Early Look at #1 DUCKS at BEAVS | PAC-12 Power Rankings

1st, to all my counterpart Duck Nation colleagues & contemporaries (Goodfella, et al),

Congratulations...

w/Oregon Ducks Football Program success, and 
Rising to Consensus #1 Team in College Football

Your Ducks have dominated PAC-12 & College Football for many years running

Even w/season not over (4 Big Ones Left), yet
Oregon named as consensus AP #1 Team earlier today

Nothing short of dazzling

Proud as we are of our school & alma mater, Oregon State Beavers (2012 season especially),

I’m truly envious.

PAC-12 POWER RANKINGS

Home Stretch.
Gonna go ahead & drop in Way-Out-West Power Rankings
(Local Mid-Valley Media Group dozen amateur & professionals)

PAC-12 FOOTBALL Week 11 Games crossed me up a bit
Lost w/Utah & Stanford (albeit a ½ point Beaver Cover) &
Admittedly leaned Arizona State & UCLA Covering, as well

Oregon took a lot longer than expected
To produce our only clear cover of the Conference Games we were sided

Two biggest weekend developments:

1.  STANFORD's 27-23 GRITTY HOME COMEBACK WIN OVER OREGON STATE

Cardinal win PAC-12 North ‘elimination’ Game
Stanford takes down #11 Oregon State, 27-23
Sets up Week 12, PAC-12 North Title Game in Eugene

Cardinal overcame 4 disastrous turnovers
OSU again survived early double-figure deficit (0-14)
OSU couldn’t hold a 2-Score, 2ND Half Lead

Beavers 2ND straight week, persevere after falling behind by double-digits
WEEK 10 vs. AzSt, OSU scored 26 consecutive points to overcome 3-14 hole
WEEK 11, OSU suffered their largest deficit of 2012 Season, 0-14 (1Q)
OSU then mounted a 23-0 scoring blitz to respond w/23-14 lead, Mid-3Q

Nevertheless, an enduring axiom,
‘Gaining 3’s in place of of 7’s; especially dicey for road dog’

Such was case for Oregon State at Stanford in Week 11
Even Beavers 23 Unanswered Beaver points were suspect under further scrutiny

Three of the Beavers 5 Drives stalled deep in SU Territory &
Over Half of OSU’s Drives resulted in FG’s,

Stanford stayed in reach
Cardinal were perfect in Red-Zone,
SU: 4-4, w/all TD’s in Red Zone Saturday vs. OSU

Stanford’s balance was a large key
STAN RB Taylor cutting up OSU’s Front-7 for Over 120 Yds on just 19 Carries
Cardinal were surprisingly proficient on the ground vs. Run-Strong OSU DL

Overall, Stanford outgained OSU by 102 Yards &
Stanford’s New QB Hogan proved to be self-assured after 2 early INT’s
Hogan settled down & in the end, was remarkably efficient
Hitting on 75% of his passes, including the go-ahead late 4Q TD

2 Cruel 2012 losses for OSU | “Two slipped away”

OSU’s 2 Losses by 7 Total Points;
Separating Oregon State Beavers from a perfect, unbeaten 9-0 Season

Though every Beaver game has been relatively close
(Beavers Trailed or were tied in Second Half, more than ½ their Wins)
Two Beaver road losses at Washington and at Stanford
Unspeakably painful here in Beaver Territory

Especially on THE day ‘Nike-U’ anointed #1 Team in College Football?
The “what-if’s” are vivid & palpable for everyone in Beaverland today

2.  OREGON (FINALLY) CONSENSUS #1

Obviously, Bama losing to A&M, essentially sealed Ducks path to BCS-Title Gm
If Oregon takes care of their remaining games:
        1.  Nov. 17: Oregon hosts Stanford for PAC-12 North Title
        2.  Nov. 24: Oregon at Oregon State in Civil War
        3.  Dec 1: Oregon hosts PAC-12 Title Game at Autzen Stadium*
             (w/win at home vs. Stanford)
(*Oregon will host winner of Week 12’s UCLA So Cal)

POWER RATINGS

1. OREGON
Ducks finally reach #1; now w/o need for style points or ‘Help’
The REAL Saturday gem for Oregon came
w/prospects of a Title Game with ANYONE except Alabama
Oregon was reportedly ‘walking on eggshells’
Till Chip Kelly broke the ice;
Informed his team that Alabama had indeed lost, &
Team could openly talk about the taboo subjects, such as:

Oregon will be consensus #1
Oregon will conceivably stay #1 for 2 Months
Oregon will be Odds-on-Favorite to Win the Title

MOST IMPORTANTLY
ALABAMA NOW NEEDS ABUNDANT HELP TO REACH BCS TITLE GAME
This is/was KEY for Oregon
Couldn’t have hoped for a better Oregon outcome than possibly MISSING Tide
Then, Alabama NOT ONLY LOSES…THEY Lose IN MID-NOVEMBER?!

Realistically, even though A&M Racked up an astonishing 20-0 lead
The Tide began to get traction on Manzel & the Ags Spread
ONLY ALABAMA (IN OREGON’s collective Mindset)
Has Defensive Speed & schemes to TRULY, POSSIBLY slow ORE Offense
Alabama tackles so well ‘in space’

Now, even though fans & voters still might hope to see Tide vs. Ducks
Wildly remote that 1-Loss Alabama Team could EVER Jump K-State

ND gotta still be on outside, we’d have to conclude (& hope)
Even if Domers’ hammer So Cal by more than 11 (Oregon’s Margin)
Domers vs. Ducks would be Ducks coronation….

WORST of all SCENARIOS?

Baylor somehow pulling 2011 Iowa State-Style Week 12 Shocker
Leaving us w/NOTRE DAME vs. OREGON?
No offense to Jeff Scott / Lou Holtz’es of the College Football Universe,
Yet, Football Fans would have to hope
A 1-Loss Alabama Team would leapfrog Notre Dame after Tide beats UGa
(Might cause hysteria amongst Domer Faithful)
EARLY CAPPING: 11/24 ORE at ORST (CIVIL WAR)
Must add….as a Beaver Fan,
Scenario of a #1 Oregon Team coming to Reser & losing?
Isn’t as far-fetched as folks might think

IF ANY COACH can devise a game plan to disrupt Oregon?
It could be Mike Riley

OSU Staff engineered & implemented Game Plans w/in the last Decade
That took down College Football’s #1 Team (So Cal | Twice)

HOW COULD THIS OSU TEAM 'STAY w/UO'?

1. OSU’s 2012 Defensive Speed

If nothing else, is explosive & truly well disciplined in open-field tackling
I wasn’t convinced of this…till watching OSU DL’s Crighton & Doctor
AT FIELD LEVEL vs. Arizona State
Developing superb leverage on the edges & disrupting ASU’s Spread instantaneously
Crashing the Pocket & not allowing ASU good sight of the Left & Right Tackle Reads

2. Motivation

After BEAVERS LOST to Stanford
OSU’s feint Rose Bowl hopes were dashed
An OSU WIN vs. Stanford (and vs. Cal Week 12)
May have resulted in far less driving force for Beavers; thus, net-negative

OREGON STATE’s vs. OREGON from purely for motivational aspect,
Should be high as ever here in 2012

Had OSU Beat Stanford then Cal,
A BEAVER LOSS to Oregon, whilst sitting at 10-1
May not have changed Beavers destination in that case

In fact, it would have “forced” Beavers into PAC-12 Title Game, also
Losing to #1 Oregon (in that case) wouldn’t set Beavers Back enough to lose Rose Bowl

Follow?

No matter; parenthetically…
OSU NOW enters TWO-WEEKS almost exclusive preparation for #1 OREGON
Mike Riley’s Beavers: 5-1 (ATS & S-U) in Bowls
Further, Riley’s Beavers are 19-5 ATS ‘With Time’

w/OREGON (by their own admission) ‘walking on eggshells’ around Chipper
w/3 of 4 Oregon Defensive Down Lineman OUT or very banged up

THINK OREGON TAKES DELIGHT IN COMING INTO RESER ON 11/24/12?
NEEDING TO WIN TO STAY #1 IN BCS-TITLE GAME?
A WEEK AFTER FACING #14 STANFORD?
A WEEK BEFORE HOSTING #15-ish UCLA? (or #20-ish SC ..again?)
BEING SO BANGED-UP DEFENSIVELY?
FACING BEAVER TEAM W/ANTAGONISTIC, SPREAD-TESTED GAMBLING DEFENSE?

(Of course, Chipper would tell us, Hell yes, bring it on)

Oregon has been unstoppable Offensively…so it may not matter one small bit
I have a suspicion it MIGHT & WILL matter at some point over next 3 Weeks
That occurrence might as well be in Corvallis on November 24, 2012

I seriously LIKE the Oregon State side ‘texture’
Of the Civil War Game as from Beaver Fan AND EVEN MORE, as a Handicapper

Just sayin….

PAC-12 POWER RANKINGS THRU WEEK 11

1. OREGON 
AP #1 Ducks, Even w/Defensive injuries, w/Bama loss, UO arguably Nat’l Title Favorites

2. STANFORD 
Edge to Cardinal based on HTH over UCLA

2. UCLA 
Virtual Tie; Finally Ranked AHEAD of SC in AP, heading into Cross-Town Rivalry

4. OREGON STATE 
What-If’’s galore; '3’s instead of 7’s, Two Rd L’s by 7-Total-Pts keep Beavs from 9-0

5. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
Spoiler. Underachieving Trojans have faint heartbeat

6. WASHINGTON 
Not convinced Dawgs have turned any corners, even 6-4 w/toughest Schedule in PAC-12

7. ARIZONA 
On the upsurge, Pass Defense too poor to get Cat’s in Upper Tier

8. ARIZONA STATE 
Slipping away under duress of harsh back ½ of Schedule

9. UTAH 
Regrouping Utes once again cannot muster Offensive punch w/Freshman QB

10. CALIFORNIA 
Unmitigated underachievement & inconsistency should cost Tedford his Job

11. WASHINGTON STATE 
Turbulent & WINLESS PAC-12, Yr-1 for dangerously loose-lipped HC Leach

11. COLORADO 
CU only W: Wild comeback at Wzu | Buffs are 'Rock-Bottom, Hot Mess' in need of makeover


W-O-W

#10 BEAVERS UNDERDOGS...AGAIN?

Oregon State survived an ugly win over Wazzu Saturday to continue their unlikely, surprising Unbeaten 2012 Season.

Next up for overachieving 'Eager Beavers' is the 4-2 Enigma, BYU Cougars in an exceedingly rare mid-October Intersectional (OOC) Matchup.

After learning the Beavers had cracked the exclusive group of Top 10 College Football Elite, I was asked more than once, not IF, but by how MUCH The Beavers would be favored (odds) in Provo.

Despite a pessimist eye-roll or two, I was forced to respond, 'Don't believe Beavers WILL of SHOULD be Favored here'

Huh?

#10 Team vs Unranked Team? Even on Road, Beavers are Unbeaten.

Take a look at BYU's schedule and one quickly realizes THESE Cougs are a Defensive Machine.

BYU has allowed OFFENSIVE TD to just 1 of 5 FBS OPPONENTS.

BYU ALLOWS 5 FBS OPPONENTS 8 PPG.

And BYU has lost those 2 games by combined 4 points (to Rival UTAH on Road & at Boise State, 7-6)

Darn right, BYU should be favored.

Opening line: BYU by 3.

Lastly, if Beavers were going to pick just one game they might be OK to lose? THIS IS THAT GAME.

Never 'want' to lose.

Yet should this game get away, it cod serve as THE wake up call....for a Beaver Team that is CLEARLY driving past its' headlights at 4-0 & #10 Team in all College Football.

If Saturday's jubilation over beating an inferior Wazzu Team, 19-6 is any indication, this wake up call may HAVE to come from a lost game.

Might as well be this out-of-Conference Game in Provo, Utah.

For what it's worth.

2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL | WEEK 5: Nowhere to go but...

Simple look at FBS Teams thru Week 4 

ATS UNBEATENS (FBS Games ONLY)

4-0 ATS (1 TEAM)

Ball State (3-1 Overall)

3-0 ATS (7 TEAMS)

Northwestern (4-0 Overall)
San Jose State (3-1 Overall)
Western Kentucky (3-1 Overall)
Utah State (3-1 Overall)
Toledo (3-1 Overall)
Fresno State (2-2 Overall)
Louisiana-Monroe (1-2 Overall)

2-0 ATS (6* TEAMS)

Texas Tech (3-0 Overall)
Iowa State (3-0 Overall)
Oregon State (2-0 Overall)
Purdue (2-1 Overall)
Middle Tennessee State (2-1 Overall)
AzSt (arguable) 2-0-1 ATS, at Mizzou

1-0 ATS (2 TEAMS)

Cincinnati (2-0 Overall)
Texas-San Antonio (4-0 Overall, yet 3 Wins Over FCS Teams)

UNDEFEATED TEAMS (27 Total)

17 TEAMS at 4-0

Northwestern (3-0 ATS)
South Carolina (3-1 ATS)
Notre Dame (3-1 ATS)
Florida (3-1 ATS)
Ohio (2-1 ATS)
Minnesota (2-1 ATS)
Kansas State (2-1 ATS)
Rutgers (2-1 ATS)
Louisville (2-1 ATS)
Alabama (2-2 ATS)
LSU (2-2 ATS)
Georgia (2-2 ATS)
Florida State (1-1 ATS)
Oregon (1-2 ATS)
Mississippi State (1-2 ATS)
Ohio State (1-3 ATS)
Texas-San Antonio (4-0 Ov'l, yet 3 Wins came vs. FCS Teams)

8 TEAMS at 3-0

Iowa State (2-0 ATS) 
Texas Tech (2-0 ATS)
Louisiana Tech (2-1 ATS)
Stanford (2-1 ATS)
Texas (2-1 ATS)
West Virginia (1-1 ATS)
TCU (1-1 ATS)
Baylor (1-1 ATS)

2 TEAMS at 2-0

Oregon State (2-0 ATS) 
Cincinnati (1-0 ATS)

ATS WINLESS TEAMS (FBS Games ONLY)

0-3 ATS (9 TEAMS)

Houston (0-3 Overall)
Southern Mississippi (0-3 Overall)
Arkansas (1-3 Overall, only win vs FCS Team)
Virginia (2-2 Overall)
Washington State (2-2 Overall)
Iowa (2-2 Overall)
Miami-Ohio (2-2 Overall)
Wisconsin (3-1 Overall)
North Carolina State (3-1 Overall)

0-2 ATS (5* TEAMS)

SMU (1-2 Overall)
Boston College (1-2 Overall)
Temple (1-2 Overall)
Oklahoma (2-1 Overall)
Mizzou (arguably) 0-2-1 ATS, vs. AzSt* (2-2 Overall)

WINLESS TEAMS* (12 Tms w/o FBS WIN)

4 TEAMS at 0-4

Eastern Michigan (1-3 ATS)
Massachusetts (1-3 ATS)
Idaho (1-2 ATS)
Memphis (1-2 ATS)

6 TEAMS at 0-3

Southern Mississippi (0-3 ATS)
Houston (0-3 ATS) 
Alabama-Birmingham (1-2 ATS)
Tulane (1-2 ATS)
Army (1-2 ATS)
Syracuse (1-2 ATS | Orange have 1 Win v FCS)
Buffalo (technically 0-2; 1 Win is v FCS)

OVERVALUED?

Getting into some analysis of how we might profit from these teams,
It looks like some of the UNBEATEN Teams could really be overvalued

Likely Candidates?

RUTGERS 
BAYLOR
OHIO
KANSAS STATE
TEXAS

Many teams on these lists 
(Overachievers & Underperformers)
Could comprise different type of lists, I.E.,

NOWHERE TO GO BUT....DOWN?

Oregon State

Don't enjoy making this presumption....
Yet, Beavers have not trailed 
Beavers have also not  faced any real adverse situation, 
(Only 2 Games played)

Rutgers

Back up into one of better Rushing Teams in Big East
AFTER 3x Years of bringing up the rear
Teams are loading up vs. Rutgers RB Soph Jamison 
Forcing Knights to take to the Air

Probably a matter of time before Rutgers is exposedt

NOWHERE TO GO BUT....UP?

Oklahoma

Sooners Defense? 
Is just too talented & really HAS to get better

OU #106 in Tackles for Loss (FBS)?
OU TIED FOR LAST, FBS in Sacks/Gm? (0.33)

MANY TEAMS to add to these lists 
We'll do this as the week progresses

All the best, guys


W-O-W

2012 CFB HIGHFLYERS & DISAPPOINTMENTS

2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Preparing for Week 4
Primitive look at Extremes thru 3 Wks
May give indication of Over/Under Valued Teams (ATS)

ATS HIGHFLYERS
(Teams averaging OVER TD ‘Cover’)

1.  L-MON 1-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +22 Pts
2.  FRES 2-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +21 Pts
3.  CINCY 2-0 (1-0 ATS) Covered only FBS v Pitt +19½ Pts
4.  AZST 2-1 (1-1 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +19.2 Pts
5.  TXTCH 3-0 (2-0 ATS) AVG MARGIN +18.2 Pts
6.  ARIZ 3-0 (2-0 ATS) AVG MARGIN +16 Pts
7.  PURD 2-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +15.7 Pts
8.  TXAM 1-1 (1-1 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +15½ Pts
9.  BAMA 3-0 (3-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +14.3 Pts
10. SJSU 2-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +14.3 Pts

ATS DISAPPOINTMENTS
(Teams averaging OVER TD ‘Cover’)

124. ARK 1-2 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -32½ Pts
123. COLO 0-3 (0-2 ATS) ATS MARGIN -25 Pts
122. HOU 0-3 (0-3 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -23 Pts
122. NAVY 0-2 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -23 Pts
120. VTCH 2-1 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -16.7 Pts
119. WISC 2-1 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -16.2 Pts
118. CMCH 1-1 (0-1 ATS) Failed Cover only FBS v MchSt -16 Pts
117. MASS 0-3 (0-3 AVG) ATS MARGIN -15½ Pts
116. EMCH 0-3 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -14 Pts
115. ARMY 0-2 (1-1 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -14 Pts

+ PPG MARGIN

1.  FLAST +52 (First FBS Gm Sat 52-0 over WF)
2.  TXTCH +41½
3.  BAMA +38
3.  LSU +38
5.  WVA +35
5.  BAYL +35
7.  TEX +33.3
8.  SCAR +28.3
9.  K-ST +26½
10. UGA +26.3

-PPG MARGIN

124. MASS -42
123. SMU -40
122. NMEX -40
121. HI -39
120. MIA-O -36½
119. CMCH -34
118. NAVY -33½
117. KENT -33
116. COLO -30
115. IDA -28½
114. ARK -27½

FYI


W-O-W

2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL | ACC & BIG EAST WINS

2012 WIN TOTAL ASSESSMENTS

ACC & BIG EAST

ACC

FLORIDA STATE 9½ WINS (Over -170 | Under +150)


Phil Steele’s widely critiqued 2012 prediction bears repeating: 

Florida State Seminoles - 2012 National Champions


OVER 9½ WINS is definitely worth a serious look w/Steele endorsement


Fisher’s Noles underachieved a bit in 2011,
Though they get a well-deserved partial pass
After losing a staggering 46 Game Starts to Injury
(7th Most in FBS)

FSU still went a respectable 9-4 

FSU 2012 up-side IS unmistakable


FSU TALENT


FSU also brings by far the most 20 Preseason All-Conference Players  
(Clemson is a distant 2nd w/13)


FSU fields FOUR 2012 Preseason All-Americans
(Tied for 4th most FBS)


Florida State Offense
Most obviously, return of 100% healthy QB EJ Manuel is #1 Key
Manual is legit game-changing, Heisman Candidate (even if a ‘Darkhorse’)
FSU QB Manuel, ACC’s 2012 Preseason All-Conference QB 


Florida State Defense
Noles’ bring unthinkable 10 Preseason All-Conf Defensive Players to field


Florida State Special Teams
FSU fields FBS’ #1 Rated 2012 Preseason Special Team


FSU EXPERIENCE


Florida State Offense FSU brings back 88% of their 2011 Offensive Yardage (#7 Nat’l)


Florida State DefenseFSU returns 9 of 11 Starters from #4 Nationally Ranked Defense


FSU SCHEDULE


Not easy - yet has some favorable
Noles 0 Road Games till 09/29/12
FSU draws #1 ACC Contender, CLEMSON at Home 
FSU draws rival FLORIDA at Home
FSU does have to travel to Blacksburg
Yet, Noles play at VT following Bye Week


FSU’s 1 significant Trap?
Noles Road Game #1 (09/29)

Florida State at South Florida
Just after THE Big One vs. Clemson

Lastly, FSU has a few noticeable barbs on their resume’      
    1. FSU lost Top Two 2012 Tacklers
    2. FSU returns ‘just’ 50 Career OL StartsNevertheless,

FSU truly looks like a BCS Title Contender
Yet, this much VIG makes risking more than ¼ Unit a bit impractical 


¼ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
FLORIDA STATE | OVER 9½ (-170)

______________


VIRGINIA TECH 9½ WINS (Over +140 | Under -160)
NO LEAN

_______________

CLEMSON 8½ WINS (Over -155 | +135)
NO LEAN

_______________

NORTH CAROLINA ST 7½ WINS (Over -130 | Under +150)NO LEAN

_______________
NORTH CAROLINA 7½ WINS (Over -135 | Under +115)
(COACHING CHANGE = QUESTIONABLE CALL)

1st Year HC Fedora (Southern Mississippi)
Scheme Change (Spread Option)

NC brings 3 Preseason All-Americans
Heels are also 7th Most Seniors on their 2-Deep

Lastly, Tar Heels have 17th easiest FBS schedule

Coaching Change & higher VIG than we’d like
Keeps this as a lean only

UNC LEAN: OVER 7½ WINS

_______________

GEORGIA TECH 8 WINS (Over +125 | Under -145)

GA TECH LEAN: UNDER 8 WINS

_______________

VIRGINIA 7 WINS (Over +150 | Under -170)

Like Wahoos to come back to the Pack & land Under 7
Yet – as we’ve said -- too much VIG to put real $ on it


UVA LEAN: UNDER 7 WINS

_______________

MIAMI-FLORIDA 7 WINS (Over +130 | Under -150)

Canes’ have big-time issues replacing Offensive Production
Miami lost all but 24% of their Offensive Yardage (9TH Lowest FBS)
Miami also brings back just 36 OL Starts

Hard to make a play here
Less-than-easy schedule & New Cats all over the field

‘Gun to Head’, we’d wager Canes’ Under

MIAMI LEAN: UNDER 7 WINS

_______________

WAKE FOREST 5½ WINS (Over +130 | Under -170)


Even though WF could likely start 4-0
Wake has a very heavy midsection group of 6 GamesWhere they figure to WIN ZERO:
(UNC, at FSU, at UVa, CLEM, at NCSU, at ND)
Thus, the Deacons reaching SIX Wins (5.5)
Even w/decent QB (Jr QB Tanner Price),
Wake Forest has 3rd LEAST OL Starts Returning (Just 17 Career Starts)

Thus, from this Roster, & ONLY 4 Offensive Starters back,
Odds of Wake Forest repeating or EXCEEDING their 2012 Win Total (6)?

Quite Poor 

½ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
WAKE FOREST | UNDER 6 (-140)

NO PLAY (ON WF 5½ WINS)
Total Win Total moved - would have wagered ½ UNIT at UNDER 6

________________

BOSTON COLLEGE 5½ WINS (-110)

BC rebounded rather well from 1-6 Start (0-5 ATS first 5)
(Including Home Loss to Duke)

Only Maryland lost more starts to injury than BCAs Boston College regained team health & as underdogs in last 7 Games,
BC finished 3-2 in their final 5 Games
BC Returns all but 1 Offensive Starters (17 Overall)

BC LEAN: OVER 4½
Total Win Total moved from 4½ to 5½
NO LEAN (ON 5½)

______________

MARYLAND 4½ WINS (Over +110 | Under -130)

MD 2011 hardest hit by Injury of all FBS Teams (statistically)

Terps lost 22% of all potential 2011 Game Starts
(59 Total Starts Lost in 2011)

Will an ‘average’ Injury season in 2012 DOUBLE Md’s Win Total?

Probably NOT

Terps bring 15 Starters Back, including 9 on Defense
w/4 of Terps Front 7 being named to ACC Preseason All-Conference Team

ALL Sr Returning Starters:
    1st Team MD Sr DT Vellano
    2nd Team MD Sr NT Francis    
    3rd Team MD Sr LB Hartsfield
    4th Team MD Sr LB Drakeford

All that Sr Talent & Experience anchors Md Defense
As mentioned, hit hard w/27 Starts lost to Injury in 2011
Yet also ranked dead-last ACC (#96 Nationally) in 2011
Md Front-7 is abundantly talented
MD DL’s Ranked 3rd in ACC (just behind VT & FSU)
MD LB’s are also Top Third ACC

Yet, Md Secondary was altogether porous in 2011
MD tied Duke for weakest ACC Pass Defense (#95 FBS)
Md 2012 Secondary is seen as 2nd weakest in ACC

Even w/the aforementioned All-Conference pieces,
Md overall talent nucleus Ranks #11 of 12 ACC Programs
MD fields just 7 of ACC Preseason Top 112 Players
(Only DUKE w/2 has fewer, Md is Tied for #11 w/UVa)

Terps 2011 Special Teams were 4th lowest among BCS-Conf Programs (#107)

Md doesn’t project any higher this Season

SCHEDULE - Brass-Tax for Md to Reach or surpass 4 Wins

1-0 (Md opener vs. William & Mary)

Terps will conceivably have to go 3-5 in the following group of 8 Games:  
   at Temple
   CONNECTICUT
   at West Virginia
   WAKE FOREST
   at Virginia
   NORTH CAROLINA STATE
   at Boston College
   GEORGIA TECH

Terrapins would clearly have to reach 4-5 Record
Before an inevitable, built-in, season-ending, 3-Game Losing Streak portion:
  
   at Clemson
   FLORIDA STATE
   at North Carolina
   (Loss-Loss-Loss)

Another way to see it,
CAN ‘healthier’ Maryland Team do what they could NOT Last Year..

CAN MD WIN 1 ROAD GAME?

Terps WEEK 2 Contest at Temple looks to be the primary opportunity

IF Md wins 1 of the 2 ‘Winnable’ Roadies;
(at Temple, at BC)

Then Terps only have to SPLIT 4 Home Games
(UCONN, WAKE, NCSU, GA TECH)

Can’t see it happening

Md is consistently inept on Road
Terps 0-5 (1-4 ATS, w/4 Game ATS Road Losing Streak & counting)

Md was winless on Road 2 of last 3 Seasons
Md also 6-15 ATS on Road over 4 Seasons

Md Scheduled Starting QB Jr 6-3 | 205 CJ Brown
Has 3 Career Starts, in 2009
He’s mobile; w/a 75 Yd TD Run vs. Florida State in 2nd Start

MD also w/Tailback concerns
MD TRUE FRESHMAN Starting at RB (Wes Brown)

Coupled w/Md OL inexperienceTerps are in BOTTOM 20 of FBS Returning OL Starts (45)

Defenses will be perceptive of a mobile QB
w/sub-50% Completion Ratio; & real accuracy issues

Terps could have profound problems moving the ball

Finally, Phil Steele factors ALL these sorts of Factors
In a strangely obscure segment he terms ‘Projected Stats’ for 2012

Steele lists Md “Projected +/-” Stats:
MD -6.9 PPG in 2012

This is the BIGGEST projected regression in the ACC
For a Team that went 2-10 in 2011
 

½ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
MARYLAND | UNDER 4½  (-150)

_______________

DUKE 3½ WINS (-110)

Total moved from preliminary Win Total 4 WINS
Slight under lean evaporated w/½ Game downgrade

NO LEAN
___________


BIG EAST

LOUISVILLE 9 WINS (Over +150 | Under -170)

Contrarian lean here, despite so much public preseason Cards steam

Louisville touted as lavishly talented
Yet, only Syr & Temp have fewer Preseason All-Conf Selections than Cards

Even w/5 of first 7 Cards Games in Papa John’s Stadium,
Louisville could conceivably lose 2 or 3 of these 7
After FCS Mizz St & rival UKy
Cards face robust UNC Squad
Followed by prickly 3 Game Roadie
   at Preseason SBC Favorite, Florida International
   at 2011 C-USA Runner-Up Southern Mississippi
   at Pittsburgh

Much of 2012 Louisville Steam is likely stems from 2 clear aspects

1. TWO Louisville memorable late-season comeback road wins  (Louisville won at WVU, 38-35 & at South Florida 34-24)

2. 15 Louisville Players Returning, including QB Ted Bridgewater

Nevertheless, Cards were Up-Down 7-6 Team last year
Despite marquee late wins, Cards lost at HOME to FIU
Cards also dropped 3 games after being tied or ahead at halftime (at Marshall, at North Carolina, at Cincinnati)

Just don’t see the ‘Ville as NINE win Team with the schedule they must face

(Yet, again, the VIG is just too step to play more than ¼ UNIT)

Rutgers brings 15 Starters back
Most Notably, Knights return 80% of their Tackles
From 2011 Big East #1 Ranked Defense (314 YPG Allowed)

As we all know, Rutgers New Coach Kyle Flood replaces Jersey Legend, Greg Schiano
RU also has a peculiar 2011 Schedule
Three of Rutgers first 4 are on Road

Knights play in New Brunswick just once (vs. FCS Howard) in September
RU has just 1 home game before Knights Week 6 Conference Home Opener vs. UConn

RU has demanding early Road BTB Road Trip

1.  Primetime ESPN Thursday Night Conference Opener in Tampa, Florida at Conference Favorite, South Florida
(Bulls likely in Revenge Mode; 2011 Rutgers exciting 20-17 OT Win)

2.  Rutgers then travels to SEC Arkansas
Rutgers brings back 76 OL Starts (#13 Most FBS),
Which may or may not help RU this season
Knights were NOT a good Rushing Team in 2011
RU was Dead-Last in Big East Rushing (98 YPG Avg)

Difficult to rationalize putting good money toward Rutgers

NO LEAN

_____________


SOUTH FLORIDA 7½ WINS (Over -150 | Under +130)

Bulls staggering to a 5-7 colossally disappointing season last year

As 2011 Big East Title Dark horse
USF ended up FBS-Worst 1-5 straight up in Close Games
USF held Double-Digit HALFTIME LEADS in 2 of those L’s
   South Florida 16-0 at Notre Dame (L 20-23)
   South Florida 10-0 at Rutgers (L 17-20)

USF was Tied at Halftime of 2 More Losses
   South Florida was Tied 10-10 vs. Cincy (L 34-37)
   South Florida was Tied at Miami-Florida (L 3-6)

Bulls finished w/unthinkable 1-6 Big East Conference Record in 2011

South Florida is still a popular pick to win Big East in 2012
w/15 Starters back, S Fla could really make a Big East Title a reality,

Yet USF may have do so w/modest amount of overall wins

Given Bulls deceptively challenging 2012 schedule:  
   at Nevada
   RUTGERS
   at Ball State
   FLORIDA STATE
   at Temple
   at Louisville
   SYRACUSE
   CONNECTICUT
   MIAMI-FLORIDA
   at Cincinnati
   PITTSBURGH

Bulls are tempting OVER play
Yet too much juice (again) to drop down on Bulls
Especially w/Defense that really MUST make large strides in 2012

LEAN: USF OVER 7½ WINS (-150)

______________

CINCINNATI 7½ WINS (Over +120 | Under -140)

Schedule alone gives Bearcats a reasonable expectation of 8 Wins

CINCINNATI
No True Road Games till 10/20/12
Just 3 Road Conf Games, include newest Big East member (Projected last place), Temple

Back loaded schedule should be highly beneficial for Bearcats
Cincy has an uncommon opportunity to ‘ease into things’

Cincy has 7 New Starters on Offense

More Importantly, Cincy returns just 42% of their 2011

Offensive Yardage - from Big East’s 2ND Most Potent Offense
 
Even w/decent schedule, were staying away from Cincy

NO LEAN

_______________

PITTSBURGH 7 WINS (Over -120 | Under EVEN)
(COACHING CHANGE = QUESTIONABLE CALL)

New Pitt HC Paul Christ inherits a nearly intact Panther Offense returns nearly all its 2011 Playmakers
Pitt brings 93% of their Offensive Production back
On the downside, Pitt is starting over on Defense
The Panthers return just 48% of their 2011 Tackles (4TH fewest FBS)

Pitt schedule exemplifies slack in a stripped down Big East

Panthers face a two tough OOC Games   
   VIRGINIA TECH
   at Notre Dame

Yet, Pitt meets 2 FCS Programs, also

Passing on this bag-of-crazy-mixed-nuts that is 2012 Pitt

NO LEAN

_______________

CONNECTICUT 5½ WINS (Over -160 | Under +120)
(Huskies began at 6½)

Flaws?  How Bout SCHEDULE:

Three difficult Roadies  
   at South Florida
   at Louisville
   at Rutgers
Had slight lean w/UNDER back when UConn number was 6½

Not touching it now

NO LEAN
_______________

SYRACUSE 5½ WINS (Over +180 | Under -260)

So much VIG here w/UNDER
Syracuse was poor ATS in 2011 (3-9 ATS)
Wild Card Orange played THREE Overtime Games

Gotta stay cautious & leave Syracuse alone

NO LEAN

_______________

TEMPLE 4½ WINS (Over +155 | Under -195)
(DRASTIC CHANGES = QUESTIONABLE CALL)

Owls move from MAC to Big East
Yet Temple’s timing probably couldn’t be worse

TEMPLE Just 8 Starters Back
From Owls breakthrough 9-4 (9-4 ATS) 2011 Season

Temple returns 2ND Lowest % of Defensive Tackles in FBS
Temple returns 10TH Lowest % of Offensive Yardage in FBS

Very difficult to gage Temple

¼ UNIT | 2012 FBS FUTURES WINS
LOUISVILLE | UNDER 9 (-170)

________________

RUTGERS 7½ WINS (Over -175 | Under +135)
(COACHING CHANGE = QUESTIONABLE CALL)

Knights would probably be well worth substantial ‘OVER’ consideration, (w/o all this VIG)

Lastly, Maryland may have some 2012 Defensive StrengthsTerps have big-time issues on Offense - especially QB

NO LEAN