TICKETCITY CACTUS BOWL
Fri Jan 02, 2015 | 10:15 PM, EST | ESPNSun Devil Stadium | Tempe, Arizona
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 6-6 (4-5 Conf | 5-6 ATS)
WASHINGTON HUSKIES 8-5 (4-5 Conf | 7-5 ATS)
Two teams w/more similarities than meets the eye
OSU Cowboys
Cowboy HC Gundy is a dynamite 70-42 ATS throughout his OSU career
However, 2014 was the first ATS Losing Year since 2014
2014 was probably the most topsy-turvy since Mike Gundy’s Year One
2004 was also the first and last time OSU wasn’t Bowling in the Gundy Era
OSU is clearly relieved to have miraculously gained this seemingly hopeless Bowl Bid
OSU’s unlikely Bedlam upset cleared the way for the 6-6 entry
Of all of Mike Gundy’s accomplishments
OSU’s crazy 38-35 OT win over OU was about as inconceivable as it was inspiring
Down 14 under 5 minutes left, OSU needed 2 implausible TD’s to force OT.
A quick Cowboy 45 yard Rudolph to Shepherd TD strike on a 2 play, 60 Yard Drive
As we know, an UNTHINKABLE 92 Yard OSU Punt Return w/0:52 to play to Tie
Though plenty of arguments support claims that OU’s Bob Stoops repeated, botched game-management, the Cowboys seized a sensational time to reverse Gundy’s poor record vs OU (Gundy’s Oklahoma State Record is still just 3-7 ATS and 2-8 Overall vs Sooners)
Oklahoma State needed this gift straight up Bedlam win - as 21 point Dog - to even gain Bowl Eligibility - yet the OSU bowl appearance probably enshrouds an otherwise unequivocally weaker natural landing spot for 2014 Cowboys
OSU was essentially a bottom third Big 12 Team; from an analytic standpoint
OSU -120 YPG Conf game differential places Cowboys into an exceedingly poor statistical class
Now, OSU faces a solid, motivated UW team who has a full month preparation time
Until Pokes’ Bedlam miracle win,
OSU’s 3 Conf Wins came vs 9-27 Conf Record teams (ISU, KU, TT)
BIG 12 Conference Games | Yardage Differential
1. Bay +151
2. TCU +141
3. WVU +86
4. OU +66
5. KSU +53
6. Tex +20
7. TT -34
8. OKST -120
9. KU -163
10. IoSt -190
BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Offense
9. OSU 348 YPG
10. Kansas 307 YPG
BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Defense
8. OSU 468 YPG Allowed (Tied w/KU)
9. Texas Tech 540
10. Iowa State 572
Okie St’s unprecedented QB issues this year has often forced a once-feared, explosive Gundy Double-Quick attack
Into a stammering unit that led all 2014 Big 12 teams in 3-&-Out rate
Oklahoma State expected 2014 to be a retooling year, especially on Defense
OSU lost all their Top four & tacklers & all but ONE of their top ten 2013 tacklers
OSU also lost every single 1, 2 and 3rd Team All-Conf Players from 2013
Then they lost one player they could least sustain:
OSU Jr QB J.W. Walsh, who went down vs FCS Missouri State
OSU’s 6-02 | 204 Jr Daxx Garman stepped in for Walsh, and started strong;
Leading OkSt to a 4-0 record in his initial QB starts
Yet, even as Garman cleaned up vs bottom 3 teams of the Big 12 (TT, Iowa St & KU)
Garman’s QB rating continued to drop w/each uprise in OSU’s competition
Garman QB Rating, game to game
185
117
103
68
99
88
Garman threw 9 TD | 11 INT & Yards per completion dropped game-to-game to a microscopic 4.5/pass
OKST scored 10 PPG in Garmon’s last 4 Starts
The passing game & QB play was so anemic in the late/mid-stretch of OSU’s 2014 season
Gundy decided to burn the Redshirt Year of Freshman 6-04 | 217 Mason Rudolph
Rudolph is 1-1 as Cowboys starter
OSU QB & Point production (33 PPG) has been lifted significantly
Nevertheless, OSU is very one-dimensional on offense & finished next to last in Big 12 Rushing
OKST averaged 18 PPG in their final 8 games
UW Huskies
Contrary to Oklahoma State, UW probably finished BELOW where they should have
The Dawgs lost two critical games (20-13 vs Stanford | 27-26 at Arizona)
Where UW truly commanded dominance, yet found themselves on the short end of the scoreboard
The Huskies team lines & stat were 0-2 in games dominated
Washington’s offensive skill position spots had a few similarities with OkSt
UW entered 2014 with significant replacements
After UW’s multi-year, standouts QB (Price) & RB (Sankey) departed
Yet, new HC Peterson inherited a Washington team deep & talented on the Lines
U-Dub is one of the most dominating, experienced on both sides of the trenches
Like OSU, The Dawgs finished the year on a high note
The Huskies are peaking & the tumblers are finally clicking into place under 1st year Coach Chris Peterson
Moreover, the Huskies have truly attained that deadly balance that made Peterson’s Boise teams so potent
Washington Balance over their final 5 Games
UW Pass 236 | UW Rush 206 (UW 38 Points)
UW Pass 211 | UW Rush 155 (UW 30 Points)
UW Pass 245 | UW Rush 259 (UW 26 Points)
UW Pass 226 | UW Rush 255 (UW 37 Points)
UW Pass 188 | UW Rush 249 (UW 31 Points)
The trick here is the emergence of UW RB So Dwayne Washington
Hat-trick of 100-Yard Rushing Games to end the 2014 season for Huskies
UW D Washington 140 Rushing Yards at Arizona
UW D Washington 100 Rushing Yards vs Oregon State
UW D Washington 135 Rushing Yards at Wazzu
Thus, short lived days of animalistic, sure-fire NFL 1st Round LB Shaq Thompson splitting time - Playing both ways; not only in customary WLB slot, yet also in UW Offensive Backfield? Over
Husky Defense is back to a stingy 363 YPG ball-hawking, turnover producing unit
UW arrived w/solid, top ⅓ Conference talent on all 3 Defensive Units (DL’s, LB’s & Secondary)
UW was a legit 10-win-worthy team that held-onto-their guts in November quite well
Facing a far-less-than-usual Okla St squad...genuinely fortunate to be playing January football
This looks every bit like a mismatch of the several TD margin-variety
Huskies should roll Cowboys
Predicted Score
OKLAHOMA STATE 17
WASHINGTON 34
All the best, guys
