WEEK 5 Shell-shocked Ducks at ambitious Buffs

2015 PAC-12 | WEEK 5 Showcase Game

Sat Oct 3, 2015 | 10:05 PM | ESPN
Folsom Field | Boulder, Colorado

OREGON DUCKS 2-2 (0-1 Conf)
COLORADO BUFFALOES 3-1

Ducks are in unfamiliar territory following a 62-20 Week 4 home loss vs UU
   ORE is unranked in AP Top 25 Poll for the first time in 98 Weeks
   ORE suffered their worst loss in 13 seasons
   ORE allowed the highest point total (62) in 30 seasons
   ORE suffered the worst home loss in 38 seasons

Now, these Ducks are trying to avoid losing to Utah 'twice'

A road game vs Conference opponent w/ sparse talent - CU could be the tonic for UO
Assuming Locke gets the start under Center for Oregon,
The Ducks profess to go back to the original spread Offense Option #1 and #1-B
Pre-Mariota/Thomas/Massoli/Smith basics of seal-block running
ORE RB So 5-11 | 232 Royce Freeman should move to center stage

Freeman carried the ball ½ as much in 2 games since
His 24 demanding carries for 92 yards in ORE near-upset at Michigan State
(Spartans were #1 FBS Rush Defense in 2014)

Freeman is set-up to be Oregon’s workhorse from the outset of 2015
Getting 24 carries in the last TWO games is illogical and will have to change
ORE less likely to throw into 2nd seams w ORE WR Marshall out (inj)
CU Defensive Front-7 should be hard-pressed to withstand the forthcoming ORE grind

As we have all seen, ORE Secondary has been lit-up this season
CU Passing game should provide a lit-up ORE Secondary a lot of improvement opportunities

CU’s banged up QB Sefo Liufau is lowest rated PAC-12 passer vs FBS opponents
Liufau is passing just 58% completion rate w/just 6.0 Yards per pass attempt net

CU WR Spruce is top-notch Senior Receiver
Yet teams have successfully limited Spruce illustrious big play capabilities
Spruce averages just 9.8 yards per catch (vs FBS Teams)

CU Soph 5-11 | 175 WR Shay Fields is the only Buff receiver in the PAC-12 Top 50 receivers

Boiling it down:
For such an eyeball test mismatch, ORE as single digit favorite is unthinkable

Perspective:
ORE lost to two exceptional teams
ORE nearly upset MSU in E Lansing and lost to a supremely prepared UU team
Utes brought a brilliant game plan to Eugene,
Filled with jigger-plays & gadgets – that all clicked into place & worked
YES, it appeared that ORE players ‘quit’ last week while being gashed
It was a new situation for these players & this program
Yet, ORE has arrived at their ‘get-well’ segment of their schedule

CU has played far less challenging schedule than all other PAC-12 Teams
Yet these Buffs have statistically underwhelmed & underperformed
CU lost as a road favorite in the Islands to start the year
Then mounted a comeback in rivalry game vs Colorado State
CU did beat Colorado State in Overtime
Despite Buffs being thoroughly outgained (-155 yards | -9 First Downs) by re-tooling CSU

Reminder:
Colorado was 0-9 in PAC-12 last season (2-25 last 3 years)

Pure value w/Ducks this week

TOP PREDICTION
   OREGON 44
   COLORADO 26
__________

PREDICTION 
   WASHINGTON STATE 31 
   CALIFORNIA 42

All the best, guys
W-O-W

2015 PAC-12 Week 1 Play of the Week

WASHINGTON at #23 BOISE STATE

A lot of injuries, issues & weather can happen in 13 days
This is admittedly very early to make a large play

Yet I just don’t see a better play than this materializing
Nor should this line get any better

PAC-12 Game-of-the-Week

Fri Sep 04, 2015 | 10:17 PM, EST | ESPN
Bronco Stadium | Boise, Idaho

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (8-6 in 2014)
#23 BOISE STATE BRONCOS (12-2 in 2014)

Week One

After an increasingly pressure-packed month of unexpected, poorly-timed off-field problems
Former Boise State Coach Chris Petersen's takes his UW Dawgs into a Boise buzzsaw

Peterson’s former team & school was probably hard-pressed to need additional motivation
They may have a little extra after an unthinkably grueling, entangled, painful week of hearsay and allegations surrounding Peterson, Baylor HC Broyles & and the Sam Ukwuachu transfer from Boise State to Baylor

As we know, Washington coach Chris Petersen has refuted a claim from Baylor coach Art Briles about the violent history of former Boise State and Baylor defensive end Sam Ukwuachu

Either way, Boise State’s Big Blue Nation is reportedly more displeased with Peterson than ever
Including the larger-than-normal group of upperclass Boise State contributing players
Most of BSU’s key players were Peterson recruits

15 of BSU’s two-deep are Seniors
BSU has the 14th most returning letterwinners in FBS

Both Washington & Boise State runs out a new QB starter this season
UW & BSU QB position battles coming out as expected
UW Jr Lindquist and BSU’s So Finley

The Boise revenge factor notwithstanding,
These Broncos are loaded, and have openly claimed a goal of crashing the FBS Top-4

Boise State’s Defense is robust, with top 77% of their 2014 tacklers back this season
Boise State Defense boasts 10 Upperclass Starters
All upperclass front 7 that rivals any FBS top Unit
Legit NFL-Quality stars on the Front line (Tyler Horn) & All-American FS Thompson

After an injury-plagued 3-2 Start, Boise rolled thru 9x wins to end 2014
Including a 38-30 win over PAC-12 South Champion Arizona (Broncs 3rd Fiesta Bowl Win)

RB Jay Ajayi’s 1900 Rushing yards in 2014 may be difficult to duplicate
Yet BSU’s capable Sr Kelsey Young (Stanford Transfer) & Boise have huge experience up front
Boise State returns all 5 OL starters in 2015

Moreover, Washington has so many huge voids to fill
Especially on Defense, where the Dawgs 3 top tacklers from 2014 were NFL draftees
(Kikah, Shelton and of course, the dynamic two-way star, Shaq Thompson)

Mont Lake insiders are openly proclaiming these Dawgs are really gonna struggle
(Wash O/U 4½ Wins (-160) | Boise O/U 10 Wins (+100) at 5-Dimes

Not only did UW lose more NFL-Caliber talent than any other PAC-12 Team
Only the ‘Big 3’ Florida Programs (Fla St, Miami-Fl & Florida) lost more to the NFL than UW
(according to Phil Steele’s Draft Day ‘Hangover’ point system)

UW OL has just 1 of 5 returning starters
With better-than-average 2014 talent, UW was a deceptively weak 2014 team
PAC-12 10th rated offense (5.1 Yards per play avg, #82 Nat’l)

The blue turf is the last place this Chris Peterson UW team should wish to start this year
Boise State travels to BYU in week 2 (and has 4 of their next 6 on the road after UW)
These Broncos may otherwise look to ease up on the gas pedal - vs any other team
Looking for a decisive Boise State win here

PAC-12 Play-of-the-Week
3 UNIT PREDICTION 
WASHINGTON 13
BOISE STATE 41

All the best, guys

W-O-W

2015 Cactus Bowl Preview | Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Washington Huskies

BIG XII vs PAC-12

TICKETCITY CACTUS BOWL

Fri Jan 02, 2015 | 10:15 PM, EST | ESPN
Sun Devil Stadium | Tempe, Arizona

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 6-6 (4-5 Conf | 5-6 ATS)
WASHINGTON HUSKIES 8-5 (4-5 Conf | 7-5 ATS)

Two teams w/more similarities than meets the eye

OSU Cowboys

Cowboy HC Gundy is a dynamite 70-42 ATS throughout his OSU career
However, 2014 was the first ATS Losing Year since 2014 
2014 was probably the most topsy-turvy since Mike Gundy’s Year One 
2004 was also the first and last time OSU wasn’t Bowling in the Gundy Era

OSU is clearly relieved to have miraculously gained this seemingly hopeless Bowl Bid
OSU’s unlikely Bedlam upset cleared the way for the 6-6 entry 
Of all of Mike Gundy’s accomplishments
OSU’s crazy 38-35 OT win over OU was about as inconceivable as it was inspiring 

Down 14 under 5 minutes left, OSU needed 2 implausible TD’s to force OT.
A quick Cowboy 45 yard Rudolph to Shepherd TD strike on a 2 play, 60 Yard Drive  
As we know, an UNTHINKABLE 92 Yard OSU Punt Return w/0:52 to play to Tie

Though plenty of arguments support claims that OU’s Bob Stoops repeated, botched game-management, the Cowboys seized a sensational time to reverse Gundy’s poor record vs OU (Gundy’s Oklahoma State Record is still just 3-7 ATS and 2-8 Overall vs Sooners)

Oklahoma State needed this gift straight up Bedlam win - as 21 point Dog - to even gain Bowl Eligibility - yet the OSU bowl appearance probably enshrouds an otherwise unequivocally weaker natural landing spot for 2014 Cowboys

OSU was essentially a bottom third Big 12 Team; from an analytic standpoint
OSU -120 YPG Conf game differential places Cowboys into an exceedingly poor statistical class 

Now, OSU faces a solid, motivated UW team who has a full month preparation time

Until Pokes’ Bedlam miracle win,
OSU’s 3 Conf Wins came vs 9-27 Conf Record teams (ISU, KU, TT)

BIG 12 Conference Games | Yardage Differential 
1.  Bay +151  
2.  TCU +141
3.  WVU +86
4.  OU +66
5.  KSU +53
6.  Tex +20
7.  TT -34
8.  OKST -120
9.  KU -163
10. IoSt -190

BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Offense 
9.  OSU 348 YPG 
10. Kansas 307 YPG

BIG 12 Conference Games | Total Defense 
8.  OSU 468 YPG Allowed (Tied w/KU)  
9.  Texas Tech 540
10. Iowa State 572

Okie St’s unprecedented QB issues this year has often forced a once-feared, explosive Gundy Double-Quick attack 
Into a stammering unit that led all 2014 Big 12 teams in 3-&-Out rate

Oklahoma State expected 2014 to be a retooling year, especially on Defense 
OSU lost all their Top four & tacklers & all but ONE of their top ten 2013 tacklers
OSU also lost every single 1, 2 and 3rd Team All-Conf Players from 2013
Then they lost one player they could least sustain: 
OSU Jr QB J.W. Walsh, who went down vs FCS Missouri State  

OSU’s 6-02 | 204 Jr Daxx Garman stepped in for Walsh, and started strong; 
Leading OkSt to a 4-0 record in his initial QB starts 
Yet, even as Garman cleaned up vs bottom 3 teams of the Big 12 (TT, Iowa St & KU)

Garman’s QB rating continued to drop w/each uprise in OSU’s competition   
Garman QB Rating, game to game 
   185
      117
         103
            68
               99
                  88

Garman threw 9 TD | 11 INT & Yards per completion dropped game-to-game to a microscopic 4.5/pass
OKST scored 10 PPG in Garmon’s last 4 Starts 

The passing game & QB play was so anemic in the late/mid-stretch of OSU’s 2014 season
Gundy decided to burn the Redshirt Year of Freshman 6-04 | 217 Mason Rudolph
Rudolph is 1-1 as Cowboys starter 

OSU QB & Point production (33 PPG) has been lifted significantly
Nevertheless, OSU is very one-dimensional on offense & finished next to last in Big 12 Rushing 

OKST averaged 18 PPG in their final 8 games 

UW Huskies

Contrary to Oklahoma State, UW probably finished BELOW where they should have 
The Dawgs lost two critical games (20-13 vs Stanford | 27-26 at Arizona)
Where UW truly commanded dominance, yet found themselves on the short end of the scoreboard
The Huskies team lines & stat were 0-2 in games dominated 

Washington’s offensive skill position spots had a few similarities with OkSt
UW entered 2014 with significant replacements
After UW’s multi-year, standouts QB (Price) & RB (Sankey) departed

Yet, new HC Peterson inherited a Washington team deep & talented on the Lines
U-Dub is one of the most dominating, experienced on both sides of the trenches

Like OSU, The Dawgs finished the year on a high note
The Huskies are peaking & the tumblers are finally clicking into place under 1st year Coach Chris Peterson

Moreover, the Huskies have truly attained that deadly balance that made Peterson’s Boise teams so potent

Washington Balance over their final 5 Games 
   UW Pass 236 | UW Rush 206 (UW 38 Points)
   UW Pass 211 | UW Rush 155 (UW 30 Points)
   UW Pass 245 | UW Rush 259 (UW 26 Points)
   UW Pass 226 | UW Rush 255 (UW 37 Points)
   UW Pass 188 | UW Rush 249 (UW 31 Points)

The trick here is the emergence of UW RB So Dwayne Washington
Hat-trick of 100-Yard Rushing Games to end the 2014 season for Huskies 
   UW D Washington 140 Rushing Yards at Arizona
   UW D Washington 100 Rushing Yards vs Oregon State
   UW D Washington 135 Rushing Yards at Wazzu 

Thus, short lived days of animalistic, sure-fire NFL 1st Round LB Shaq Thompson splitting time - Playing both ways; not only in customary WLB slot, yet also in UW Offensive Backfield? Over

Husky Defense is back to a stingy 363 YPG ball-hawking, turnover producing unit
UW arrived w/solid, top ⅓ Conference talent on all 3 Defensive Units (DL’s, LB’s & Secondary)

UW was a legit 10-win-worthy team that held-onto-their guts in November quite well
Facing a far-less-than-usual Okla St squad...genuinely fortunate to be playing January football

This looks every bit like a mismatch of the several TD margin-variety
Huskies should roll Cowboys

Predicted Score
OKLAHOMA STATE 17
WASHINGTON 34

All the best, guys

W-O-W