2011-12 COLLEGE BASKETBALL
OVERACHIEVERS &
UNDERPERFORMERS
Roughly ⅓ into College Basketball Regular Season,
Making the turn, accelerating into Conference Play
Often a good point to identify discrepancies
TEAMS
PLAYERS
OVERACHIEVERS
UNDER-PERFORMERS
….weighed against preliminary expectations.
Awareness of these differences can be a worthwhile exercise
Revealing periodic square spots & situations
That stat-cappers & volume grinders seek to transpose &/or exploit
Ken Pomeroy’s binomial assessments of all 345 D-I Teams
Serves as our comparison(s) points, since RPI is incomplete on 11-1
EARLY SEASON OVERACHIEVERS
WYOMING COWBOYS +166 (12-2 | 7-3 ATS)
Experience is worth a lot to Wyoming.
Cowboys are Rated 17th Most Experienced D-I Team
12-2 Cowboys still have big troubles away from Laramie
Only 2011-12 Win in 3 Roadies this year
Was at shaky Colorado
Wyoming was Winless in Conference Last Year on Road
& still have major issues shooting 3's
Fade Value w/Cowboys may have largely evaporated
Wyoming is starting to cool off.
After 6-1 ATS Start, The Cowboys are 1-2 ATS
Denver's Meat grinder slugged Wyoming by 11 on Monday
Wyoming captured another Road Win at Idaho St tonight
WYOMING’s #1 ASSET in 2011-12: SCORING DEFENSE
WYOMING HAS ALLOWED 51 PPG (#2 D-I)
La SALLE +122 (8-4 | 6-2 ATS)
2 of La Salle's 4 Losses
Make Explorers look more stout than their 7 sterile Wins do:
La Salle’s OT Loss to Rival Nova
La Salle’s 4 Pt Dogfight Loss to Pitt.
Yet, La Salle’s other 2 L’s demand cautious optimism
La Salle 66, at Delaware 70
Robert Morris 51, at La Salle 44
Since 2 losses to Big East Teams
La Salle's S.O.S has been inconsequential
Explorers’ youth is glaring, even w/better than-avg talent
Thus, we might be hard-pressed
To back the improving, yet nebulous La Salle Team
La Salle may be a popular, yet square play on Jan 4
XAVIER at La SALLE
La Salle no real tests before they face polished, Vet Muskies
& Xavier will be looking to bounce back
From inexplicable 1-3 Xmas Holiday nose-dive,
w/Muskies forced to play w/depleted Roster
X-Men could have a good value here
w/most key players back from suspension
At (possibly) over-steamed 6-2 ATS Explorers
IF we get good number, & game has correct texture
(as always)
GEORGIA STATE +101 (9-3 | 5-3 ATS)
Ga St 6-12 in Bullish Mid-Major Colonial last year
Yet, The Panthers earned valuable experience
GSU finished reasonably well (3-4 last 7 in Conf)
G-St's 2011-2012 Core Group logged big minutes last year
G-St was #11 in Overall Bench-% Min last year
(41.7% of GSU Min was off Bench)
Ga St was expected to raise their Win Total
After 0-3 (& 0-3 ATS) Start (all away from home)
GA ST HAS WON 9 IN A ROW OVERALL
(& 5 in a Row, ATS)
Though Ga St's Wins have come vs. Lower Half RPI Teams
MARGIN of VICTORY is Eye Opening
GA ST WON LAST 6 GAMES BY AVG 24.3 Pts
22/31/26/32/32/3 = 24.3 AVG
Liberty 72-50
S Car St 85-54
Fla Int'l 73-47
Wm & Mry 66-34
Rd Island 96-64
Utah Val 71-68
Ga St's heavy bench minutes are reflected by HIGH
Experience Rating:
(Ga-St: Top 12% Experience, D-I)
GA ST STARTS 4 SENIORS
Big problem for Ga St in 2010-11 WAS 59.6% FT's
(Next to LAST, D-I)
G-St has excellent Defensive-Efficiency Numbers this season
D-PPP (0.984 this)
The Elephant in the G-St Room?
The Panthers really struggle to score much of the time
2010-11 Panthers were in Lowest 15%
Offensive Efficiency
Ga St is better in so far 2011-12
Yet just a shade over AVG in D-I
(EXACTLY 50th PERCENTILE: 1.000 Points Per Possession)
Even w/3 Experienced Senior Starters
THIS SEASON:
Ga St is handcuffing teams again Defensively
Panthers are #1 in Colonial
9 of 16 Major ‘D’ Proficiency Categories
GA-ST DRAMATICALLY REVERSED T-Over-%
PANTHERS TOP 5% Least T-Over Prone
(2011-12 | 0.17 T-Over/Possession)
COMPARED TO HIGHEST 8.4% T-Over Rate last year
(2010-11 | 0.24 T-Over/Possession)
GA-ST is #1 O-PPP vs. D-PPP Differential in CAA (+0.193)
This rate of Proficiency for such an experienced Team?
Leads one to conclude it is NOT a Fluke
Panthers bring good balanced Scoring,
& ONLY NON-SR is Ga St's leading Scorer
GSU PG 5-10 | 157 Soph Devonta White, 13 PPG
GSU FWD 6-5 | 201 Sr Jihad Ali, 12.1 PPG
GSU FWD 6-7 | 206 Sr Eric Buckner, 11 PPG
GSU FT's:
From #344 (59.6%) to Respectable, still not great 65.7%
CIRCLED GAME
1-4: GEORGIA ST at VA COMMONWEALTH
ILLINOIS STATE +88 (8-3 | 4-3 ATS)
Another mostly empty schedule for 8-3 Ill St
ISU identical 8-3 Record this time last year,
Yet finished 12-19
Ill St lost 2 key Sr's from 2010-11 Team
(Guards Rubin & Hall)
Yet went deeper into Bench than any Mz-Val Team
Still a little leery about seeing Ill St as Cash-Cow
REDBIRDS COULD BE PROTOTYPICAL “HOUSE-OF-CARDS”
Especially as Dependant Redbirds are on 3-Pointers
& w/early success loosely based upon
Hot 3-Ball shooting of UNDERCLASSMEN
FR Nic Moore & SOPH Jon Ekey
(Combined: 44-101 | 43.6% from Deep so far)
ILL ST: #5 NAT'L in 3-FG Att per FGA
(Almost Half of their FG Attempts are from Deep: 47%)
Ill St is also 20th Nat’l in % of Pts from Deep (37%)
(& Redbirds are hitting 38% from Deep)
Thus, Illinois State has all eggs in this 3-Point Basket
w/2 Freshman
On the positive side, Ill St is #1 Ast-% Mizz Val
Redbird Upperclassmen Guard Trio has been superb
Jr's Cousin & Jr Brown & previously mentioned
Fr Nic Moore are all exceptional Ast/T-Over %
Both N Iowa & Ill St are currently on 9 Day Layoff
Before their 12/29 Game in Normal
ILL ST HAS POSSIBLE REVENGE SPOT here
N Iowa & Ill St's similar slow-&-slower pace
Combined to produce AVG 97 PT GAMES in 2010-11
(46-44 & 53-51)
N IOWA BEAT ILL ST BY TWO POINTS EACH TIME
BOISE STATE +87 (9-4 | 6-6 ATS)
Boise’s 2011-12 high wire act hit a rough patch last Monday
Broncos lost surprising Big Fr Guard, Igor Hadziomerovic
1 Week ago to season-ending injury
Big blow for this exceedingly undeveloped team
HC Leon Rice forced to go unusually deep into Bench
Upon Boise losing 2010-11 Sr Trio,
#1, #2, #3 contributors to BSU’s 22-Win 2010-11 Team
BOISE SHOWS ALL THE SIGNS OF PROFOUND YOUTH:
Boise is 9-0 at Home, 0-3 on the Road.
Boise is abysmal in eFG% Defense (53% Allowed | #288 of 345 Teams in D-I)
BSU is filling it in from Deep
Boise is 41% from the Three-Point-Line
Sizzling 36% of Bronco Pts come from Deep
VIRGINIA +69 (10-1 | 6-1 ATS)
For all the praise Bennett-Ball is garnering for a 10-1 start….
& Va 8 straight Wins (6-0 ATS)
Again, we must ask, Who have Cavs beaten?
UVa beat MICHIGAN - albeit, at Home
UVa beat G Mason & G Bay at Home
UVa beat Oregon in Eugene
Only loss for Wahoo's was by 2 (TCU) way back in Mid-Nov
The 2 most noteworthy aspects of The Cavs 2011-12
Season-to-Date:
UVa's Dominant margins of many of those 10 Wins
& Virginia's consistent ability to pull away from good teams
Such as Michigan & George Mason
UVa looks exceedingly balanced & deep
Tony Bennett Teams often do many things that HELP Cappers, in right spots
More specifically, UVa DEFENSE is 9th most efficient in D-I
Added to Va snails' pace Tempo (8th slowest D-I)
UVA Strangles & frustrates many otherwise equally matched teams, (UVA ALLOWS Op’s 2nd LOWEST Assisted FG's)
UVA GETS TO LINE - & UVA CASHES FREE-THROWS
Over ¼ of UVa's Pts are Distributed from FT-Line (#12 Nat'l)
UVa shoots 74.3% of those FT's (#29 Nat'l)
Lastly, UVa is #1 LEAST Victimized by Blocked Shots in D-I
Moreover, Virginia has the LUXURY of the great Go-To Guy,
UVA really has one of the TOP Individual Players in the ACC
(Still - mostly unknown)
UVa 6-8 | 241 SR Mike Scott (17 PPG | Crazy 63.3% FG)
TULANE +67 (11-2 | 4-3 ATS)
11-1 Green Wave - Strength of Schedule Rating on Dec 21, 11: DEAD LAST (#345 of 345)
Obviously, this changes for Tulane upon their Game at #1 Syracuse last week
20½ Point Dog Tulane Wave may still be unknown after this one
Even after a narrow 1½ Point Cover
Wave victimized by 19-0 Closing First Half Run,
& down 41-19 at Half
(Even after Tulane squeaked out the 1½ Point Cover
vs. #1 'Cuse in Carrier Dome)
This Game serves as an extreme barometer.
As were saw in Western New York,
We'd be well served to precede w/extreme caution re. Tulane
Wave lost 3 Key Sr Starters from 2010-2011
From a 13-17 Team that finished the Season on a 1-14 slide
& NOW, under 2nd Yr Head Coach, Ed Conroy
The Wave Starts 3 Freshman, & ZERO Sr's
In right spots, vs. Finesse teams, The Wave could be a smart play
TULANE has landed a slew of 3 & 4 Star Bigs - Freshman
TUL 6-10 | 197 Malte Ziegenhagen
TUL 6-10 | 229 Fr Grant Fiorentinos
To accompany the Brute Frontcourt
TUL Soph 6-9 | 217 Soph Thomas
TUL Jr 7-0 | 231 Bruha
None has contributed enough on Black Side of +/- Stat-Sheets
Thus, Wave is the BIGGEST / LONGEST Team in C-USA
Yet floors the SMALLEST Starting 5 - maybe anywhere
TUL 6-0 170 Fr Ricky Tarrant
TUL 6-0 184 Jr Jordan Callahan
TUL 6-3 161 Sr Trent Rogers
TUL 6-5 200 Jr Kendall Timmons
TUL 6-7 208 So Josh Davis
HOUSTON +65 (6-5 | 2-2 ATS)
Even w/+65 POM Rating
Cougs have been about MOST Hard-Luck Team in D-I Hoops
UH stung by close losses, after BIG S-U Road Win at Ark (as +9)
HOU proceeded to lose 3 HOME GAMES IN A ROW,
0-3 vs. OAK | TCU | LSU…by Combined 4 Points
UH Lost to Decent Teams (Avg RPI Op: 64½)
Yet FIVE UH Losses have come by 12 Total Points
UH Team could be a Fragile group, given their age & inexperience, also
Cougars are simply one of the VERY YOUNGEST, Raw Teams in CBB, Even w/2 Multi-Year Starters
HOU Sr 6-3 | 175 Thibodeaux – a standout Guard
HOU Jr 6-6 | 192 Simmons
Both high eFG% Guys,
& SURPRISING, leading scorer, Soph ‘3’ Fwd, A Harris
Houston’s HC 2ND Yr HC Dickey landed THREE Big-Time Pieces
ALL Freshman seeing much action in 2011-12
INCLUDING FRESHMAN, HOU 6-8 | 221 TaShawn Thomas
Collecting productive 11 PPG on sensational 53% FG’s
Houston is just so thin; & close losses are piling up for this squad
Who still just have not played efficient Defense
HOU Lost 12 of last 13 last year w/SR Dominated Team
IDAHO +62 (7-6 | 6-3 ATS)
7-6 Vandals’ Season of improved play
Could really be far better
LAST 3 IDAHO LOSSES: Each by 2-Pts
None of Idaho’s 6 Losses have been by more than 8 Pts
(Opener at Long Beach State)
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +61 (10-2 | 6-5 ATS)
25TH most experienced D-I Team
OREGON STATE +61 (10-2 | 7-1 ATS)
Sincerely cannot say enough
Unselfish play we’re seeing in Corvallis right now
& OSTENSIBLE, CONTINUOUS ROLE-DEVELOPMENT of
OSU Guards: PG Starks fulfilling ‘1’ Spot,
Leaving Cunningham free to play his more natural ‘2’
Where he’s THRIVING
Cunningham
#1 Nat’l Steals
#1 PAC-12 Scoring
OSU 3 | 4’s:
Collier & Moreland Leading Nation in Combined Blocks
Sticking 15-Ft Pick-n-Rolls J’s, ect
OSU Bigs:
Burton sacrificing scoring to lead Nation in 3/4/5’s Asst|T-Over Ratio
I could go on & on…simply BASKETBALL IS BACK IN GILL
W/CRACKLING ENERGY,& genuinely ELECTRIFYING Results
It is an absolute JOY right now….& we’re only in December
OSU’s 2 Losses?
OSU Losing to Vandy, 64-62 in Izod Center (NJ)
Gotta take that one as part of the long season
Yet, Beavers losing to IDAHO as -13½?
Must qualify my status:
I am hopelessly biased, OSU Fan / Alumni
Idaho Win in Corvallis came 43 Hours on Heels of
PAC-12's #1 Scorer, Beavers' Jarred Cunningham losing lifelong friend,
OSU Football Freshman, Fred Thompson
Thompson collapsed & died suddenly (Heart Issue, i.e., Hank Gathers)
Cunningham, PAC-12 Leading Scorer, was 0-9 FG's vs. Idaho
Thompson was good friends w/5 OSU Hoop Players
Game also occured on last day of OSU Final Exams….
It just wasn’t 'in' Beavers to play Hoops vs. Idaho.
LSU +57 (9-3 | 8-2 ATS)
SAINT JOSEPH's +57 (9-3 | 8-1 ATS)
Despite 25TH most inexperienced Team in D-I,
St Joe’s has been RED-HOT vs. good teams
Hawks have Won 6 in a Row ATS
4 in Row Overall,
AFTER AN INEXPLICABLE LOSS TO AMERICAN
COLUMBIA +55 (7-4 | 4-1 ATS)
PENNSYLVANIA +55 (6-6 | 6-3 ATS)
NORTHEASTERN +54 (3-7 | 1-8 ATS)
MILWAUKEE +53 (9-4 | 4-5 ATS)
We gained slightly more perspective into UWM
After Panthers fell to Marquette as expected, 64-50 Last Week
(39TH Consecutive Marquette Win Over UW-Milwaukee)
UWM: Somewhat empty 9 Wins
For such an experienced Team
Panthers FT-Shooting is odious (57.1% | 4TH Worst D-I)
MILW is OUTSTANDING w/3-Pt Defense (25.6% Allowed) &
MILW is also very good eFG (42.4% Allowed | #21 in D-I)
DUQUESNE +53 (7-5 | 6-4 ATS)
MASSACHUSETTS +51 (10-3 | 6-4 ATS)
UMass beat the teams it probably should have,
UMass soundly beaten by 3 Good, 50-125 RPI Teams
UMASS LOSSES
Miami-F (L-8)
C-O-C (L-24)
Fla St (L-20)
NEW MEXICO STATE +48 (8-4 | 5-4 ATS)
STANFORD +47 (10-2 | 6-3 ATS)
Cardinal: #2 Positive Surprise in PAC-12 (after Beavers)
This is now tempered somewhat…
After Thursday HOME loss to ….Butler
(Difficult to know how we should TRULY assess Butler – even now)
Stanford – as so many on this list,
Have too much stuffing – schedule ‘padding’
To accurately determine what 10-2 represents
Stanford took down #67 RPI OKLA ST (Neutral / by 15)
Stanford beat #62 RPI NC State in Maples (by 4)
Stanford LOST by just 6 in NY to #1 Syracuse
Not a poor resume’ – as schedules go.
Josh Owens & a Cast of proficient Underclassmen
Have really ran w/Johnny Dawkins Ball-Hawking Trap-Gm
Dawkins Squad is producing phenomenal D-Numbers:
STAN: #12 ALL D-I (0.881 D-PPP Allowed)
ARIZONA +47 (9-4 | 5-7 ATS)
Cats’ are turning the corner
Absence of Early-NBA Entry,
Departed Derrick Williams
Solomon Hill & 3 Other AZ Vets
Have reminded many that Sean Miller’s Cats’
Were youthful & awfully deep beyond Williams last year
AZ had been slow-starters under Miller’s Dec Boot-Camp
Now, tempered
AZ benefiting from always-sturdy OOC Schedule
Cats have WON modest 3-of-4, including:
vs. CLEMSON (Dominant 16 Pt Win, 63-47)
vs. OAKLAND (Again, Solid 12 Pt Win vs. High Octane Tm)
AZ w/4 Players Avg’ Double-Figures, could be a real sleeper
DELAWARE +47 (5-5 | 4-1 ATS)
SAINT LOUIS +44 (11-1 | 7-2 ATS)
Billies playing headhunter Defense
Among Atlantic 10 Teams:
StL is #1 FG Offense
StL is #1 FG Defense
Differential is +9.3% is DAMN PROFICIENT
Cause for concern?
StL playing EQUALLY MATCHED DEFENSIVE-MINDED TEAM
Issues scoring for considerable stretches
CREIGHTON +44 (10-1 | 6-1 ATS)
One Loss; to St Joe’s
Though Jay’s have played a Marginal Schedule (#266)
CREIGHTON #1 CBB in eFG (59.4%)
#3 Three-Pt Shooting (44.7%)
#6 Offensive Efficiency (1.165 O-PPP)
Heady Stuff for Jays’ Team
Replaced 2 Sr Starters from CBI Finalist Team
Creighton has produced some nice Wins in 2011-12:
Iowa
Northwestern
Nebraska
San Diego State (on Road)
IOWA STATE +44 (9-3 | 4-5 ATS )
Iowa State has put together exceptional numbers in 2011-12
Cycs were expected to have an adjustment period,
Rebounding from Heavy-Starter dominated 2010-11
ISU’s HC Hoiberg & his 6TH Lowest 2010-11 Bench Minutes
In Cyclones 16-16 Yea
Iowa St has inexplicably RAISED already superb shooting
ISU is shooting a sparkling 55% eFG (#16 D-I)
Centered on THREE-POINT-SHOOTING;
Not just High Percentage (38.6% | #44 D-I)
But ISU’s 3’s represent:
43.2% of all Cycs 3 Pt Att’s &
More than 1/3 of ISU’s TTL PTS (34.7%)
INDIANA +43 (12-0 | 7-0 ATS)
Impatient IU fans may disagree,
YET Creen’s Hoosiers could be considered
“Ahead of Schedule” at this point
Nearing 2012 w/o a LOSS?
IU could become OVERVALUED very soon
(if not already)
PEPPERDINE +33 (6-5 | 5-3 ATS)
MARSHALL +33 (9-2 | 3-3 ATS)
The Herd could be legit C-USA Title Contender
Marshall’s exceptionally talented, yet raw squad
Has repeatedly proved their legitimacy so far:
Playing #1 Syracuse close in Dome (62-56)
Marshall has amassed a number of quality Wins:
at Cincy (73-69 OT)
at NC Wilmington (69-64)
IONA (82-63)
BELMONT (87-86)
Tough to argue w/this production;
Marshall must be considered a C-USA Title Dark Horse
Marshall STILL must prove it in February & March
BIG Games could provide great fade $
Marshall must improve in several shooting departments
To have consistent success in Conference Play, most notably:
3-PT SHOOING (27.5% | 28TH Lowest D-I)
FT-SHOOTING (62.4% | 47TH Lowest D-I)
Herd: Weakest 3-Pt & FT Team in C-USA’s Top Tier
Conversely, Marshall is worth a deep look
vs. Weaker Frontcourt Teams
MARSHALL’s Brawny, Experienced Frontline:
MSHL Sr 6-6 | 222 Pena
MSHL Jr 6-8 | 226 Tinnon
MSHL Jr 6-9 | 244 Goff
Produce #2 Offensive Rebounding in D-I
Marshall brings 2 disruptive blocked shot monster ‘Projects’ off Bench:
MSHL Soph 7-2 | 241 Mbao
MSHL Jr 6-10 | 245 Spikes
Yet neither can produce Offensively enough to stay on floor
(Combined 35% of Marshall Floor Minutes in 2011-12)
Yet, together they are 3-18 FG (Mbao: 0-9 FG)
Marshall’s impassioned Offensive Rebounding
Invariably difficult for any team to withstand
MSHL Out-muscled CINCY (on Road)
Herd w/17 O-REB
HERD TINNON w/6
MSHL is getting better & more dominant w/o-Reb:
Herd Outperformed Op’s on O-Glass, from Cincy Game fwd:
Marshall at Cincy +6 (17-11)
Marshall vs. Ohio +4 (18-14)
Marshall at Syracuse +12 (20-8)
Marshall vs. Iona +15 (19-4)
Marshall vs. High Point +12 (18-6)
Marshall vs. Belmont +7 (14-7)
Marshall vs. WV Tech +9 (22-13)
CIRCLED GM:
WED 1/18: MARSHALL vs. WVU (Neutral)
OOC Game vs. Rival Mounties
Fascinating matchup
GEORGETOWN +31 (10-1 | 6-0 ATS)
JT-III’s seat must be cooling a bit these days in DC
WED Gm at Unbeaten Louisville will tell us more
G-Town’s 2-0 Record vs. Memphis
G-Town’s Win Over Bama
Even Hoyas gritty 4-Pt loss to KU
May be indicator that G-Town’s great D-Numbers
+ G-Town’s Huge Size advantages
Should translate into continued, sustained success
In Big East Play this season
CALIFORNIA +31 (10-3 | 7-4 ATS)
One of the MOST Talented Starting 5’s in PAC-12
YET: The thinnest Bench in PAC-12 IS THINNER STILL, now
Bears ‘nagging injuries this past week
To Starters Gutierrez, Kamp
& Subsequent wire-to-wire Vegas Win
Highlighted this Bears’ tightrope act better than words could
All Teams want to stay healthy
Cal really NEEDS TO
w/Key Post 6TH Man
CAL 6-10 | 222 Soph Richard Solomon
Is now out for several weeks
Thus, far less proficient 3 | 4 Bench Players,
CAL Fr Kravish &/or
CAL Soph Jeff Powers must fill in
Bear Starters also must sustain Heavy Minutes
Thru Conference Season to have a Shot
At Conf Title many assume Bears are locked into
Bears 3-Point Shooting has been sensational (43%)
VA COMMONWEALTH +29 (9-3 | 7-4 ATS)
Shaka Smart has his VCU Rams thriving again despite:
Dubious Final-4 Bull’s-eye
Losing FOUR SENIOR STARTERS from implausible
Losing 3 of first 6 Games in 2011-12
Rams have now Won 6 in a Row; all by Double-Figures
Though VCU is clicking; they remain exceedingly youthful
Rams crazy-good Defensive Numbers
Are destined to return to reasonable rates in Conf Play
OKLAHOMA +27 (9-1 | 4-3 ATS)
NEVADA +26 (9-3 | 8-2 ATS)
2011-2012 UNDERPERFORMERS
UTAH -165 (3-9 | 3-7 ATS)
The best thing to happen to Utah this Season:
BTB Home Dates vs. Big Sky Low-Tier Squad Idaho State
& WCC Cellar-Team, Portland
Thus, Utes now WON 1st & 2nd D-I Gms of 2011-12
Until these two patsies, UU was 0-8 vs. D-I Opponents
LOSING by AVG MARGIN of 21.4 PPG
Utah IS “#308 RPI-Bad” & EARNS THE TITLE,
‘Lowest Major Conference RPI-Team’
UU is lower than Fordham (by 22 Spots)
Fordham is lower than next Major Team,
Rhode Island - by 49 spots
Ken Pomeroy’s Binomial Rating System:
UU’s Odds of going WINLESS
In Utes initial PAC-12 Season are 15%
Bloodstained UU season stat-sheet
Can be explained by many circumstances,
Utah’s 1st Year HC Krystowiak lost Marquee Postman,
UTAH 7-3 | 263 Sr DAVID FOSTER for the season
This is an exceedingly painful loss
Especially since UU has adjusted to a new scheme
Taylor-Made for POST-ZONE-DEFENDER such as Foster
(Didn’t really fit Jim Boylin’s Transition Game)
Lastly, UU’s only truly offensive-minded, talent,
(who can create offense)
UTA PG 6-0 | 200 Sr Josh Watkins
Has been in Larry Krystowiak’s Dog House
Suspended for 2 Gms thus far,
Adding another challenge – where UU already has too many
MARYLAND -100 (7-3 | 2-5 ATS)
Md opened 2011-2012 filled w/unanswered questions
Offseason spectacle in College Park
Centered around the awkward, poorly-timed, departure,
Cantankerous, ACC-fixture
Md HC Gary Williams
Losing Multi-Decade Figurehead Coach,
Whom led the School to a National Title
Is certain to loom large for any school
Offseason drama has spilled over into Md’s regular season
Have Terps in Turgeron’s 1ST Year (7-3 | 2-5 ATS)
Truly slipped 100 RPI Spots in 10 Games?
At 7-3?
The answer is somewhat ambiguous; probably
Even at 7-3, Md has been less-than-proficient in 2011-12
MD vs. 3 Top-100 RPI Teams:
0-3 S-U
0-3 ATS
AVG MARGIN in These 3 Games: -18½ Pts
These 3 Losses to decent, yet hardly dominant teams
ILLINOIS 71, MD 62
IONA 89, MD 63
ALABAMA 62, MD 42
Md’s 7 Wins have been narrow margins (5.9 PPG)
Md’s 7 Wins also vs. Teams that Avg’d 229 RPI
PORTLAND -89 (3-10 | 3-9 ATS)
Pilots’ 3-Year run of 20-Win Seasons is clearly done
WRIGHT STATE -88 (6-8 | 5-6 ATS)
EVANSVILLE -83 (5-5 | 2-5 ATS)
Aces are struggling to WIN Close Games
Despite quality opponents
Aces abnormally undermanned (size-wise) at every position
Evansville’s Tallest Starter: 6-6 Sr Fwd Harris
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM -83 (3-7 | 2-7 ATS)
Blazers’ plunge
Has been more profound than most expected
As we know, UAB’s broke thru in 2010-11
Blazers’ captured C-USA 1ST Place season last year,
Yet did so riding the talented Senior Guard duo:
C-USA P-O-Y Aaron Johnson
1ST Team All-Conference, Jaamar Saunders
Even w/3RD Star Player Sr Swingman,
Cam Moore in Blazer Lineup
UAB is in poor shape right now
WILLIAM & MARY -83 (2-10 | 1-7 ATS)
THREE DEMORALIZING INJURIES for Tribe,
Have rendered William & Mary’s 2011-12 Season:
‘Endurance & Survival’
BIGS: Rusthoven, Gaillard & Returning Starter, Ludwick
Fwds all expected to anchor the Tribe Front Line
Hard to forecast how this will play out
Yet W-Mary may be difficult team to gage all
DETROIT-MERCY -81 (6-8 | 3-8 ATS)
(Still like calling them that)
ARIZONA STATE -74 (4-8 | 3-9 ATS)
Transition Year in Tempe
ASU HC Sendack’s Methodical, Defense-First Scheme
Can look downright ugly
when his Teams lack a go-to scorer
ASU is not easy-on-the-eyes Basketball
ASU in midst of Three Losses in a Row;
by 7 Combined Points
May not get better this year, or this WEEK
As Devils face Down-State Rival Cats
In Desert Duel this week
BOSTON COLLEGE -69 (5-7 | 3-3 ATS)
NC-GREENSBORO -68 (2-11 | 5-6 ATS)
EAST CAROLINA -68 (7-4 | 3-2 ATS)
UTAH STATE -67 (8-5 | 5-4 ATS)
RHODE ISLAND -66 (1-11 | 3-8 ATS)
Rams are a mess at 1-10
Rhodie has lost SIX Gms at Home,
& 7 in a Row, both S-U & ATS
Including Two embarrassing Losses to Ivy Teams
Rams are depleted team
2 (Temp) Suspensions
2 Key Injuries
Most notably, Rams lost Nic Malesevic:
RI’s versatile Jr 6-7, Top Defender
RI’s best Offensive Rating
RI expects to get Guards Malone & Baron back from Academic Suspension,
Yet Rhodie is truly a discombobulated Team right now
Rams ability to compete vs. Top ½ of D-I RPI Teams
Just not there at this point
IOWA -64 (8-5 | 4-4 ATS)
BUTLER -62 (6-7 | 2-8 ATS)
Target on 2011-2012 Bulldogs’ Chest – again
Probably just 1-piece of overall problems
Critical Depth issues & 2010-11 Roster Losses
BUTLER (AGAIN) more ambitious S-O-S than ever
(Bulldogs started 4-4 Last Year)
Yet all of the variables
Painted Butler into impossible corner
Thus, 2011-2012 Bulldogs
Were headed for Sub-.500 Preseason from outset
JAMES MADISON -62 (6-3 | 5-3 ATS)
HAWAII -61 (7-5 | 4-6 ATS)
A Team that may turn around ATS (2-5 ATS)
Since they shoot so many FT’s (25% of Point Dist)
& Hi shoots them quite well at 72.8%
& Bows’ will outsize most WAC Teams
NORTHEASTERN -54 (3-7 | 1-8 ATS)
GEORGE WASHINGTON -52 (4-7 | 2-8 ATS)
SOUTH FLORIDA -51 (7-6 | 4-6 ATS)
MIAMI-FLORIDA -51 (7-4 | 3-5 ATS)
LOYOLA-CHICAGO -49 (5-7 | 4-6 ATS)
CORNELL -48 (4-6 | 2-3 ATS)
GEORGIA -48 (7-5 | 5-5 ATS)
BROWN -46 (5-8 | 2-5 ATS)
UCLA -46 (7-5 | 5-7 ATS)
2 perplexing early 2011-12 season losses for UCLA
Losing at Home (wherever Bruins call it these days)
OPENER TO DEPLETED LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT
& THEN, TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
ALWAYS RAISES UCLA FANS’ TEMPER
In Hindsight, Loyola-Mmt was the embarrassment
MTSU is far from weak D-I Team (#58 RPI)
Losing those games by Double-Figures
Also belies Ben Howland’s difficult conversion
In absorbing the 6-10 Ware Twins (Transfers from UNC)
Into Bruin Lineup alongside 6-10 Josh Smith
Growing Pains - & Shooting problems aside
Bruins are clear #1 Longest Team in D-1,
As Howland tinkers with his plaything,
PAC-12 Opponents are scrambling…
To devise a methods / means
To collapse enough Defense to contain Ware | Smith | War
UCLA has hit soft undercarriage of their schedule, w/5x Wins
The skies could be clearing for Bruins
SAINT JOHN's -44 (6-5 | 3-5 ATS)
#1 most experienced Team D-I in 2010-11
To 2ND Lowest in 2011-12
VANDERBILT -42 (8-4 | 4-4 ATS)
Nat’l Title Contender – so I thought
Vandy’s 3 All-Conference Players,
Have had weak clutch numbers in 2011-12
Really expect this to ‘evolve’ for Vandy – this year
& not convinced that Dores will be LESS than good
(or VERY GOOD)
When Tourney Time arrives
Time will tell
TULSA -42 (5-7 | 4-5 ATS)
DREXEL -42 (6-4 | 3-6 ATS)
HOFSTRA -42 (5-7 | 1-6 ATS)
DRAKE -42 (7-4 | 4-5 ATS)
OREGON -37 (9-3 | 2-7 ATS)
Year 2 in on the Court they have named:
“Deep in the ‘WOODS”
Ducks had 3 Quality Roster Additions
INCLUDING 1ST Rate Post,
ORE Jr 6-11 | 257 Tony Woods (via, Wake Forest)
& Sr 6-7 Olu Ashaolu
Yet, 5 Ore Players have/will Transfer out of Eugene
Ore has a bundle of non-descript Wins
(One decent Rd Win very early at #111 RPI, Neb)
ORE: 0-3 (0-2-1 ATS) vs. Top-50 RPI Teams
SAN FRANCISCO -37 (9-4 | 3-6 ATS)
MONTANA -37 (7-5 | 3-5 ATS)
NOTRE DAME -36 (8-5 | 0-6-1 ATS)
NEBRASKA -35 (8-3 | 3-4 ATS)
PRINCETON -35 (6-7 | 5-5)
TEXAS A&M -34 (8-3 | 1-5 ATS)
The Ag Injuries we all know so much about
Clearing up in time for A&M’s Big XII Season
COLORADO -31 (7-4 | 4-4 ATS)
We will make a CU assessment before Thursday (12/29)
SOUTH CAROLINA -31 (5-6 | 3-5 ATS)
GEORGE MASON -30 (8-4 | 3-6 ATS)
PENN STATE-28 (8-5 | 3-5 ATS)
SAN DIEGO -28 (5-7 | 3-6 ATS)
FORDHAM -27 (5-6 | 2-3 ATS)
PITTSBURGH -27 (11-2 | 3-5 ATS)
Defensive numbers have clearly dropped
Pitt’s losing 1 Promising Freshman / Starter Birch altogether (left Team)
Pitt losing Court Leader, Woodall for Half-Dozen Gms also hurt Panthers
OVERALL: Still inexcusable to lose to Wagner at Home
HC DIXON is VOCAL about his concerns w/Defense;
More notably, MOTIVATION to PLAY “PITT DEFENSE”
We’ll have to stay tuned
RUTGERS -27 (7-5 | 0-6 ATS)
TEXAS-EL PASO -27 (6-6 | 7-1 ATS)
Largely forgotten & another youth-heavy Team
UTEP is 7TH Least Experienced Team
Overachieved thus far in 2011-12
TCU -26 (7-3 | 5-5 ATS)
TEMPLE -26 (7-3 | 5-5 ATS)
NEVADA -26 (9-3 | 8-2 ATS)
TEXAS TECH -25 (5-5 | 1-6 ATS)
WASHINGTON -23 (6-5 | 5-5 ATS)
Freshman playing HUGE Minutes
RICE -23 (8-4 | 1-3 ATS)
WEST VIRGINIA -22 (9-3 | 6-3 ATS)
BRADLEY -22 (5-7 | 4-6 ATS)
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS -22 (3-8 | 5-4 ATS)
CINCINNATI -21 (9-3 | 2-4 ATS)
WICHITA STATE -21(9-2 | 3-5 ATS)
CLEMSON -21 (7-6 | 2-7 ATS)
GREEN BAY -21 (6-6 | 4-5 ATS)
PROVIDENCE -18 (11-2 | 4-3 ATS)
NORTHWESTERN -16 (10-2 | 3-4 ATS)
OKLAHOMA STATE -13 (6-5 | 4-5 ATS)
W-O-W
W-O-W
