Tuesday, February 26, 2013

PAC-12 HOOPS: "Stats that Matter"


Been asked again to share some numbers used 
When gauging REAL DISCERNABLE DIFFERENCES in capping PAC-12 Teams Proficiencies

Most numbers such as Turnover % & Rebound %'s 
Can be easily found & used
THE DIFFERENTIAL Numbers are what can be MOST USEFUL

i.e., another dynamic way to use infinitely valuable 'TRIANGLE'    

Triangulating Stats in this case: 
eFG | eFG Opponents ~ eFG DIFFERENCE

Similar to the Capping Theory used on this end, 
which Triangulates:
1. COACHING THEORIES 
2. STATISTICIAN THEORIES 
3. HANDICAPPING PRINCIPALS
__________

In any case, here are PAC-12  up to date Difference-Making Numbers

5 STATS THAT TRULY MATTER 

* PROFICIENCY DIFFERENTIAL *

A lot MORE numbers ‘matter’, of course
Yet many of those are so interwoven in stylistics of Teams’ Particular scheme/philosophy
Re. 3-Point Distribution Theories, ect

*  PACE | TEMPO 
*  MOTION vs. SCREEN-BASED OFFENSE
*  MTM vs. UNFIXED DEFENSE 
    (or even Match-Up Zones such as Syracuse, ect)

Will wildly skew certain numbers such as 
OFFENSIVE REBOUND %
(Teams that shoot more 3-Pointers will inevitably collect more O-Rebounds)
(Teams that screen-down, ect, will gain more FT’s)

NUMBERS THAT MATTER REVOLVE AROUND FIVE FUNDAMENTAL STATS 

1.    POINTS PER GAME MARGIN / DIFFERENCE
2.    eFG% DIFFERENCE
3.    FREE THROW RATE DIFFERENCE

4-A.   TURNOVER % 
4-B.  ASSIST TO TURNOVER % 

5-A.  REBOUND %
5-B.  OFFENSIVE REBOUND % DIFFERENCE 

POINTS PER GAME MARGIN / DIFFERENCE
1.    ARIZ +6.1
2.    UCLA +3.3
3.    ORE +3.1
4.    COLO +2.8
5.    STAN + 2.3
6.    AZST +1.5
7     CAL +0.8
8.    WASH -0.8
9.    USC -2.0
10.  OSU -3.7
11.  WZU -6.7
12.  UTAH -6.8

eFG% DIFFERENCE
1.     ARIZ +9.1%
2.     UCLA +4.8%
3.     ORE +4.6%
4.     COLO +4.3%
5.     STAN +3.4%
6.     AZST +2.0%
7.     CAL +0.9%
8.     WASH -1.3%
9.     USC -2.6%
10.   ORST -5.4%
11.   UTAH -10.1%
12.   WZU -10.7%

FREE THROW RATE DIFFERENCE
1.    COLO +11.5%
2.    UCLA +8.5%
3.    ORE +6.7%
4.    ORST +4.5%
5.    AZST +4.0%
6.    ARIZ -0.5%
7.    STAN -0.8%
8.    UTAH -4.7%
9.    WZU -4.9%
10.  CAL -6.6%
11.  WASH -8.5%
12.  USC -10.5%

TURNOVER % 
1.    UCLA +4.0%
2.    WZU +2.1%
3.    STAN +1.9%
4.    ARIZ +1.2%
5.    COLO +0.3%
6.    CAL | EVEN
7.    AZST -0.2%
8.    ORE -0.4%
9.    ORST -1.3%
10.  WASH -1.7%
11.  UTAH -2.0%
12.  USC -4.0%

ASSIST TO TURNOVER % 
1.   UCLA +0.5%
2.   CAL +0.3%
3.   STAN +0.1%
5-T. ARIZ | EVEN  
5-T. ORE | EVEN  
5-T. COLO | EVEN  
5-T. UTAH | EVEN  
8-T. AZST -0.1% 
8-T. WASH -0.1% 
8-T. ORST -0.1%
8-T. WZU -0.1%
12.  USC -0.4%

REBOUND %
1.   WASH 54.4%
2.   ORE 53.4%
3.   ARIZ 52.7%
4.   COLO 50.8%
5.   ORST 50.6%
7-T. STAN 50.0%  
7-T. USC 50.0%
7-T. WZU 50.0%
9.   AZST 49.5% 
10.  CAL 48.5% 
11.  UCLA 45.2% 
12.  UTAH 45.0% 

OFFENSIVE REBOUND % DIFFERENCE 
1.    WASH 37.1%
2.    ORE 34.1%
3.    ARIZ 33.4% 
4.    COLO 33.3%
5.    ORST 32.6%
6.    CAL 30.6%
7.    USC 30.0%
8.    WZU 28.7%
9.    STAN 28.5%
10.  AZST 28.2% 
11.  UCLA 26.4%
12.  UTAH 23.6%

For what its' worth, as always. Thanks, Guys


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