2012 WIN TOTAL ASSESSMENTS
ACC & BIG EAST
ACC
FLORIDA STATE 9½ WINS (Over -170 | Under +150)
Phil Steele’s widely critiqued 2012 prediction bears repeating:
Florida State Seminoles - 2012 National Champions
OVER 9½ WINS is definitely worth a serious look w/Steele endorsement
Fisher’s Noles underachieved a bit in 2011,
Though they get a well-deserved partial pass
After losing a staggering 46 Game Starts to Injury
(7th Most in FBS)
FSU still went a respectable 9-4
FSU 2012 up-side IS unmistakable
FSU TALENT
FSU also brings by far the most 20 Preseason All-Conference Players
(Clemson is a distant 2nd w/13)
FSU fields FOUR 2012 Preseason All-Americans
(Tied for 4th most FBS)
Florida State Offense
Most obviously, return of 100% healthy QB EJ Manuel is #1 Key
Manual is legit game-changing, Heisman Candidate (even if a ‘Darkhorse’)
FSU QB Manuel, ACC’s 2012 Preseason All-Conference QB
Florida State Defense
Noles’ bring unthinkable 10 Preseason All-Conf Defensive Players to field
Florida State Special Teams
FSU fields FBS’ #1 Rated 2012 Preseason Special Team
FSU EXPERIENCE
Florida State Offense FSU brings back 88% of their 2011 Offensive Yardage (#7 Nat’l)
Florida State DefenseFSU returns 9 of 11 Starters from #4 Nationally Ranked Defense
FSU SCHEDULE
Not easy - yet has some favorable
Noles 0 Road Games till 09/29/12
FSU draws #1 ACC Contender, CLEMSON at Home
FSU draws rival FLORIDA at Home
FSU does have to travel to Blacksburg
Yet, Noles play at VT following Bye Week
FSU’s 1 significant Trap?
Noles Road Game #1 (09/29)
Florida State at South Florida
Just after THE Big One vs. Clemson
Lastly, FSU has a few noticeable barbs on their resume’
1. FSU lost Top Two 2012 Tacklers
2. FSU returns ‘just’ 50 Career OL StartsNevertheless,
FSU truly looks like a BCS Title Contender
Yet, this much VIG makes risking more than ¼ Unit a bit impractical
¼ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
FLORIDA STATE | OVER 9½ (-170)
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VIRGINIA TECH 9½ WINS (Over +140 | Under -160)
NO LEAN
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CLEMSON 8½ WINS (Over -155 | +135)
NO LEAN
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NORTH CAROLINA ST 7½ WINS (Over -130 | Under +150)NO LEAN
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NORTH CAROLINA 7½ WINS (Over -135 | Under +115)
(COACHING CHANGE = QUESTIONABLE CALL)
1st Year HC Fedora (Southern Mississippi)
Scheme Change (Spread Option)
NC brings 3 Preseason All-Americans
Heels are also 7th Most Seniors on their 2-Deep
Lastly, Tar Heels have 17th easiest FBS schedule
Coaching Change & higher VIG than we’d like
Keeps this as a lean only
UNC LEAN: OVER 7½ WINS
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GEORGIA TECH 8 WINS (Over +125 | Under -145)
GA TECH LEAN: UNDER 8 WINS
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VIRGINIA 7 WINS (Over +150 | Under -170)
Like Wahoos to come back to the Pack & land Under 7
Yet – as we’ve said -- too much VIG to put real $ on it
UVA LEAN: UNDER 7 WINS
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MIAMI-FLORIDA 7 WINS (Over +130 | Under -150)
Canes’ have big-time issues replacing Offensive Production
Miami lost all but 24% of their Offensive Yardage (9TH Lowest FBS)
Miami also brings back just 36 OL Starts
Hard to make a play here
Less-than-easy schedule & New Cats all over the field
‘Gun to Head’, we’d wager Canes’ Under
MIAMI LEAN: UNDER 7 WINS
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WAKE FOREST 5½ WINS (Over +130 | Under -170)
Even though WF could likely start 4-0
Wake has a very heavy midsection group of 6 GamesWhere they figure to WIN ZERO:
(UNC, at FSU, at UVa, CLEM, at NCSU, at ND)
Thus, the Deacons reaching
Even w/decent QB (Jr QB Tanner Price),
Wake Forest has 3rd LEAST OL Starts Returning (Just 17 Career Starts)
Thus, from this Roster, & ONLY 4 Offensive Starters back,
Odds of Wake Forest repeating or EXCEEDING their 2012 Win Total (6)?
Quite Poor
WAKE FOREST | UNDER 6 (-140)
NO PLAY (ON WF 5½ WINS)
Total Win Total moved - would have wagered ½ UNIT at UNDER 6
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BOSTON COLLEGE 5½ WINS (-110)
BC rebounded rather well from 1-6 Start (0-5 ATS first 5)
(Including Home Loss to Duke)
Only Maryland lost more starts to injury than BCAs Boston College regained team health & as underdogs in last 7 Games,
BC finished 3-2 in their final 5 Games
BC Returns all but 1 Offensive Starters (17 Overall)
Total Win Total moved from 4½ to 5½
NO LEAN (ON 5½)
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MARYLAND 4½ WINS (Over +110 | Under -130)
MD 2011 hardest hit by Injury of all FBS Teams (statistically)
Terps lost 22% of all potential 2011 Game Starts
(59 Total Starts Lost in 2011)
Will an ‘average’ Injury season in 2012 DOUBLE Md’s Win Total?
Probably NOT
Terps bring 15 Starters Back, including 9 on Defense
w/4 of Terps Front 7 being named to ACC Preseason All-Conference Team
ALL Sr Returning Starters:
1st Team MD Sr DT Vellano
2nd Team MD Sr NT Francis
3rd Team MD Sr LB Hartsfield
4th Team MD Sr LB Drakeford
All that Sr Talent & Experience anchors Md Defense
As mentioned, hit hard w/27 Starts lost to Injury in 2011
Yet also ranked dead-last ACC (#96 Nationally) in 2011
Md Front-7 is abundantly talented
MD DL’s Ranked 3rd in ACC (just behind VT & FSU)
MD LB’s are also Top Third ACC
Yet, Md Secondary was altogether porous in 2011
MD tied Duke for weakest ACC Pass Defense (#95 FBS)
Md 2012 Secondary is seen as 2nd weakest in ACC
Even w/the aforementioned All-Conference pieces,
Md overall talent nucleus Ranks #11 of 12 ACC Programs
MD fields just 7 of ACC Preseason Top 112 Players
(Only DUKE w/2 has fewer, Md is Tied for #11 w/UVa)
Terps 2011 Special Teams were 4th lowest among BCS-Conf Programs (#107)
Md doesn’t project any higher this Season
SCHEDULE - Brass-Tax for Md to Reach or surpass 4 Wins
1-0 (Md opener vs. William & Mary)
Terps will conceivably have to go 3-5 in the following group of 8 Games:
at Temple
CONNECTICUT
at West Virginia
WAKE FOREST
at Virginia
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
at Boston College
GEORGIA TECH
Terrapins would clearly have to reach 4-5 Record
Before an inevitable, built-in, season-ending, 3-Game Losing Streak portion:
at Clemson
FLORIDA STATE
at North Carolina
(Loss-Loss-Loss)
Another way to see it,
CAN ‘healthier’ Maryland Team do what they could NOT Last Year..
CAN MD WIN 1 ROAD GAME?
Terps WEEK 2 Contest at Temple looks to be the primary opportunity
IF Md wins 1 of the 2 ‘Winnable’ Roadies;
(at Temple, at BC)
Then Terps only have to SPLIT 4 Home Games
(UCONN, WAKE, NCSU, GA TECH)
Can’t see it happening
Md is consistently inept on Road
Terps 0-5 (1-4 ATS, w/4 Game ATS Road Losing Streak & counting)
Md was winless on Road 2 of last 3 Seasons
Md also 6-15 ATS on Road over 4 Seasons
Md Scheduled Starting QB Jr 6-3 | 205 CJ Brown
Has 3 Career Starts, in 2009
He’s mobile; w/a 75 Yd TD Run vs. Florida State in 2nd Start
MD also w/Tailback concerns
MD TRUE FRESHMAN Starting at RB (Wes Brown)
Coupled w/Md OL inexperienceTerps are in BOTTOM 20 of FBS Returning OL Starts (45)
Defenses will be perceptive of a mobile QB
w/sub-50% Completion Ratio; & real accuracy issues
Terps could have profound problems moving the ball
Finally, Phil Steele factors ALL these sorts of Factors
In a strangely obscure segment he terms ‘Projected Stats’ for 2012
Steele lists Md “Projected +/-” Stats:
MD -6.9 PPG in 2012
This is the BIGGEST projected regression in the ACC
For a Team that went 2-10 in 2011
½ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
MARYLAND | UNDER 4½ (-150)
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DUKE 3½ WINS (-110)
Total moved from preliminary Win Total 4 WINS
Slight under lean evaporated w/½ Game downgrade
NO LEAN
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BIG EAST
LOUISVILLE 9 WINS (Over +150 | Under -170)
Contrarian lean here, despite so much public preseason Cards steam
Louisville touted as lavishly talented
Yet, only Syr & Temp have fewer Preseason All-Conf Selections than Cards
Even w/5 of first 7 Cards Games in Papa John’s Stadium,
Louisville could conceivably lose 2 or 3 of these 7
After FCS Mizz St & rival UKy
Cards face robust UNC Squad
Followed by prickly 3 Game Roadie
at Preseason SBC Favorite, Florida International
at 2011 C-USA Runner-Up Southern Mississippi
at Pittsburgh
Much of 2012 Louisville Steam is likely stems from 2 clear aspects
1. TWO Louisville memorable late-season comeback road wins (Louisville won at WVU, 38-35 & at South Florida 34-24)
2. 15 Louisville Players Returning, including QB Ted Bridgewater
Nevertheless, Cards were Up-Down 7-6 Team last year
Despite marquee late wins, Cards lost at HOME to FIU
Cards also dropped 3 games after being tied or ahead at halftime (at Marshall, at North Carolina, at Cincinnati)
Just don’t see the ‘Ville as NINE win Team with the schedule they must face
(Yet, again, the VIG is just too step to play more than ¼ UNIT)
Rutgers brings 15 Starters back
Most Notably, Knights return 80% of their Tackles
From 2011 Big East #1 Ranked Defense (314 YPG Allowed)
As we all know, Rutgers New Coach Kyle Flood replaces Jersey Legend, Greg Schiano
RU also has a peculiar 2011 Schedule
Three of Rutgers first 4 are on Road
Knights play in New Brunswick just once (vs. FCS Howard) in September
RU has just 1 home game before Knights Week 6 Conference Home Opener vs. UConn
RU has demanding early Road BTB Road Trip
1. Primetime ESPN Thursday Night Conference Opener in Tampa, Florida at Conference Favorite, South Florida
(Bulls likely in Revenge Mode; 2011 Rutgers exciting 20-17 OT Win)
2. Rutgers then travels to SEC Arkansas
Rutgers brings back 76 OL Starts (#13 Most FBS),
Which may or may not help RU this season
Knights were NOT a good Rushing Team in 2011
RU was Dead-Last in Big East Rushing (98 YPG Avg)
Difficult to rationalize putting good money toward Rutgers
NO LEAN
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SOUTH FLORIDA 7½ WINS (Over -150 | Under +130)
Bulls staggering to a 5-7 colossally disappointing season last year
As 2011 Big East Title Dark horse
USF ended up FBS-Worst 1-5 straight up in Close Games
USF held Double-Digit HALFTIME LEADS in 2 of those L’s
South Florida 16-0 at Notre Dame (L 20-23)
South Florida 10-0 at Rutgers (L 17-20)
USF was Tied at Halftime of 2 More Losses
South Florida was Tied 10-10 vs. Cincy (L 34-37)
South Florida was Tied at Miami-Florida (L 3-6)
Bulls finished w/unthinkable 1-6 Big East Conference Record in 2011
South Florida is still a popular pick to win Big East in 2012
w/15 Starters back, S Fla could really make a Big East Title a reality,
Yet USF may have do so w/modest amount of overall wins
Given Bulls deceptively challenging 2012 schedule:
at Nevada
RUTGERS
at Ball State
FLORIDA STATE
at Temple
at Louisville
SYRACUSE
CONNECTICUT
MIAMI-FLORIDA
at Cincinnati
PITTSBURGH
Bulls are tempting OVER play
Yet too much juice (again) to drop down on Bulls
Especially w/Defense that really MUST make large strides in 2012
LEAN: USF OVER 7½ WINS (-150)
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CINCINNATI 7½ WINS (Over +120 | Under -140)
Schedule alone gives Bearcats a reasonable expectation of 8 Wins
CINCINNATI
No True Road Games till 10/20/12
Just 3 Road Conf Games, include newest Big East member (Projected last place), Temple
Back loaded schedule should be highly beneficial for Bearcats
Cincy has an uncommon opportunity to ‘ease into things’
Cincy has 7 New Starters on Offense
More Importantly, Cincy returns just 42% of their 2011
Offensive Yardage - from Big East’s 2ND Most Potent Offense
Even w/decent schedule, were staying away from Cincy
NO LEAN
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PITTSBURGH 7 WINS (Over -120 | Under EVEN)
(COACHING CHANGE = QUESTIONABLE CALL)
New Pitt HC Paul Christ inherits a nearly intact Panther Offense returns nearly all its 2011 Playmakers
Pitt brings 93% of their Offensive Production back
On the downside, Pitt is starting over on Defense
The Panthers return just 48% of their 2011 Tackles (4TH fewest FBS)
Pitt schedule exemplifies slack in a stripped down Big East
Panthers face a two tough OOC Games
VIRGINIA TECH
at Notre Dame
Yet, Pitt meets 2 FCS Programs, also
Passing on this bag-of-crazy-mixed-nuts that is 2012 Pitt
NO LEAN
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CONNECTICUT 5½ WINS (Over -160 | Under +120)
(Huskies began at 6½)
Flaws? How Bout SCHEDULE:
Three difficult Roadies
at South Florida
at Louisville
at Rutgers
Had slight lean w/UNDER back when UConn number was 6½
Not touching it now
NO LEAN
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SYRACUSE 5½ WINS (Over +180 | Under -260)
So much VIG here w/UNDER
Syracuse was poor ATS in 2011 (3-9 ATS)
Wild Card Orange played THREE Overtime Games
Gotta stay cautious & leave Syracuse alone
NO LEAN
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TEMPLE 4½ WINS (Over +155 | Under -195)
(DRASTIC CHANGES = QUESTIONABLE CALL)
Owls move from MAC to Big East
Yet Temple’s timing probably couldn’t be worse
TEMPLE Just 8 Starters Back
From Owls breakthrough 9-4 (9-4 ATS) 2011 Season
Temple returns 2ND Lowest % of Defensive Tackles in FBS
Temple returns 10TH Lowest % of Offensive Yardage in FBS
Very difficult to gage Temple
¼ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
LOUISVILLE | UNDER 9 (-170)
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RUTGERS 7½ WINS (Over -175 | Under +135)
(COACHING CHANGE = QUESTIONABLE CALL)
Knights would probably be well worth substantial ‘OVER’ consideration, (w/o all this VIG)
Lastly, Maryland may have some 2012 Defensive StrengthsTerps have big-time issues on Offense - especially QB
NO LEAN
