW entered 2014 with significant replacements
After UW’s multi-year, standouts QB (Price) & RB (Sankey) departed
Yet, new HC Peterson inherited a Washington team deep & talented on the Lines
U-Dub is one of the most dominating, experienced on both sides of the trenches
Like OSU, The Dawgs finished the year on a high note
The Huskies are peaking & the tumblers are finally clicking into place under 1st year Coach Chris Peterson
Moreover, the Huskies have truly attained that deadly balance that made Peterson’s Boise teams so potent
Washington Balance over their final 5 Games
UW Pass 236 | UW Rush 206 (UW 38 Points)
UW Pass 211 | UW Rush 155 (UW 30 Points)
UW Pass 245 | UW Rush 259 (UW 26 Points)
UW Pass 226 | UW Rush 255 (UW 37 Points)
UW Pass 188 | UW Rush 249 (UW 31 Points)
The trick here is the emergence of UW RB So Dwayne Washington
Hat-trick of 100-Yard Rushing Games to end the 2014 season for Huskies
UW D Washington 140 Rushing Yards at Arizona
UW D Washington 100 Rushing Yards vs Oregon State
UW D Washington 135 Rushing Yards at Wazzu
Thus, short lived days of animalistic, sure-fire NFL 1st Round LB Shaq Thompson splitting time - Playing both ways; not only in customary WLB slot, yet also in UW Offensive Backfield? Over
Husky Defense is back to a stingy 363 YPG ball-hawking, turnover producing unit
UW arrived w/solid, top ⅓ Conference talent on all 3 Defensive Units (DL’s, LB’s & Secondary)
UW was a legit 10-win-worthy team that held-onto-their guts in November quite well
Facing a far-less-than-usual Okla St squad...genuinely fortunate to be playing January football
This looks every bit like a mismatch of the several TD margin-variety
Huskies should roll Cowboys
Predicted Score
OKLAHOMA STATE 17
WASHINGTON 34
All the best, guys
Sunday, May 12, 2013
2013 NBA PLAYOFFS TEAM STATS THAT MATTER
2013 PLAYOFF TEAM STATS THAT MATTER
2013 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
(3) INDIANA PACERS LEAD (2) NEW YORK KNICKS, 2-1
INDIANA | STRONG STATS
IND #1 NBA Playoffs eFG% at 46.6% (#1 Reg 45.3%)
IND #4 NBA Playoffs ‘DTR' (Defensive Pts Per Possession) at 0.998 (#1 Reg at 0.997)
IND has made 8.67 Threes per Game in Rd 2 vs NYK (6.33 in Rd 2)
IND #1 NBA Playoffs in Offensive Rebound % (30.5% | IND was #4 Reg 30.3%)
INDIANA | POOR STATS
IND committed more Turnovers than opponents in last 7 Games
IND has scored 6.11 PPG Fastbreak Pts (-3 PPG than Opponents)
IND attempted exactly the same FTA as Opponents last 7 Games (169)
IND Bench has been outscored by opponents in 7x Games (8 of 9)
IND Bench outscored by opponents by -6.8 PPG
IND 1.01 or lower Offensive Pts-Per-Possession in 5 of last 7 Games
IND opponents have shot higher eFG% in 6 of 9 Playoff Games
NEW YORK | STRONG STATS
NYK COMMITTED FEWER TURNOVERS ALL 9 PLAYOFF GAMES
NYK COMMITTED -49 FEWER TOTAL TURNOVERS IN PLAYOFFS
NYK Bench has outscored opponents 4x Playoff Games (7 of 9)
NYK outscored opponents Points-in-Paint 4 of last 5 games
(Even in last 2 vs. #1 NBA Pts-in-Paint Team, IND)
NEW YORK | POOR STATS
NYK attempted -29 fewer Total FT Attempts than Playoff Opponents
NYK shot over 46% eFG just 2x in Playoffs (Once in last 6)
NYK outscored -25 Total Fastbreak Points
(1) MIAMI HEAT LEAD (5) CHICAGO BULLS, 2-1
MIAMI | STRONG STATS
MIA #1 NBA Playoffs eFG% 54.7% (Also #1 Reg at 55.2%)
MIA #1 NBA Playoffs ‘O-PPP’ (Offensive Pts-Per-Possession) 1.128 (#2 Reg 1.123)
MIAMI | POOR STATS
MIA 16¼ Turnovers per Game in Round 1
CHICAGO | STRONG STATS
CHI Bench outscored BKN 1ST 4 Games (+13¼ PPG)
CHICAGO | POOR STATS
CHI made equal or fewer Threes in 9 of 10 Playoff Games
CHI Bench has been outscored last 6 Games (-19 PPG)
(* CHI Nate Robinson inserted into Starting Lineup)
CHI shot fewer FT Attempts in 5 of last 6 Playoff Games
2013 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
(5) MEMPHIS LEADS (1) OKLAHOMA CITY, 2-1
MEMPHIS | STRONG STATS
MEM 8-1 ATS (8-0 ATS WIN STREAK)
MEM #2 NBA Turnover% Playoffs (10.5% | MEM was #8 Regular Season at 13.4%
MEM Committed 24 Fewer Total Turnovers than Playoff Opponent
MEM +46 Total Pts-in-Paint Playoffs
MEM +34 TOTAL PTS-IN-PAINT LAST 2 GAMES vs. OKC
MEM #1 NBA Playoffs Points-in-Paint %
MEM #1 NBA Playoffs in FTA|FGA at 31%
MEMPHIS | POOR STATS
MEM Bench outscored in 1ST 8 Playoff Games (+3 last Game)
MEM made more than 4 Threes in 2 of last 8 Playoff Games
MEM hit 45% eFG or lower 6 of last 8 Playoff Games
OKLAHOMA CITY | STRONG STATS
OKC Bench outscored opponents Avg +7.7 PPG (7 of 9 Playoff Games)
OKC Avg 51.33% eFG in Round 1
OKLAHOMA CITY | POOR STATS
OKC committed more Turnovers than MEM in Game 3 & Game 4, after
OKC committed equal or fewer Turnovers in their 1ST 7 Playoff Games
OKC outscored by opponents -5.33 PPG Avg
OKC shot equal or fewer FT Attempts last 6 Playoff Game
OKC Shot BELOW 49% eFG in Round 2
OKC #1 NBA Playoffs Fastbreak Points (14 PPG)
(2) SAN ANTONIO & (6) GOLDEN STATE TIED, 2-2
SAN ANTONIO | STRONG STATS
SAS achieved higher ‘O-PPP’ (Pts-Per-Possession) in 1S T Five & 6 of 1ST 7 Games
SAS equal or higher FT Attempts than opponent 7 of 8 Playoff Games
SAS has shot as many or more FTA than opponent in 5x Games
SAS 39 FEWER TURNOVERS (TOTAL) THAN PLAYOFF OPPONENTS
SAS Avg -5½ fewer Turnovers/Game in Playoffs
SAS has committed more Turnovers than opponents just 1 of 8 Playoff Games
SAS 6 consecutive games without committing more Turnovers than opponent
SAS is #1 NBA Turnover% (10%)
SAS was #22 NBA Regular Season at 14% (-0.3% Below NBA Avg)
SAS equal or more Fastbreak pts in 7 of 8 Playoff Games
SAS Avg +8.4 Fastbreak Pts than opponents
SAS HAS SCORED +67 MORE TOTAL FASTBREAK PTS THAN OPPONENTS
SAN ANTONIO | POOR STATS
SAS Avg +21 Bench Points than Lakers (Rd 1), yet -2½ Bench Pts than GOL (Round 2)
SAS Bench Avg 40 PPG vs. LAL (Round 1)
SAS Bench Avg just 27½ PPG vs. GOL
SAS Bench scored just 25 Pts in each of last 3 Games vs. GOL
SAS Bench has been outscored in last 2 games at GOL
(After SAS outscored opponent in 1ST 6 Playoff Games)
GOLDEN STATE | STRONG STATS
GOL 9-1 ATS PLAYOFFS
GOL #2 NBA Playoffs Offensive Rebound % (28.2% | GOL was #21 Reg 25.4%)
GOL #2 NBA Playoffs eFG% (53.7% | GOL was #10 Reg at 50.6%)
GOL eFG% outshot 8 of 10 Playoff opponents
GOL bench has outscored SAS’ 2x Games
(After outscoring opponent bench just once in 1ST 8 Playoff Games)
GOL equal or more 3-Pt FG’s in 9 of 10 Playoff Games
GOLDEN STATE | POOR STATS
GOL not attempted more FT’s in 10 playoff games
GOL committed equal or more Turnovers than 9 of 10 playoff opponents
HOW EVEN IS SAS vs. GOL SERIES?
Both Teams finished each Series Game w/FT Attempts in 20’s
Total Series Points in Paint: SAS 152 | GOL 154
SAS & GOL each made 6 Three-Point FG’s in Game 3
SAS & GOL each made 7 Three-Point FG’s in Game 4
Currently breaking down Individual Stats & Quarter to Quarter Stats
All the best, guys
W-O-W
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)