Monday, August 22, 2011
2011 CFB SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
2011 CFB SCHEDULES
QUICK LOOK-IN's
W/FUTURES' PLAYS ATTACHED
Just pulling up Team Schedules w/1 or more idiosyncrasy
SEC & BIG-TEN SCHEDULES…AS USUAL
Look like some teams w/great big Stadiums
Demanding 1 & Done Deals - Understandable;
w/no Weeks off during Cutthroat Regular Season
Nonetheless, many 4 ROAD | 8 HOME Schedules in this bunch
SEC SCHEDULES
Kentucky
JUST 4 'TRUE' ROAD GAMES
Zero Road Gms till OCTOBER
Yet, Cats October Starts w/a BTB Bang:
at LSU
at South Carolina
Vanderbilt
#1 in FBS: Returning Players
(All 11 Offense | 9 Defense | Both Kicker & Punter)
DORES' SKIP LSU
w/UGa at Home,
VANDY: Must travel to Alabama & Florida
(All 22 Starters & 12 Home Gms may not help Vandy,
Vandy's Conf Opening WIN at Ole Miss in 2010
ONLY Vandy Conference Win in 2 Seasons (1-15)
Tennessee
JUST 4 ROAD GAMES
TENN: LSU & UGa AT HOME
Vols have 2 Biggies on Road
at Florida
at Alabama
Florida
JUST 4 'TRUE' ROAD GAMES
Zero Road Gms till OCTOBER
Gators: ALABAMA comes to Swamp,
Yet, Fla ,travels to LSU the following week
(& at Auburn immediately thereafter)
SMOOTHEST PATH, AFTER HUGE HURDLE
Georgia
After robust opener vs. Boise State in ATL
Dawgs Road opens up
Looks awfully smooth (for SEC Team)
UGa just 4 True Road Games
UGA SKIPS ALABAMA & LSU!
BIG XII SCHEDULES
Texas A&M
4 TRUE ROAD GMS
No True Roadie till Oct 8 (at TT)
A&M does travel to Norman (Nov 5)
Yet, remaining 3 Road Games are never 'easy';
at K-State
at TT &
at Iowa State
May be clearest path to Conf Title in 2011 BIG XII
OFF-THE-RADAR
Baylor
4 True Road Gms
OU & TEXAS travelling to Waco
Only True Road Gm after Oct 29 is to Lawrence
Bears 2011 issues look to be all DEFENSE
Offensively, Baylor brings excellent tools back
BAYLOR: Efficient QB (Griffin: 22-8 Ratio, 146 QB Rating)
BAYLOR: Good Trio of Returning Talented WR Starters
BAYLOR: Better than Avg OL (4 of 5 Ret | 77 OL Gm Starts)
Texas Tech
Deceptive Schedule | Deceptive Team
GOOD: Only Road Gms till Oct 22, Raiders' will be Favored:
at New Mexico
at Kansas
BAD:
TT PLAYS OU, MIZZOU, & TEXAS all on Road
TT takes Bye-Week(s) too early & too late
BYE's: Week 2 & Week 14
TT was 8-5 in 2010 w/Bowl Win Over NW
TT also 4-0 in Close Gms;
Thus, TT may be driving a bit past their headlights
This play may look dead on Oct 21
When TT is sitting at 5-1 or 4-2
YET, NEW TECH QB
SEVEN SOPH's on a Refashioned Defense
Tech oght to have serious issues
When Raiders travel to Norman, Austin & Columbia
PAC-12 SCHEDULES OF NOTE
HIGHEST DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY
Colorado
#1 MOST DIFFICULT SCHEDULE IN NAT'L
7 Road Games
Plus Neutral Rival Game vs. Colo St
Not only Games themselves, yet
Buffs start the Season in Hawaii
Come Back for the Non-PAC-12 Non-Inaugural Opener
Followed by RIVAL Game in Denver vs. CSU Rams
THEN A TRIP TO COLUMBUS, OHIO
To Play Ohio State
ALL IN SEPTEMBER
Welcome to 'The Jungle', Jon Embree
DIFFICULT
Ucla
3 of first 5 on Road, w/o break
at Revenge Seeking Houston to Start
Back Home vs. Revenge-Seeking TEXAS
THEN
at Oregon State
at Stanford
Three more Road Games Later on, also
MISLEADING
Arizona
Cats (as Utah) catch a big break,
STANFORD & OREGON in Tucson
Yet AZ (w/ONE OL Game Start Back)
HAVE the Odd-Year, 5 Road Conference Game Slate,
& also Travel to Stillwater, Oklahoma (Sep 8)
Washington State
Just 3 TRUE FBS Home Games in Pullman
Cougs Face NW-Rival Ore St 300+ Miles Away in Seattle
(CLOSER for Beaver Fans than HOME-STANDING Cougs)
Cougs also play Apple Cup (Rival) Wash in Seattle's Qwest Field
California
Double-Jeopardy
Bears Face NEW PAC-12 Program,
COLORADO in Boulder in NON-COUNTING PAC-12 Game
Bears now play 10 CONFERENCE GAMES
SIX on 'Road'
The Bears 'HOME' Games will be held in AT+T Park (SF)
Utah
Schedule quoted several places as 'EASY'
FORTUNATE, YES...
(Skipping OREGON & STANFORD)
Yet, any schedule that OPENS FBS Play:
at Southern California
at Brigham Young
& includes
at Pittsburgh (Mid-Season)
Is hardly 'easy'
MANAGEABLE
Southern California
Arizona State
Both Play 4 of first 5 at Home
ACC SCHEDULES
MISLEADING
Virginia Tech
VT: 6 Roadies in 2010
VT: Pulverized by Stan 40-12, Orange Bowl
VT: Lost 2010 Catalyst'; #1 QB in ACC
Schedule easier than it Looks
VT: All 2011 Rd Opp had losing 2010 Rec's
East Carolina (6-7)
Marshall (5-7)
Wake Forest (3-9)
Duke (3-9)
Georgia Tech (6-7)
Virginia (4-8)
VT: Just FOUR 2010 Road Gms in 2010,
Yet the Hokies Won All 4
So much public steam VT
VT Over 10 Wins…
Looking every bit like exceedingly square play
Began looking at VT >10 Wins
(Contrarian impulse)
Yet, upon digging into 2011 Hokies,
VT is a square play that works
VT: w/'NEW' QB, have a Shot at 10 WINS?
Yep…Considering;
VT New QB is not just any ol' QB,
VT QB Soph 6-6 | 246 Logan Thomas
Inevitable Comparisons to CAM NEWTON
Size/Strength/Athleticism
VT: Brings back ALL 4 Top WR's Starters
VT Receivers: SR/SR/SR/JR
VT O-LINE: Returns BOTH OG's & BOTH OT's
VT O-LINE: Multi-Year SR's &
VT Only 'New' OL Starter,
VT Soph C Miller, Played all 1 Gm as rFr
VT: DOESN'T FACE Florida State…
Till (likely) ACC Title Game
VT: Got far better as 2010 Reg Season ended
VT: AVG SCORE, L-4 REGULAR SEASON GMS:
Virginia Tech 35 Opponents 14
VT: #4 NAT'L SPECIAL TEAM 10 Yr Avg
VT: +21 Turnover Ratio (2010)
Must allow history to set the trend
VT: Not Likely to suffer the inexorable
'T-Over Ratio Reversal'
Beamers' Hokies have been Positive Turnovers
A whopping 22 of 25 Yrs
Lastly, VT is remarkably consistent against spread
VT: 58-32 (64.4%) ATS Last 7-Years
* Phil Steele: '8 of 9 Sets of Projections:
VT 12-0 when/if they meet Florida State..
IN FACT, Steele is high on the feasibility of
FLA ST vs. VT 12-0 ACC SHOWDOWN…
For what its' worth
OPPORTUNISTIC
Clemson
Nine Offensive Starters Back
6-7 Tm in 2010,
Though Tigers were 4-4 Conference
TIGERS CLEARLY UNDERACHIEVED - AGAIN
CLEM: 1-4 Close Gm Rec
CLEM: No 2011 Road Games till OCT?
Sounds exceedingly "Manageable"
Maybe....How bout this stretch:
SEP 17 AUBURN
SEP 24 FLORIDA STATE
OCT 01 at Virginia Tech
OCT 08 BOSTON COLLEGE
OCT 15 at Maryland
OCT 22 NORTH CAROLINA
OCT 29 at Georgia Tech
No Week off breaks in this run either.
Clemson's 2011 OOC Games:
Defending Nat'l Champion Auburn
Preseason Sun-Belt Favorite, Troy
Rival South Carolina on Road
CLEMSON's SCHEDULE:
NOT TOO EASY, UPON DEEPER ASSESSMENT
Clemson losing Starting QB Parker
(struggled thru Injuries & INT's)
Might not be biggest blow to Clemson
TIGERS, despite 4-4 Record
Was a darn stringy D, esp. in CONF
ONLY VT Held Teams to Fewer PPG in Conf
VT 14 PPG Alwd ACC Gms Only
(CLEM 15.8 Pts Alwd, ACC)
Conversely,
Tigers losing 3 of Top 4 Tacklers also looks bad on Paper;
CLEM's 'JUST' 5 D-STARTERS BACK?
Not as damaging w/60% of Clem TACKLES still in Clem
& ALL BUT ONE D-STARTER HAVE GOOD EXPERIENCE
& ALL BUT ONE ARE UPPERCLASSMEN
CLEM OFFENSE ALMOST HAS TO BE IMPROVED
CLEM QB Soph 6-1 | 233 Tajh Boyd
Is the Physical QB that fits Swinney's Scheme well
& THE TIGERS #1 ACC RATED WR CORPS
w/Now Healthy RB Ellington back in the Fold
w/TIGERS' HC SWINNEY ON A VERY HOT SEAT
We have 1 CLEMSON's Home Game Circled:
Sept 17 | WEEK 3
NAT'L CHAMP AUBURN at CLEMSON
Conversely, a Clemson Let-Down Possibility is HUGE
Following Week:
Sept 24 | WEEK 4
FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON
For what it's worth
Maryland
4 TRUE ROAD GMS
No Road Trip till Oct 8 (at GT)
MD: Rebounding from the Friedgen Era
w/NEW HC Edsall
Decent pieces, Bowl Winning 9-4 (& 9-4 ATS) Yr
MD SKIPS VA TECH
Yet must travel to Tallahassee
WITH 3x GMS AWAY FROM COL-PARK TO CLOSE YR
Nov. 12: N DAME (Fed Ex Field)
Nov. 19: at Wake Forest
Nov. 26: at North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Nice Conference Set-Up for Deac's
So many winnable Gms
WF Team off 3-9
YET RETURNS 17 STARTERS
(INCLUDING QB & Good Placekicker)
WF SINCE 2006 BREAKTHROUGH YEAR:
7 Conference Wins (2006)
5 Conference Wins (2007)
4 Conference Wins (2008)
3 Conference Wins (2009)
1 Conference Wins (2010)
HC Grobe has reallocated places: List to Seat (Hot)
Miami-Florida
Where to begin…
Schedule-wise (as if this is remotely concerning to Canes)
MIAMI travels to BOTH Blacksburg & Tallahassee in 2011
BIG-TEN SCHEDULES
SEVERAL UNCOMPLICATED SCHEDULES
Wisconsin
Back-Loaded
Kills me to presume Wisky's Schedule as 'Easy'
w/Wk 2, Oregon State in Madison
Yet, Wis 1st 6 w/o true Road Game
It then gets a little dicey
at Michigan State
at Ohio State
WISCONSIN gets NEBRASKA in Madison at ideal time
Week after FCS Opponent
Week Before Bye
2ND EASIEST BIG-TEN SCHEDULE?
Illinois
4 ROAD GAMES in 2011
ZERO Roadies till 10/08/2011
ILL Road Gms (2011 Records | Road Gms)
Indiana (5-7)
Penn State (7-6)
Purdue (4-8)
Minnesota (3-9)
Illini's Ron Zook (51-59 after 6 Seasons)
Been on Hot Seat so long,
May work to his advantage when Ill Wins
ILL: Decent 7-6 Season in 2010
ILL: 4-4 Big Ten
With FRESHMAN Core Group of Skill Guys
ILL really could have been far better,
ILL: 3 close losses in Last 4 Regular Season Gms
ILL Reversed Negative 2009 Conf Yardage discrepancy
& #1 most Uncomplicated, Big Ten Schedule?
Michigan
Like Illinois, Big Blue has just
4 ROAD GAMES (Definite Theme Here)
w/o leaving Ann Arbor till October 8
Michigan new HC Brady Hoke
Couldn't have summoned a better 2011 draw
If he drew it is simply ideal:
BOTH NEB & OHIO ST in Big House
WOLVES SKIP WISCONSIN
Rich-Rod must be pissed
MOST DIFFICULT BIG TEN SCHEDULE?
Northwestern
NW: difficult line up
NW: 4 of First 5 (& 6 of 8) FBS Games on Road
NOT ALL BAD for Cats
NW: Brings back 9 on Offense, including QB
NW: Skips OHIO STATE + WISCONSIN
______
For all these SEC & BIG TEN Schedules w/ 67% Home Games
(8 HOME | 4 ROAD)
Programs & Teams beyond 'Big 6+4'
(SEC|BIG-10|BIG-XII|ACC|PAC-12|BIG EAST & INDY's)
Are frequent (at times, reluctant) 'Sponsors'
Of these windfall, incentive-loaded, mismatch games
Thus: College Football's 'Non-Automatic-Bid"
FBS "MID-MAJOR CONF TMS
Mountain West Conference (MWC)
Conference-USA (C-USA)
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Sun Belt Conference (SUN-BELT)
Have nearly as many converse Home-Road Schedules,
w/DOZENS of 6 to 7 ROAD & 5 Home Game Schedules
WAC Conference will dip into FCS Programs
To stay afloat next Season
After Dominoes began to fall
& Boise State bounced to MWC
BYU raided 5 of 8 desperate WAC cupboards
5 WAC of 8 Conf Programs
Heading to Provo this season
After BYU scrambled to fill 2011 schedule
w/FBS Opponents
BYU: Left Conference Play altogether to play as Indy
NO 'EGRESS' SCHEDULE
Louisiana Tech
SEVEN 2011 ROAD GAMES
w/OOC Roadies at ALL 3 MISS FBS TEAMS
at Southern Mississippi
at Mississippi St (Wk after HOU, Wk before HI)
at Mississippi
In addition,
LT: vs. HOUSTON, OOC
LT: Conference Favorite NEVADA on Road
LT: Consensus #2 CONF Pick, FRESNO on Road
Lastly, LT's daunting 3 Game, 3 Week Road Swing
Hard to miss
Nov. 05: LT at Fresno State
Nov. 12: LT at Mississippi
Nov. 19: LT at Nevada
Another way to put it,
LT: 7 of first 10 LT FBS Gms on Road
w/the 3 HOME GAMES
vs. Houston
vs. Hawaii &
vs. San Jose State?
ANY WAY WE SLICE IT,
LA TECH's 2011 Schedule is outrageously difficult
GRUELING OPENING SEQUENCE
Nevada
How about this 4-Pack of Roadies
To begin Nevada's Post-Kaepernick Era?
at Oregon
at San Jose State
at Texas Tech
at Boise State
Looks a lot like ol' 'Body-Bag' $CHEDULE$ *
NEVADA'S HOME OPENER?
OCTOBER 8 (vs. 'Rival', Nevada-Las Vegas)
Beyond demanding.
NEV: Just FIVE O-Starters Returning
NEV: 'NEW' QB Sr 6-4 | 222 Lantrip
Clearly not in Kaepernick's class
HOWEVER,
NEV: 21 of 22 Starters are UPPERCLASSMEN
NEV HC Chris Alt (65% Wins)
Eternally under-appreciated 'Lifer' HC (28TH Yr at NEV)
Alt has truly built sustained depth in Reno
In The Boise State Bronco-less WAC,
'Pack will still be closely-controlled organization
LASTLY, NEV schedule, as we'd suspect
Drops off table after Pack's Oct 1 Trip to Boise
NEVADA's 2 REMAINING ROADIES?
vs. 2010 combined 3-13 Conference (3-18) Teams,
at New Mexico State
at Utah State
NEV GAINS: Projected WAC Finishers
#2. Fresno State
#3. Hawaii
#4. Louisiana Tech
In Reno, also
** (70's & 80's: Programs in places like Manhattan, KS, Stockton, CA, Corvallis, OR, Lawrence, KS, San Jose, CA, Evanston, IL, Long Beach, CA, Ames, IA, et al, were compelled to fill OOC Schedules w/at OHST, MICH, UGA TEX, FLA ST, SMU, OU, NEB, ARK, PENN ST, LSU, PITT, BAMA, TENN, ect. Body-Bag Era was a strange time; Pre-85 Scholie Limitations/Post Title-IX, enduring, dilapidated D-1 Programs – especially those in "BIG-6" Conferences, turned to the compulsory Big-Time CFB Programs for the quid-pro-quo; The K-St/Ore St's pull in 3-4 desperately needed shared payday/gate(s) (funneled thru to shoestring budget), & The Ohio St/Texas' Gain a near-guaranteed Homecoming Victory & inflate their Win Total(s), positioned for Bowl Bid(s). Clearly, it was a no-win proposition for the have-nots. Programs such as Ore St – w/29 Consecutive Years of losing Seasons here in Corvallis can speak into this; as 3-4 Body baggers & the odds of a winning year are less-than-zero, w/each losing season, talent & coaching cohesiveness are low & lower. Many Programs in Mid-Major Conferences simply couldn't survive, and subsequently folded (LBSU, Pacific). Digression over.
TOUGHEST START?
Florida Atlantic
Hard to believe HC Schnellenberger's been in Boca for 13 Years
One might guess, w/established HC often having input
How/why can FAU rationalize this schedule?
Is HC Schnellenburger slipping? *
FAU: STARTS 2011 w/FIVE ROAD GAMES
at Florida
at Michigan State
at Auburn
Till beginning Sun Belt Play
at La-Lafayette
at North Texas
OCT 15 Before Owls open their new Crib
(FAU had to ensure completion of New Digs)*
FLA-ATL MUST START NEW QB (0-2 Passing in 2010)
FLA-ATL MUST START ALL NEW RECEIVERS
(Both entirely untested Underclassmen)
However,
Owls return ALL UP CLASS O-LINEMEN
Owls return BOTH Backs in FAU 2-Back Offense
Including ALL-CONF RB 5-11 | 223 Morris
FAU's QB has been groomed as HC Schnellenberger's Guy
FAU QB Jr 6-7 | 215 David Kool
FAU apparently has nice QB Backup
Another Big Guy, not nearly as Athletic Yet better arm
FAU QB Jr 6-6 | 227 is pushing Kool very hard
CAPPING Note worth mentioning
Schnellenberger's 6-0 Career Bowl Numbers aside,
His FLA-ATL Teams have been dreadful ATS.
FAU LAST 2 YEARS: 7-17 ATS
FAU OOC LAST 5 YEARS: 12-23 ATS
FAU HOME FAV LAST 2 YEARS: 0-6 ATS
FAU HOME FAV LAST 5 YEARS: 3-12 ATS
Consistent Fade Money here…FWIW
Western Kentucky
Hilltopers, somehow in just 4TH Yr of FBS Play
Managed 2011 schedule w/0 True Rd Gms til 10/6
CIRCLED GAME (9 DAYS AWAY)
SEPT 1: W KENTUCKY vs. KENTUCKY
Opening Night in Nashville
(2 Ky Teams Playing each other Out-of-State)
Louisiana-Monroe
A Phil Steele SURPRISE 2011 TEAM"
FIRST 3 FBS GMS FOR WARHAWKS:
at Florida State
at TCU
at Alabama
Will we EVER find a steeper climb for ANY TEAM?
L-Monroe: Solid Core is all back from 5-7 Team
INCLUDING QB (Browning, All-Conf as FRESHMAN)
Entire OL Returns
L-MON: SIX-SR's for #2 Sun Belt 2010 Defense
Central Michigan
7 of first 9 FBS Gms on Road
San Jose State
ROAD GMS
at UCLA
at Stanford
at Brigham Young
TOUGH ROAD'S
Idaho
OOC Road Games
at Texas A&M
at Virginia
at Brigham Young
ROUGH
Marshall
='HARSH-ALL'?
HERD HAS SEVEN ROAD GMS
(4 of first 6 on Road)
MSHL: at Rival WVU out of the shoot
MSHL: HOME GAME vs. VA TECH
Followed by trip to LOUISVILLE
MSHL OOC GMS:
at WVU, at LOU'VL, vs. OHIO vs. VA TECH
Herd also travel
To HOU & TULSA in Conf Play
MARSHALL 2011:
New QB
Patchwork OL
7 Underclassmen on Depth Charts?
Might be fortunate to see a repeat of 5-7 (2010)
-----
CFB FUTURES PLAYS
½ UNIT | BCS NAT'L CHAMPS
OREGON 14 to 1 (Bodog)
½ UNIT | PAC-12 CHAMPS
OREGON +240 (Sportsbook.com)
½ UNIT | ACC CHAMPS
VA TECH +180 (Sportbet)
FUTURES TOTAL WINS
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
VA TECH | OVER 10 (-130 | Bkmkr)
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
WISCONSIN | OVER 9 (-175 | BetUS)
¼ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
WISCONSIN | OVER 9½ (EVEN | Bkmkr)
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
SO CAL | OVER 7½ (-130 | BetUS)
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
TEXAS TECH | UNDER 7 (-105 | BetUS)
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
CLEMSON | OVER 7 (-120 | BetUS)
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
OREGON ST | OVER 6½ (EVEN | Bkmkr)
½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
WAZZU | UNDER 4½ (+125 | BetUS)
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
PAC-12-YAK: 2011 SUN DEVIL ‘HOUSE OF CARDS’
HURRICANE DENNIS' LEGACY?
Arizona State Sun Devils
Poised to make a serious run at PAC-12 South
To earn birth in Inaugural PAC-12 Title Game
Especially in a 2011 'Asterisk' Season *
(*SC ineligible for Postseason play)
2011 ARIZONA STATE SCHEDULE:
DEVILS: 7 EXCEEDINGLY WINNABLE HM GMS
(SC at Home)
DEVILS: 4 of 5 TRICKY RD GMS
(at Ill, at UU, at Ore, at UCLA, at Wzu)
DEVILS: 5 of 9 Conference Home Games
DEVILS: 4 of 1ST 5 Games at Home
DEVILS: Skip Top-10 Stanford
PAC-12 Title Gm hosted by Top Regular Season Tm
(Thus, ASU likely to make TWO Eugene Trips in 2010)
ASU finished 6-6 in 2010
Despite many close losses
The Devils were dynamite ATS (10-2)
ERICKSON'S ASU DEVILS:
SIMULTANEOUSLY APT TO IMPROVE UPON 6-WIN SEASON of '10
AS THEY ARE TO IMPLODE & FALL SHORT OF EXPECTATION
WHY IS SPARKY A VOLATILE HOUSE OF CARDS?
PAC-12 Commish, Larry Scott's recent announcement
Regarding Rigorous 2011 Penalty Enforcement,
Appears largely directed toward Erickson's Devils:
1. PAC-12's increase scope of "'Taunting" Penalties
2. PAC-12 "0-Tolerance" Personal-Foul Penalty Doctrine
Rigid Penalty Enforcement
Spells almost certain distress & apprehension for Arizona State
HC Dennis Erickson & his teams carry
Inescapable, inevitable PENALTY Ball-n-Chain
As an avid follower of Ore St Football for Decades,
This distinction was agonizingly palpable
During Erickson's '99-'02 Years in Corvallis.
While immersed w/in
'Hurricane-Dennis-Penalty-Juxtaposition'
Entirely expected to view the Erickson question as:
"Unfair predisposition and/or injustice"
This widespread, us-against-world, 'victimization' sentiment
Commonly & collectively grabs Coaches, Players & Fans
Of an embattled Program/Staff almost without fail -
& can be counterproductive to reversing underlying issues.
Fans/Coaches in such cases,
Farthest thing from objective;
Naturally develop a, 'Trees despite the Forest' viewpoint.
Folks in Tempe undoubtedly
Feel such penalty enforcement is extreme.
As a card-carrying member of 'Beaver Nation',
Vivid memories of copious, inordinate streams of yellow laundry
That followed Erickson's Black Bandit Football team
Seemed altogether unwarranted & unfair.
'Erickson's Reputation PRECEDED this
(then current) Beaver Team',
So I thought.
Mid-season Last Year, & 10 Years
Following Ore St's 00-01 Fiesta Bowl Winning, 11-1 Season,
Fox NW (Now 'Root') replayed memorable Games
From the 2000 Beaver Football Season.
Just before Ore St's Oct 2010 trip North to play Wash,
'Root' Replayed Beavers' 2000 only loss,
(Coincidentally, September 2000
Beaver Lost 33-30 at Washington).
This quick look in the rear-view mirror
Revealed 'our Beavers' as a team that –
at least Defensively -
Played reckless; w/unquestionably 'underhanded' approach.
Without sounding entirely self-righteous,
This flashback was revealing, & a bit upsetting.
One Quarter of 2000 Beavers' footage,
Erickson 'truths' instantaneously superseded memory.
Beavers were flagged for almost 200 Yards,
ORST DL Erick Manning, ORST FS Terrance Carroll
BOTH ejected for deplorable acts of unsportsmanlike conduct,
& Ore St was flagged for 5 Total Personal Foul Penalties
Most disturbing? Beaver Fans – me included,
Grew accustomed to borderline-devious, harmful & unethical play.
w/orange-tinted glasses on,
We TRULY considered 90% of Erickson-Beavers penalties unfair,
& still vividly recall these 2000 UW ejections as 'unwarranted'.
In hindsight, both were more than justified –
If not entirely necessary.
For better or worse,
Erickson allows, encourages & inspires Defenders to 'Fly-Around'
Erickson openly recruits,
'Guys that play our brand of Banshee Football'
Whatever.
The upside must still outweigh the down,
Though Ariz St is now 'just' 25-24 under Erickson's direction.
Present Day, Arizona State's Erickson Teams
Still consistently land in or around
'BOTTOM-5' MOST-PENALIZED Tms in CFB:
Penalty Yards/Gm:
ASU 2007: 57 PEN YD/GM (#78 of 120 FBS Tms)
ASU 2008: 67 PEN YD/GM (#109 of 120 FBS Tms)
ASU 2009: 86 PEN YD/GM (#120 of 120 FBS Tms)
ASU 2010: 70 PEN YD/GM (#113 of 120 FBS Tms)
Even Erickson's recent, brief 1-Yr return season at Idaho
Vandals' brief, disproportionate 1-Yr spike in Penalties
IDAHO 2006: 73 PEN YD/GM (#117 of 120 FBS Tms)
IDAHO 2005: #47 just Yr before Erickson's Tenure
IDAHO 2007: #68 just Yr after Erickson moved on
ARIZONA STATE 2011 PENALTIES:
Quintessential Sun Devil 'House-of-Cards'
w/these new emphases'....
ARIZONA ST JR LB VONTAZE BURFICT
Is a particularly quick-tempered, POWDER KEG
In all my years of watching games from sidelines,
Not sure we will could ever find a player so talented,
Yet (choosing my words carefully), 'self-absorbed'.
Vontaze Burfict's talent? BOUNDLESS
Yet, the Kid is far past 'confident'
Burfict is so wrapped up in his own game & persona'….
Said many times - & sincerely hope to be wrong here -
When/if Vontaze Burfict played for Arizona State....
Instead of Vontaze Burfict?
He'd be, "The Hottest Thing since Texas Air".
All the talk of ASU reversing 2010 Close Game Record (1-4),
May be secondary
To how they adjust to this new Penalty Enforcement Protocol
CIRCLED GAME:
Friday, September 9, 2011
Missouri Tigers
Arizona State Sun Devils
National TV?
Friday Night in Desert?
Devils' might be a hot pick here
So clearly, we look at the contrarian angle(s)
Mizzou could be Unknown quantity
After Opening w/Miami-Ohio
Yet should be preparing for ASU exclusively
Mizzou FCS Opponent the following week
YET, Missouri w/'New Athletic QB'
Runs a lot of The 'CAT' (QB Franklin)
Lots of talk about
WHAT MIZZOU DOES NOT HAVE (QB Gabbert)
Instead of the Tools in the SHED;
Especially OFFENSIVELY
MIZZ: Rock-Solid, Experienced O-LINE
FOUR returning OL SR's
BOTH O-Guards/BOTH O-Tackles
w/4TH Year rJr Center (Ruth) Played 10 Gms in 2010
MIZZ: ALL UPPER-CLASS Receiving Corps Back
TOP 8 Pass-Catchers Return for Tigers
MIZZ: Highly Seasoned SR Running Back Moore
MIZZ: New QB-Look, Soph 6-2 | 225 Franklin
Tigers w/"Wildcat QB"
vs.
ASU & Devils 'New' Black Uni's?
BTW, New Unis? & they're, big surprise - BLACK?
Clearly not going for originality points
This could be a typical laundry-fest in Tempe,
Whether PAC-12 Officials are on the job or not
LINE (Golden Nugget)
Started at ARIZ ST -3 up to -5, May well hit -7
Before Sept 9, 2011
½ UNIT
MISSOURI TIGERS +5
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
Stay tuned.....
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
2011 PAC-12 SOUTH FOOTBALL: Inagural Season
INAUGURAL PAC-12 FOOTBALL
2011 "SOUTH" PREVIEW
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
RETURNING | STARTER ANALYSIS
UTAH UTES | 2-DEEP / Sr's STATS
#6 Utah | 12 Ttl Sr's | 44-Plyr Depth (½ UU 2-Deep are Jr's)
2011 "SOUTH" PREVIEW
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
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| Arizona Wildcats |
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
AZ CATS: 2-DEEP / SENIOR STATS
#4* (PAC-12 RANK*) AZ | 14 Ttl Seniors on 44-Deep Roster
#12 AZ | Ttl Starters Returning in 2011 (10)
ARIZONA WILDCATS | LETTERMAN STATS
#11 AZ | Ttl Letterman Returning (44)
#7 AZ | Ttl Letterman Lost 2010 (21)
#11 AZ | Ttl Letterman NET RETURNING (+23)
#12 AZ | Ttl Letterman Starters Ret (51% | #105 Nat'l)
ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2011 "EXPERIENCE" RATING
(Factoring Class | Year % / Number of Starts)
#6 Arizona Wildcats | 56% Experience Rating
ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2011 OFFENSE
#12 ARIZ | O-STARTERS RETURNING (5)
YET, TOP 2010 PAC-10 Conf Passing Ydg QB Returns for AZ
AZ Sr QB Nic Foles (290 Pass YPG)
#2 ARIZONA | O-Ydge Returning (85%)
#12 ARIZONA | O-Line Starts Returning (ONE Start)
ARIZONA OFFENSE 2011 UNIT RANKS
#4 ARIZONA QUARTERBACKS(s)
TWO Experienced Sr QB's (Fortunate QB Insurance)
ARIZ Number 2 Quarterback,
ARIZ QB 6-3 | 199 Sr Scott
Started 5 Gms for Cats during his career in Tucson
#7 ARIZONA RUNNING BACKS | RUSHERS
Pretty low at #7, Underrated Back
ARIZ RB 5-8 | 187 Antolin (ALL-CONF RB, 13 TTL Starts)
#1 ARIZONA RECEIVING CORPS (WR | TE)
Entirely Deserved #1 Rating
ARIZ WR 6-4 | 211 Sr Juron Criner
(2010: 1st Tm All-Conf | 82 Rec | 1233 Yds | 11 TD)
AZ WR 6-4 | 222 Jr Dan Buckner (Texas Transfer)
#12 ARIZONA OFFENSIVE LINE
ARIZ: 0 RETURNING O-LINE STARTERS
ARIZ 1 Combined OL START (DEAD-LAST NCAA)
ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2011 DEFENSE
#11 ARIZ Defense Starters Returning (5)
#8 ARIZ Defense Tackles Returning (60%)
ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2011 'D' UNIT RANKS
#10 ARIZONA DEFENSIVE LINE
(3 of 4 New Starters, 2 JUCO)
Mix of 3 Inexperienced New Starters
Returning AZ DT 6-2 | 281 Soph Washington
Was Named to PAC-12 Frosh All-Conference
#8 ARIZONA LINEBACKERS
(2 of 3 are SR Returning Starters)
AZ WLB 6-2 | 224 rFr Benson
Penciled Starter, NOW OUT, (Inelig)
This will leave Cats' Experienced but THIN
7-Gm Starter, Fischer Inj (ACL) Spring, listed/prob Rd-Shirt
#3 ARIZONA SECONDARY
(½ of this Unit ARE RETURNING ALL-CONF SR's)
Tenacious Unit
Reputation as tireless 'wedge-compression' Unit Specialists
2 ALL-CONF SR SECONDARY MEN,
AZ 5-11 Sr Golden
AZ 5-11 Sr Wade - Relentless tandem
ARIZ New-found Soph LENGTH Secondary Starters
ARIZ's UCLA-Transfer, SS 6-2 | 183 Soph Richardson
ARIZ LCB 6-3 | 204 Soph Flowers
Allow Cats' All-Leaguers to Jam-up PAC-12 Receivers at will
(AZ has lacked size vs. Bigger Receiver Corps until now)
ARIZONA SPECIAL TEAMS 2011
#8 ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2011 Special Tms Rating
1 of just 4 PAC-12 Teams to Return Experienced PK
(Sr Zendejas | 31-41 Career at Az)
Az must break in new Punter
2010 RECAP
Arizona Wildcats 7-6 (4-5 Conf | 3-8-1 ATS)
ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2010 SCORING
#6 ARIZONA 28.2 PPG (#53 Nat'l)
#6 ARIZONA 25.6 PPG Conference
#5 ARIZONA OPPONENT 22.7 PPG
#5 ARIZONA CONF GM OPP 24.9 PPG
#4 ARIZONA PPG MARGIN +5.5 PPG
#6 ARIZONA CONF GM MGN +0.7 PPG
ARIZONA WILDCATS 2010 | OFFENSE
(All *12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#3 ARIZONA TTL YPG: 440 Yds/Gm (#24 Nat'l)
#4 ARIZONA TTL PPG: 28.2 Pts/Gm (#53 Nat'l)
ARIZONA RUSHING OFFENSE 2010
#10 AZ Rushing: 132 YPG (#88 Nat'l)
#8 AZ Fumbles Surrendered: 10 | 0.77/Gm (#63 Nat'l)
ARIZONA PASSING OFFENSE 2010
#1 AZ Pass Offense: 308 Yds/Gm (#9 Nat'l)
#6 AZ Interceptions Thrown: 12 | 0.92/Gm (#50 Nat'l)
#9 AZ Tackles For Loss Alwd: 79 | 6.1/Gm (#74 Nat'l)
#7 AZ Total Sacks Alwd: 32 | 2.46/Gm (#90 Nat'l)
ARIZONA WILDCATS 2010 RANK | DEFENSE
(All 12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#4 AZ TTL DEFENSE | YDS ALWD: 340 (#94 Nat'l)
#5 AZ SCORING DEFENSE | PPG ALWD: 22.7 (#41 Nat'l)
ARIZONA RUSH DEFENSE 2011
#5 AZ Rush Yds Alwd: 132 Yds/Gm (#33 Nat'l)
#3 AZ Fumbles Forced/Recov'd: 9 | 0.692/Gm (#65 Nat'l)
#4 AZ Tackles-For-Loss: 6.5/Gm (#31 Nat'l)
ARIZONA PASS DEFENSE
#4 AZ Pass Yds Alwd: 209 Yds/Gm (#45 Nat'l)
#11 AZ Int Gained: 9 | 0.58/Gm (#94 Nat'l)
#10 AZ Sacks Obtained 32 | 2.46/Gm (#21 Nat'l)
#4 AZ Pass-Efficiency 'Defense' (#38 Nat'l)
ARIZONA 2010 MISCELLANEOUS KEY STATS
#10 AZ 2010 SPECIAL TMS RATING (#58 Nat'l)
#10 AZ Turnover Margin: <-0.31> (#75 Nat'l)
#9 AZ Penalties: 7.1/Gm (#98 Nat'l)
#4 AZ Penalty Yds: 53y/Gm (#65 Nat'l)
ARIZONA 2010 ATS TRENDS
AZ CATS | 2010
Brief Quick Start (Pair of Gms), weak finish
ARIZONA 2010 STARTED 2-0 ATS
ARIZONA 2010 FINISHED 1-6-2 ATS
ARIZONA 2010 FINISHED 0-3 ATS
ARIZONA QUALITY 2010 WINS | COVER(S):
WEEK 1: Arizona -14½ at Toledo | Cats' 41, Rockets 2
WEEK 3: #9 Iowa at Arizona -2½: Cats' 34, Hawks 27
AZ's notable Pair of quality FBS Sept Wins (S/U & ATS)
Put Cats' on Nat'l Radar
First, AZ's Cross-County trip to Toledo
Where AZ as +2 TD favorites blitzed Rockets, 41-2
Then AZ Late Night, thrilling signature Win
AZ 34-27 Over Highly Regarded #9 IOWA
Vaulted AZ into Nat'l prominence at 3-0
AZ rose to Nat'l #9 Rank
Before Losing Week #5 to Ore St at Home 27-29
AZ SUBSTANDARD GMS 2010 L's, FAILED COVER(S):
Arizona completed 0-5 late-season slide in Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State 36, Arizona (+4) 10
AZ demolished in BTB Bowl
AZ combined 2009 & 2010 Bowl Score: 10-69
Cats' Finished Season 0-5 (1-6-2 ATS Finish)
AZ plunged despite a fortunate lack of Starter Injuries
(6 TTL Starters Lost , #4 FBS-Teams)
Cats' issue was primarily Turnover Margin
AZ Positive T-Overs just 1-Gm since opener at Tole (@Wzu)
CATS' Held Positive Yd Edge in FOUR of their Losses
Out-gained Okla St by +60 Yds in 26-Pt Bowl Loss
(Az -4 Turnover disadvantage)
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| Arizona State Sun Devils |
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
ASU DEVILS: 2-DEEP / SENIOR STATS
#1 ARIZ ST | 20 TTL SR's | 44-Deep Roster
#3 ARIZ ST | Ttl Starters Returning in 2011 (12)
ARIZONA STATE | LETTERMAN STATS
#3 ARIZ ST | Ttl Letterman Returning (53)
#1 ARIZ ST | Ttl Letterman Lost 2010 (17)
#2 ARIZ ST | Ttl Letterman NET RETURNING (+36)
#3 ARIZ ST | Ttl Letterman Starters Ret (70% | #25 Nat'l)
ARIZ ST DEVILS | 2011 "EXPERIENCE" RATING:
(Factoring Class | Year % / Number of Starts)
#1 ARIZ ST | 77% Experience Rating
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS | 2011 OFFENSE
#4 ARIZ ST | O-Starters Ret (8) New QB*
(Osweiler: 1 Start 2010)
(Osweiler: 1 Start 2010)
#9 ARIZ ST | O-Ydge Ret (61%)
#4 ARIZ ST | O-Line Starts Ret (84 Starts)
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS | 2011 O-UNIT RANKS
#5 ARIZONA STATE QUARTERBACKS
Jr 6-8 | 243 Osweiler ('New')
Oswoeiler is clearly an idyllic Erickson Guy,
Taylor-Made for Erickson's Az St's Spread-Vertical fusion Offense
Converted Stretch-4 Hoopster
Entering 3rd Season in Tempe
Entering 3rd Season in Tempe
Osweiler's tough-luck Devil Career is likely to blossom
w/1 of Nation's Top OL's, which MUST improve
Devils OL allowed hard-to-fathom 31 Sacks in 2010
& ASU unaccustomed lack of QB Depth,
Especially considering Osweiler's Injury-tendencies,
Ariz St degree of 2010 Success is highly probable
Yet a quintessential House-of-Cards at the same time
#8 ARIZONA STATE RUNNING BACKS | RUSHERS
2 Top Rushers Returning
ASU Jr 5-11 | 227 C Marshall (813 Yd Ret | 5.2 YPC | 9 TD)
ASU Soph | 5-10 | 199 D Lewis (522 Yd Ret | 6 YPC | 4 TD)
#6 and #9 PAC-12 2010 Rushers Back for Devils
Places Devils #8 RB Rating a bit low
Especially since ASU finished w/decent (#8 PAC-12) 136 YPG Avg, 2010
LEWIS:
Back-up, 1 of 9 Returning 'Big-Play' Threat Guys in PAC-12
#8 of 9: Lewis 27 of 92 Carries broke for 20+Y, 16 of those were 30+Y
[53 of 100 Top 'Big-Play' Individuals from 2010 CFB Return this Season]
#9 ARIZONA STATE RECIEVING CORPS
NINTH?
Astonishing low rating for this Unit
ASU STARTS SR'S AT ALL 4 RECEIVER POSITIONS (3 WR | TE)
In Fact, Devils' 2 back-up Receivers are experienced Upperclassmen
ASU Receiver Corps has almost everything;
Size, Depth, Experience & Toughness
ONLY possible detraction:
ASU lack of TE Quality / Size / Production
Insignificant TE-Involvement
In itself particularly unbefitting any Erickson Team
ASU Sr 6-1 | 245 Kohl (JUCO)
ASU Starting TE pulled in ONE Pass in First 4 Gms of 2010 &
Compiled 2-TTL CATCHES All Season
No reason to believe this will change in 2011
3 Starting Devil Receivers are a venerable Trio of SR's
Even w/#1 2010 Receiver (Taylor) Graduated
The remaining #2 thru #7 Corps is intact
The Starting Trio pulled w/13 combined TD's
ASU's possession guy; 3rd-Dwn, gritty Transfer from Ore
ASU Slot/Flanker, Sr 5-10 | 177 A Pflugrad
ASU bookend duo WR's are BOTH long
& fit quite neatly w/Erickson's w/field-stretching, vertical
ASU 'Z' Split End, Sr 6-4 | M Willie (Ret JUCO)
ASU 'X' Split-End, Sr 6-4 | G Robinson
To Top this off, ASU Receiver Crops is awfully deep
Devils Specialist Receivers Include
Frequent Starter, Jr 5-10 | 182 Miles (1 TD for every 6 Catches) &
Speedy WR Sr 6-1 | 185 TJ Simpson (ASU's K/P Returner)
SIMPSON:
#6 of 9 Ret PAC-12 Big-Play, Breakaway Threat Players
(Second ASU Player to Make my List')
Simpson's ASTOUNDING STAT:
SIMPSON 20+ Yd ALL BUT 6 of his 29 Catches, 2010 (80%)
Simpson Gained 40+ Yds in 11 of those 29 Catches (38%)
#3 ARIZONA STATE OFFENSEIVE LINE
DEVS' CONTRARY 2010 OL NUMBERS?
ASU enormous, quickly constructed, patchwork OL
Tailored to recalculate for a tweaked Offense
(Chiefly, the 'Michigan-style Spread' wrinkles)
Devs OL allowed alarmingly high 33 Sacks (2.53/Gm)
YET, FACILITATED VASTLY IMPROVED ASU OFFENSE
QB Threat & Sun Devils raised their Offense +91 YPG
ASU TTL OFFENSE: #90 of 120 Tms, 2009 (335 YPG)
ASU TTL OFFENSE: #29 in 2010 (426 YPG)
Sack numbers are a little misleading
As 2010 Devils' were adjustoing to new O-Scheme
w/Statuesque QB Threat (& Osweiler) are/were altogether 'stationary' Target(s)
ASU Returning RB Duo, Marshall & Lewis
Combined for Respectable 1165 RY
Moreover, ASU's 2010 Starting OL Returns 100% INTACT
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS | 2011 DEFENSE
#11 ARIZ ST | D-Starters Returning (5)
#9 ARIZ ST | D-Tackles Ret (58%)
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS | 2011 D-UNIT RANKS
#3 ARIZONA STATE DEFENSIVE LINE
Unit is Deep & Strong
Sitting at #3 in PAC-12 is understandable
Yet Must be largely due to Devils Unusual low Sack numbers
Hard to believe this TEAM got to QB just 23 Times
#1 ARIZONA STATE LINEBACKERS
Number 1 IS UNDERSTATEMENT
BURFICT | PARKER | MAGEE:
4 ALL-CONF SEASONS PRODUCED
ALL 3 Returning Devils Starters are sensational
#6 ARIZONA STATE SECONDARY
Experienced Unit - still 'just' 8th Pass-Efficiency 'D' 2010
ARIZ ST SUN DEVILS | 2011 SPECIAL TEAMS
#3 ARIZ ST 2011 Special Teams Rating (#11 Nat'l)
Sun Devil breaking in Redshirt Freshman Kicker,
UNTESTED Walk-On RFr 6-1 | 194 Garoutte
Return Starting P Jr Hebner,
(Almost exactly AVG 40.1 YPP in 2010)
(Almost exactly AVG 40.1 YPP in 2010)
2010 RECAP
Arizona State Sun Devils 6-6 (4-5 Conf | 7-1-1 ATS)
ARIZ ST DEVS: 2010 SCORING
#4 ARIZONA STATE: 32.3 PPG (#27 Nat'l)
#5 ARIZONA STATE: 30.3 Conference PPG
#6 ARIZONA STATE OPPONENT: 25.0 PPG
#7 ARIZONA STATE CONF OPP PPG: 28.0 PPG
#4 ARIZONA STATE PPG MARGIN: +7.3 PPG
#5 ARIZONA STATE CONF GM MARGIN: +2.4 PPG
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS | 2010 OFFENSE
(All *12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#5 ARIZONA STATE TTL YPG: 426 Yds/Gm (#29 Nat'l)
#5 ARIZONA STATE CONF YPG: 414 Yds/Gm
ARIZ ST DEVILS | 2010 RUSH OFFENSE
#8 ARIZ ST | Rushing: 139 Yds/Gm, (#78 Nat'l)
#10 ARIZ ST | Conf Rushing: 134 YPG
#3 ARIZ ST | Fumbles Surrendered: 6 (#9 Nat'l)
ARIZ ST DEVILS | 2010 PASS OFFENSE
#2 ARIZ ST | Passing: 286 YPG (#15 Nat'l)
#2 ARIZ ST | Conf Passing: 280 YPG
#12 ARIZ ST | Int Thrown: 17 (1.42 Gm | #103 Nat'l)
#7 ARIZ ST | Tackles For Loss Alwd: 5.7/Gm (#65 Nat'l)
ARIZ ST DEVILS | 2010 DEFENSE RANKS
(All 12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#6 ARIZ ST TTL 'D' | YPG ALWD: 366 (#67 Nat'l)
#10 ARIZ ST SCORING 'D' | YPG ALWD: 25,0 (#55 Nat'l)
ARIZ ST DEVILS | 2010 RUSH DEFENSE
#2 ARIZ ST | Rush Yds Alwd: 120 Yds/Gm (#17 Nat'l)
#12 ARIZ ST | Fumbles Forced/Recov'd: 5 | 0.417/Gm (#116 Nat'l)
#2 ARIZ ST | Tackles-For-Loss: 7.3/Gm (#11 Nat'l)
ARIZ ST DEVILS | 2010 PASS DEFENSE
#9 ARIZ ST | Pass Yds Alwd: 245 Yds/Gm (#100 Nat'l)
#4 ARIZ ST | Int Gained: 1.0/Gm (#55 Nat'l)
#11 ARIZ ST | Sacks Obtained 23 | 1.92/Gm (#72 Nat'l)
#8 ARIZ ST | Pass-Efficiency 'D' (#74 Nat'l)
ARIZONA STATE DEVILS | 2010 MISC KEY STATS
#3 ARIZ ST | 2010 SPECIAL TEAMS RATING (#11 Nat'l)
#11 ARIZ ST | T-Over Margin: <-0.5> (#88 Nat'l)
#12 ARIZ ST | Penalties: 8.0/Gm (#116 Nat'l)
#12 ARIZ ST | Penalties: 70 Yds/Gm (#114 Nat'l)
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS | 2010 ATS TRENDS
2010 ASU DEVS:
THE model of an ill-fated, "if-only / coulda-shoulda-been" Tm & Season
Dennis Erickson's Sun Devils
Turned in numerous, innovative & excruciating ways
To lose close gms
To lose close gms
ASU was 0-4 in 'Close Games
Until Season-Ending 30-29 OT Win over Arch-Rival AZ Cats'
ARIZONA STATE STARTED: 2-0-1 ATS
ARIZONA STATE FINISHED: 4-0 ATS
The Devils were DYNAMITE Against the Number,
Despite so many 2010 close losses
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RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
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| So Cal Trojans |
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
SO CAL TROJANS | 2-DEEP / SENIOR STATS
#11 So Cal | 10 Total Seniors on 44-Deep Roster
#6 So Cal | Total Starters Returning in 2011 (13)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2011 LETTERMAN STATS
#12 So Cal | Total Letterman Returning (39)
#8 So Cal | Total Letterman Lost 2010 (22)
#12 So Cal | Total Letterman NET RETURNING (+16)
#11 So Cal | Total Letterman Starters Ret (51.2% | #102 Nat'l)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2011 "EXPERIENCE" RATING:
(Factoring Class | Year % / No Starts)
#10 So Cal | 53% Experience Rating
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 2011 OFFENSE
#10 SC Offense Starters Returning (6) Incl QB
#8 SC Offensive Yardage Returning (62%)
#11 SC Offensive Line Starts Returning (22 Starts)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2011 O-UNIT RANKS
#2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA QUARTERBACKS
SC QB 6-2 | 220 Jr Matt Barkley
Barkley enters 3RD Yr at Troy
Started all but 1 Game of his 2+ Yrs in LA
Barkley still has multiple weapons to choose from
& made good strides thru Mid-Season
SC GM-7: Trojans blitzed Cal 48-14
SC at 5-2 (Two L's by 3 TOTAL PTS to UW & Stanford)
Matt Barkley was genuinely inching closer to unofficial entry
To 'The Heisman Discussion'
BARKLEY: 65% | 20 TD | 4 INT
Early 2ND Half of Gm #8, SC surged ahead of #1 ORE 32-29
& Barkley & So Cal's & Season reversed course
Oregon outscored SC 24-0 in Last 19 Game Min at SC
To remain unbeaten 8-0 and #1 Ranking
Matt Barkley's sparkling TD|INT Ratio dropped considerably;
Barkley missed 1ST Career Start vs ND w/Injury
& Barkley's accuracy fell off precipitously during SC's slide
BARKLEY Final 6 Gm TD|INT Ratio: 6 TD | 8 INT
In the end, Matt Barkley finished 2010 Season
w/very good numbers (CONF RANK)
#3 SC BARKLEY Pass Rating (141 | #18 Nat'l)
#3 SC BARKLEY Pass YPG (233 YPG | #27 Nat'l)
#3 SC BARKLEY Pass TD's (28 TD's | #17 Nat'l)
Awfully productive w/HIGHER than avg Pass Att/Gm
#2 SC BARKLEY
Barkley's HIGH INT RATE is mitigated (slightly)
By SC's collective late-season despondent play
(No Post-Season aspirations, ect)
BARKLEY 41 CAREER TD's, yet 26 Int
Nevertheless, Barkley has "ALL THE THROWS"
& IS CLEARLY HAS NFL-TALENT
& now in short time,
Barkley has over abundance of BIG-GM experience
SC's Offense may be thin by CFB Standards
YET, SC HAS TOP-SHELF TALENT on both sides of ball
Starting w/QB Matt Barkley
#2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RUSHING
SC RB Sr 5-11 | 234 M TYLER
15 Starts for #1 Rated Recruit, Tyler
Finally healthy & clear #1 RB at Tailback-U
Talent-wise, Tyler is every bit a #2 RB in Conf (behind ORE L James)
At SC's #2-Spot, SC RB Soph 6-0 | 197 D Baxter
#3 Nat'l RB Recruit
Next in line of great, highly touted SC Backs
Baxter gives SC idyllic insurance option
Furthermore,
SC brings in BIG-TIME BEAST of a REAL Fullback
SC FB 6-2 | 267 TRUE Fr S Vainuku
(In for Spring)
#2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RECEIVING
SC WR Soph 6-1 | 185 R WOODS
PAC-12 Freshman Offensive P-O-Y
Teamed w/a small question mark
SC WR rFr 6-6 | 214 K Prater
IF Prater has rehabbed his inj leg (Spring)
SC has the 1-2 Punch of all Passing CFB Teams clamor for:
SOLID, 3RD DWN, Possession Receiver (Woods)
Field Stretching elevated 6-6 Prater
& EXCELLENT Safety-Valves
TE (All-Conf) Sr Ellison
(& RB Tyler, 4TH Lead'g Rec '10)
#2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFENSIVE LINE
As almost every SC UNIT
On OL, Trojans ONLY limited in terms of Depth here
Setting SC's OL at #2 in PAC-12?
Any apprehension here starts w/LACK of OL Gm Starts (22)
SC HAS 4TH LOWEST RETURNING GM STARTS IN FBS
However, SC is Still Stocked w/ handpicked, elite recruits
ESPECIALLY on the O-LINE
& Depth is truly not an Issue in this UNIT
NEW STARTERS:
All Top-15 Nat'l Class/Rating
SC OL rFr 6-6 301 Di Paolo
SC OL Soph 6-6 304 Graf
SC OL 6-2 | 297 Soph Martinez
Flanked by SC's 2-Returning Starters,
SC CTR Jr 6-4 | 305 HOLMES
(All-Conf | Hon Mention)
SC OL Jr 6-7 | 302 KAUL
(STARTED ALL13 Gms 2010)
Moreover, SC's No. 2's Top-15 Classes:
SC OT Sr Coleman
SC OG Fr 277 308 Hobbi
SC OG rFr 6-3 | Kim
ALL TOP-15 OL
(In For Spring) ALSO - MAMMOTH EARTH-MOVERS
1. SC OL 6-6½ | 386 Freshman A WALKER
2. SC OL 6-3 | 344 Freshman M MARTIN
Parked in 2-Spots, will likely see much Gm Action
Now, w/1x Yr w/o Bowl, HC Kiffin professes need/plan
To utilize this Depth extensively
THUS, SC may have more growing pains than normal
NOTE: SC WILL (Presumably)
RETURN EVERY OL STARTER NEXT YR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2011 DEFENSE
#11 SC D-Starters Returning (5)
#9 SC D-Tackles Returning (58%)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2011 DEFENSIVE UNIT RANKS
#1 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DEFENSIVE LINE
Certainly well deserved #1 Rating for SC's D-Line
Trojans (arguably) a half-shade better than ASU's
SC Ends,
SC DE Jr 6-3 | 252 PERRY
SC DE Jr 6-5 | 260 NORTON
Perry/Norton Bookends
ARE CLEAR NFL-Caliber Speed Rushers
SC Nose tackle Sr 6-4 | 311 HARRIS
Has 27 Game Starts (5TH Leading Tackler on SC)
SC Starting DL, rFr 6-4 | 309 UNO
Backed up by 3-Yr Starter 6-5 | 296 Armstead
May start - depending on Injury Status (Spring - Out)
#2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LINEBACKERS
SUPERB Unit
SC LB Jr D Kennard
(13 Career Starts)
Game-Ready & now healthy,
SC LB Sr 6-2 | 251 Gailippo
The Stars of this UNIT, Gailippo & Kennard
Struggled w/poor-performances in '10
& were Injury-Shortened
SC's Kiffin tinkered a great deal w/LB's last third of 2010
Yet, THIS Unit is sensational
#2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SECONDARY
Besides ORE Cliff Harris,
2 of the FINEST SAFETY's in PAC-12 are in LA:
SC FS 6-3 | 210 TJ McDONALD
(1ST TM ALL-CONF 2010)
(Apologies to UCLA Sr Tony Dye, who had 7x Tkls than McDnd)
McDONALD:
Not only an impressive 89 Tkles
(#7 Ret PAC-12 Players)
Double-Threat w/6-3 height & 49" Vertical
Necessary to log 18 Pass-Breakup/Pass-Defenses
SC CB 5-8 | 159 Robey
UNDERSIZED
Yet Hard to Pick on
w/6-3 McDonald & 6-1 Starling
Covering sp much ground at Safety Spots
Robey was also ALL-CONF as 1ST YR 2010 Starter (Hon-Mention)
SS Jr 6-1 | 200 Starling
9 Solid Starts before Foot Inj
SC 2011 Secondary is thinner
(Entire Roster is now genuinely feeling FULL Impact/Effect
Bush-Probation & Scholie Limitations)
YET SC Starting FOUR CB's & Safety's
Have abundance of size, experience & talent
#9 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2011 SPECIAL TMS
So Cal is HONESTLY Starting from SCRATCH at PK & P
TRUE FRESHMAN will take the field for Trojans
SC Freshman P-KICK Heidari (#2 Nat'l Recruit)
SC Freshman PNTR Albarado (#7 Nat'l Recruit)
Highly regarded - yet True Freshman nonetheless
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2010 RECAP
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS 8-5 (5-4 Conf | 5-8 ATS)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2010 SCORING
#5 SO CAL 31.0 PPG (#37 Nat'l)
#4 SO CAL PPG Conf | 32.1 PPG
#7 SO CAL OPPONENT 26.7 PPG
#8 SO CAL CONF GM OPP: 28.4 PPG
#5 SO CAL PPG MARGIN: +4.3 PPG
#4 SO CAL CONF GM MGN: +3.7 PPG
SO CAL 2010 | OFFENSE | PAC-12 Rank*
(All *12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#4 SC TTL YDS / GM: 432 Yds/Gm (#26 Nat'l)
#5 SC TTL PTS / GM: 31.0 (#37 Nat'l)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | RUSH OFFENSE 2010
#3 SC Rush Yds/Gm: 190 Yds/Gm, (#25 Nat'l)
#6 SC Fumbles: 9 (#46 Nat'l)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | PASS OFFENSE 2010
#5 SC Pass Offense: 242 Yds/Gm (#42 Nat'l)
#7 SC Int Thrown: 13 | 1.0/Gm (#51 Nat'l)
#3 SC Tackles For Loss Alwd: 4.7/Gm (#22 Nat'l)
#4 SC Ttl Sacks Alwd: 18 | 1.4/Gm (#31 Nat'l)
SO CALIFORNIA 2010 | OFFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#4 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 3-DWN: 43% (#42 NAT'L)
#6 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RED-Z: 83% (#52 NAT'L)
#5 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TD%: 66% (#29 NAT'L)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2010 RANK | "D"
(All 12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#9 SC TTL 'D' | YDS ALWD: 399 (#84 Nat'l)
#7 SC SCORING 'D' | PPG ALWD: 26.7 (#63 Nat'l)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | RUSH 'D'
#7 SC Rush Yds Alwd: 140 Yds/Gm (#46 Nat'l)
#4 SC Fumbles Forc'd/Recov: 11 | 0.846/Gm (#30 Nat'l)
#3 SC Tackles-For-Loss: 4.7/Gm (#22 Nat'l)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2010 PASS DEFENSE
#11 SC Pass Yds Alwd: 260 Yds/Gm (#109 Nat'l)
#3 SC Int Gained: 15 | 1.15/Gm (#37 Nat'l)
#9 SC Sacks Obtained 27 | 2.07/Gm (#49 Nat'l)
#6 SC Pass-Efficiency 'D' (#61 Nat'l)
SO CALIFORNIA 2010 | DEFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#10 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 3-DWN 'D': 43.8% (#101 NAT'L)
#10 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RED-Z 'D': 86.4% (#92 NAT'L)
#5 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TD% ALWD: 61.4% (#64 NAT'L)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 2010 MISC KEY STATS
#5 SO CALIFORNIA | 2010 SPECIAL TEAMS (#23 Nat'l)
#4 SC T-Over Margin: +0.31 (#34 Nat'l)
#10 SC Penalties: 7.1/Gm (#99 Nat'l)
#10 SC Penalties: 61 Yds/Gm (#94 Nat'l)
#5 SO CALIFORNIA 2010 CLOSE GAME RECORD: 3-3
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY
#3 SO CALIFORNIA SCHEDULE STRENGTH 2011
SO CALIFORNIA 3RD TOUGHEST PAC-12 SCHEDULE (2011)
SO CALIFORNIA 7TH TOUGHEST SCHEDULE NAT'L (2011)
SO CALIFORNIA moved UP 10-spots (Harder this Yr)
SO CALIFORNIA 7TH TOUGHEST SCHEDULE, PAC-12 (2010)
SO CALIFORNIA Final 2010 Nat'l Ranking
SO CALIFORNIA 17th Toughest & 7th Toughest in PAC-12
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | ATS TRENDS
2010 SC TROJANS: Slow Start.....Even Slower Finish
SC STARTED 0-2 ATS
SC STARTED 1-4 ATS
SC FINISHED 2-4 ATS
Trojans Began 2010 Season 0-2 ATS,
Fell short of Spread at HAWAII in Opener by OVER TD
(SC -21 | Won 49-36)
Then looked Vanilla-as-Hell vs UVa Wahoo's
As 20-Pt Favorites, Hung on for 17-14 Win
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA QUALITY 2010 WINS | COVER(S):
WEEK 7: CALIFORNIA at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-2)
Southern California 48, California 14
Just 1 Week removed from devastating, 'only-if ' 37-35 Loss
In Palo Alto at Then #16 Stanford,
SC Racked-Up 602 YDS
& Trojans Steam-Rolled Bears, 48-14 in LA
SO CAL | BAD 2010 LOSSES | FAILED COVER(S):
WEEK 12: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-3) at OREGON STATE
OREGON STATE 36, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 7
Trojans misery in Willamette Valley grinds on
Game looked like unexpected snapping point,
The end-of-the rope for Team
Finally realizing they were actually done in 2 weeks
(w/o Post-Season)
SC HC Kiffin yanked numerous starters Mid-Second Q
w/Beavers rolling up a 20-3 Lead
Just a week removed from Ore St worst loss in many yrs
Beavs listless effort, home Junk-Punch,
Courtesy of previously winless in Conf,
Wazzu Cougs, 31-14
FEW Folks saw THIS coming
Esp w/SC's fresh off inspiring BTB Wins
(FOUR COMBINED PTS)
Over ARIZ ST: 34-33 & AZ in Tucson: 24-21
_____________________
\
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
 |
| Ucla Bruins |
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
UCLA BRUINS | 2-DEEP / SR STATS
#8 UCLA | 11 Total Seniors on 44-Deep Roster
#1 UCLA | 17 Total Starters Returning in 2011
UCLA BRUINS | 2011 LETTERMAN STATS
#6 UCLA | Total Letterman Returning (49)
#2 UCLA | Total Letterman Lost 2010 (23)
#9 UCLA | Total Letterman NET RETURNING (+26)
#1 UCLA | Total Letterman Starters Ret (77% | #7 Nat'l)
UCLA BRUINS | 2011 "EXPERIENCE" RATING:
(Factoring Class | Year % / No Starts)
#3 UCLA | 70% Experience Rating
UCLA BRUINS | 2011 OFFENSE
#1 UCLA | O-Starters Returning (9*) 2 Experienced QB's
#1 UCLA | O-Ydge Returning (100%)
#5 UCLA | O-Line Starts Returning (80 Starts)
UCLA | 2011 OFFENSE UNIT RANKS
#10 UCLA QUARTERBACKS
UCLA QB Jr 6-2 | 231 K Prince
Injured Knee in Preseason | Started 5 Games
Disappointing Year for Kevin Prince
Esp. after showing progress during 11 Starts
Prince/UCLA Overachieving 7-6 & Bowl-W
(09-10 as Upstart Freshman)
UCLA QB Jr 6-2 | 226 R Brehaut
Brehaut entered UCLA QB sweepstakes mid-season
Results were occasionally superb (321 Yds vs. ASU)
Overall not great:
BREHAUT QB-RATING: 110 (#8 | #86 Nat'l)
BREHAUT: 23.6 Att/Gm | Just 6.1 Yd/At | 6 TD-7 Int | 144 YPG
Yet overall, UCLA's 2010 QB/Passing Results: MISERABLE
UCLA DEAD-LAST PAC-12 PASSING
(UCLA slightly better, Conf-Only Gms: #11 | 161 YPG)
UCLA #116 of 120 FBS Tms Passing
UCLA OVERALL AVG: 141 Yd/Gm
Prince played w/a damaged knee since preseason practices
& Brehaut was a unconventional fit for the Pistol Offense
2011-12, UCLA HC RICK NEUHEISEL
Ostensibly assumes command of UCLA's Offense
Big function in Neuheisel's Plan:
Landing TWO Pistol-Equipped QB's (1 each of l-2 Yrs)
UCLA's HIGHLY-TOUTED TOP-15 Rated Duo of QB's
JUCO UCLA QB Jr 6-3 | 228 N Crissman
(Injured Last Season)
Gem of '10 Class, expected to challenge for '11 Starting QB:
UCLA QB 6-4¼ | 227 TRUE FRESHMAN Brett Hundley
Hundley was in for Spring
Rated Anywhere from #2 to #7 NATIONALLY
PROFESSOR DONKEY COULD SPEAK TO THIS:
HUNDLEY is reportedly savvy beyond his 18-Yrs,
Runs Bruin Pistol w/EXPERT Precision
& made huge strides in a short very Spring Practace period
UCLA has a Clown-Car of QB's on the Roster
(Incl Fr 6-1 | 188 Jerry Neuheisel, expected to Red Shirt)
AND 6-4 | 203 rFr Schuh
UCLA has 2x QB's w/game experience, even if limited
QB Jr Turney | QB JUCO Sr Bell
(Combined 27 Snaps 2010, w/just 1 TTL Completion, w/14 At)
#5 UCLA RUSHING
UCLA RB Jr 5-10 | 201 J Franklin
SEC-TM ALL-CONF Running Back, Workhorse (19 Career Starts)
Franklin very good OL & benefits from Battering Ram Lead FB
To Run w/& thru
UCLA FULLBACK Soph 6-5 | 242 A Barr
Bulldog, Hybyid Slot/TE/Fullback
Pistol "Full-H-Back
Essentially Barr provides 'SWEEP-N-CLEAR' Wreacking Ball
(Barr just 9 Total Catches | 6 Total Carries in '10)
#5 UCLA RECEIVING
All Sr / Experienced Starters
EVERY 2010 CATCH & YARD GAINED RETURNS IN 2011
UCLA SLOT RECEIVER Sr 6-5 | 217 Rosario
29 Catches (11 on 3RD Downs)
Injury-pleauged Career, (#13 in PAC-12, 2011)
Rosario gives Bruins great mis-match opportunities
(Jump-Balls' | "Hook-Post-Ups'
UCLA WIDE-OUT/FLANKER Sr 6-3 | 211 T EMBREE
31 CAREER-STARTS
LEADING UCLA RECIVER (#10 in PAC-12, 2010)
#8 UCLA OFFENSIVE LINE
A little undertated - esp w/INJURIES a thing of the past
UCLA (Including SR TE) Essentially Starts 4 of 6 Top-Notch OL
3 of 5 Starters Back
MORE IMPORTANTLY: UCLA 80 RETURNING GM STARTS
UCLA ALSO BRINGS HIGHEST OL CLASS%
(Incl TE Sr Harkley)
3.5 Yrs Experience (Based on obversimplified Senior=4, Junior=3)
(RT-SR | LT-SR | CENTER-SR | TE-SR | LG-JR | RG-SOPH)
* HAISAK (Proj Starter) OUT | INELIGIBLE
UCLA 6-4 | 306 Baca
Will slide BACK into his 2010 Starting Spot
UCLA OT Sr 6-5 | 337 Harris
UCLA OT Sr 6-5 | 316 Sheller
These Two Tackles Played FOUR Positions in 2010
(CENTER | LONG-SNAP | TACKLE | GUARD)
UCLA OG 6-4 | 333 Ward
UCLA CENTER Sr 6-1 | 322 Maiava
As we detailed in earlier UCLA Thread,
This Unit is DEEP & ENORMOUS
As we're likely to see in Tempe also this year
This OL Unit - recruited FOR the Pistol,
Is now SEASONED in Year 2+,
& ought to truly begin to show the results Bruins expected
UCLA BRUINS | 2011 DEFENSE
#1 UCLA | D-Starters Returning (8)
#3 UCLA | D-Tackles Returning (71%)
UCLA BRUINS | 2011 DEFENSE UNIT RANKS
#4 UCLA DEFENSIVE LINE
UCLA DE Soph 6-4 | 271 Odghizuwa
(6 Starts 2010)
UCLA DE Jr 6-4 | 273 Jones
(17 CAREER STARTS)
UCLA DT Sr 6-5 | 301 Chandler
(Former TE, 4 Starts on Offense)
UCLA DT 6-4 | 297 Marsh
(4 Starts in 2010)
AGAIN, we've talked a great deal about UCLA
THIS UNIT is very Underrated & particularly DEEP
3 of 4 STARTERS BACK
The Fast DL was exteemely adept at knocking passes down
6 of 7 UCLA DL's & LB's are 6-4 & above
YET UCLA is BIG on Paper,
Yet VASTLY Underachieved in comparison to Talent Level
UCLA #11 Sacks (25 | 1.92/Gm)
UCLA #11 TTL DEFENSE (421 Yds Alwd)
UCLA #11 TTL PTS ALWD (34 PPG Alwd)
#6 UCLA LINEBACKERS
UCLA LB Jr 6-3 | 256 Larimore
(Returns after Inj Filled Yr | 7 Career Starts)
UCLA LB Sr 5-11 | 235 Westgate
(2ND TM ALL-CONF)
UCLA LB Soph 6-4 | 230 Zummwalt
(4 Starts, Not listed as RET STARTER on all sites/Media Guides)
#5 UCLA SECONDARY
Astonishingly LOW Rating considering
UCLA's #5 Pass-Yd Alwd 2010
& again, 3 of 4 Starters Returning
(ALL-4 are UPPERCLASSMEN)
GOOD STAT-WORTHY Unit
Most Imporrtantly, UCLA SECONDARY/STARTERS BACK
BRING 26, 20, 12 Gm Starts to Bruin Defense
Bruins Secondary is led by energetic
UCLA SS Sr 5-11 | 202 TONY DYE
(26 CAREER STARTS | HN-MENTION, ALL-CONF)
Next to Cliff Harris, DYE is the most disruptive DB in PAC-12
#2 Pass Break-Ups & #2 Passes-Defended
UCLA CB Jr 6-1 | 215 Hester
(12 Career Starts)
UCLA FS Jr 6-0 | 194 Hilliard
(Listed as New Starter, yet has played in 18 Gms)
UCLA CB Jr 6-2 | 172 Price
(20 Career Starts)
Wiry Price generally delegated to hem in Head-Topper WR's
Outstanding Tackler;
Especially for thin CB (50 Tkls as TRUE-Fr)
#6 UCLA | 2011 Special Teams Rating
UCLA New Freshman Starting Kicker
K rFr 6-0 | 222 Kip Smith
(#4 Rated PK Recruit)
Smith 1ST Tm All-American HS Kicker
Reportedly booming leg on Kickoffs,
All but THREE of Smith's 50 HS Kickoffs were not returned
(Big shoes to fill, replacing All-Conf PK, Forbath
Bruins Return 1ST TM All-Conf Starting Punter
P Jr 6-1 | 211 Jeff Locke
Nearly 44 YPP (43.9)
2010 RECAP
UCLA BRUINS 4-8 (2-7 Conf | 4-8 ATS)
UCLA BRUINS | 2011 SCORING
#11 UCLA 20.2 OVERALL PPG (#104 Nat'l)
#12 UCLA 17.2 CONF GM PPG
#10 UCLA 30.3 OPPONENT PPG
#12 UCLA 34.2 CONF OPPONENT PPG
#11 UCLA OVERALL MARGIN: <-10.1> PPG
#12 UCLA CONF GM MARGIN: <-16.8> PPG
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 OFFENSE | PAC-12 Rank*
(All *12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#12 UCLA TTL YDS / GM: 317 Yds/Gm (#100 Nat'l)
#11 UCLA TTL PTS / GM: 20.2 (#104 Nat'l)
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 RUSH OFFENSE
#4 UCLA | Rushing: 176 Yds/Gm, (#32 Nat'l)
#12 UCLA | Fumbles Surrendered: 15 (#108 Nat'l)
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 PASS OFFENSE
#12 UCLA | Pass Offense: 141 Yds/Gm (#116 Nat'l)
#12 UCLA | Int Thrown: 1.16/Gm (#103 Nat'l)
#11 UCLA | Tackles For Loss Alwd: 7.2/Gm (#106 Nat'l)
#7 UCLA | Ttl Sacks Alwd: 27 | 2.25/Gm (#73 Nat'l)
UCLA 2010 | OFFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#10 UCLA 3RD DOWN: 35% (#95 NAT'L)
#10 UCLA RED-ZONE: 75% (#107 NAT'L)
#10 UCLA TD%: 58.3% (#75 NAT'L)
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 DEFENSE RANK
(All 12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#11 UCLA | TTL 'D' | YDS ALWD: 420 (#94 Nat'l)
#10 UCLA | SCORING 'D' | YDS ALWD: (#85 Nat'l)
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 RUSH DEFENSE
#11 UCLA | Rush Yds Alwd: 206 YPG (#109 Nat'l)
#3 UCLA | Fumbles Forc'd/Recov'd: 11 | 0.917/Gm (#108 Nat'l)
#11 UCLA | Tackles-For-Loss: 5.5/Gm (#71 Nat'l)
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 PASS DEFENSE
#5 UCLA | Pass Yd Alwd: 215 YPG (#53 Nat'l)
#12 UCLA | Int Gained: 0.58/Gm (#111 Nat'l)
#10 UCLA | Sacks Obtained 25 | 1.92/Gm (#60 Nat'l)
#7 UCLA | Pass-Efficiency 'D' (#71 Nat'l)
UCLA 2010 | DEFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#11 UCLA 3RD DOWN 'D': 44.1% (#105 NAT'L)
#11 UCLA RED-ZONE 'D': 88% (#101 NAT'L)
#6 UCLA TD% ALWD: 62% (#68 NAT'L)
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 MISC KEY STATS
#4 UCLA BRUINS | 2010 SPECIAL TEAMS (#20 Nat'l)
#12 UCLA | T-Over Margin: <-0.92> (#113 Nat'l)
#6 UCLA | Penalties: 6.7/Gm (#90 Nat'l)
#7 UCLA | Penalties: 60 Yds/Gm (#97 Nat'l)
#4 UCLA 2010 CLOSE GAME RECORD: 1-0
UCLA SCHEDULE STRENGTH
UCLA 6TH TOUGHEST PAC-12 SCHEDULE (2011)
UCLA 28TH TOUGHEST SCHEDULE NATION (2011)
UCLA moved down 24-spots (EASIER in 2011)
UCLA HAD 4TH TOUGHEST SCHEDULE, PAC-12 (2010)
UCLA Final 2010 Nat'l Ranking:
UCLA 4th Toughest Nat'l
UCLA 4th Toughest, PAC-12
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 ATS TRENDS
BRUINS 2010: Slow Start.....Even Slower Finish
STARTED 0-2 ATS
STARTED 2-5 ATS
FINISHED 0-3 ATS
FINISHED 1-6-1 ATS
Bruins Began 2010 Season 0-2 ATS,
Fell short of Spread at K-State in Opener by a Full TD
Blanked 35-0 at Home by Stanford in Week 2
(Missed number by 29-Pts)
Bruins were more than a Full-TD Short
Of ATS Number in Final-3 Gms of Season:
at Wash (15-pt Huskies Cover)
at Ariz St (8-Pt Devs Cover)
SO CAL in Rose Bowl (Trojans Covered by 8-Pts)
UCLA 'CLEARLY COVERED'
JUST 1 of FINAL 8 POINT SPREADS
(Lone Cover was Bruins' Week 10
Comeback Home 'W' vs. ORST. 17-14)
UCLA only other S-U win
Came vs. Perennial Doormat, Wazzu.
Bruins again fell short of Point spread by Double-Digits
(UCLA Beat Cougs 42-28, as -24 Favorites in Week 5)
UCLA QUALITY 2010 WINS | COVER(S):
WEEK 4: UCLA at Texas: Bruins 34, #7 Longhorns 12
15-Pt-Dog Bruins pulled away
From bewildered & previously unbeaten #7 Horns
In Austin's Memorial Stadium.
UCLA's Win was quickly billed: "Week 4 Signature Upset".
UCLA's monumental win marked the 2nd of BTB Victories
Over Ranked Opponents
(Week 3: UCLA Beat #25 Houston, 31-13 in Rose Bowl).
UCLA now figured to be in bounce back form
Having emerged from unforgiving, vicious September Schedule
With a 2-2 Record.
UCLA's daunting September Line-up
Included two BIG-XII Roadies
(2009-2010 BCS-Title Gm Participant
FBS Runner-Up, Horns),
& three of four Ranked Opponents.
The Bruins earned respect with the Win at #7 Horns,
& gave UCLA the distinction of BTB victories
Over Ranked Opponents from State of Texas
(UCLA beat Houston, 31-13 in Rose Bowl week prior).
Most importantly, after 0-2 start, UCLA ended Sept at .500
UCLA's substantial win at Texas wasn't an outright fluke;
Yet IS undeniably, heavily fortified
w/more unlikely & short-sided UCLA numbers
Than we may EVER see from a Team that WON by 22 Points.
Bruins pulled away from Tx
despite allowing just 1 fewer sack (4) than passes completed (5).
UCLA gained just 27 Total Yards thru the air vs. Texas.
Entering 4th-Quarter:
TX: 135 Yard Advantage
TX: Held UCLA to 71 Total Yards
TX Whopping 22-7 First-Down Advantage,
TX STILL Trailed Bruins 27-6
For what it's worth, UCLA's Pair of September 2010 Wins
Became quickly & thoroughly less significant in retrospect.
UCLA's Win over Ranked-Houston Team was devalued
w/Cougars key Injury
To Heisman-Candidate QB Sr 6-2 | 210 Case Keenum
Keenum expected IN Uniform
For Bruins September 3, 2011 Opener in Houston, Texas.
Despite entering Gm vs UCLA
Riding sparkling 32-2 Overall Streak
The Loss to UCLA was Horns first at Home
Since Mid-Season, (21-41 K-State),
& also first of Texas' 7 inexplicable L's Final 9 Gms
Overall (Horns Avg'd JUST 1.77 L's/Yr From 01-09).
Horns ended 2010 w/incomprehensible 5-7 LOSING Season.
UCLA BRUINS | 2010 SUBSTANDARD GMS L's
FAILED COVER(S):
FAILED COVER(S):
WEEK 5: UCLA 42, Wazzu 28
WEEK 6: UCLA 7, at California 35
WEEK 8: UCLA 13, at Oregon 60
With everything to play for
Entering October Conference 'Meat' of schedule,
Bruins' turned in a shabby effort
vs. perennial basement resident, Wazzu,
Failing to Cover by Double-Digits in Rose Bowl, 42-28.
Then, UCLA was demolished
By combined 95-20 Score at Cal & at Oregon,
On way to a miserable 1-6 Strait-up Slide, Final-7 Game
_____________________
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
 |
| Colorado Buffaloes |
RETURNING | ROSTER ANALYSIS
CU BUFFS | 2-DEEP / SENIOR STATS
#2 Colo | 18 Total Seniors on 44-Deep Roster
#2 Colo | Total Starters Returning in 2011 (16)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2011 LETTERMAN STATS
#5 Colo | Total Letterman Returning (51)
#7 Colo | Total Letterman Lost 2010 (21)
#8 Colo | Total Letterman NET RETURNING (+30)
#2 Colo | Total Letterman Starters Ret (71% | #22 Nat'l)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2011 "EXPERIENCE" RATING:
(Factoring Class | Year % / No Starts)
#4 Colorado Buffaloes | 69% Experience Rating
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2011 OFFENSE
#1-A CU O-Starters Returning (9) Including QB
#7 CU O-Yardage Returning (71%)
#4 CU OL Starts Returning (86 Starts)**
** Untimely 'Retirement' of Buffs' 3-Yr Starting CENTER
CU CENTER Sr 6-3 | 294 MIKE ILTIS
Colorado's OL Returning Game Start Stat Numbers
From CLEAR #1 PAC-12 TTL OL Gm Starts (91)
Down to #4 with 82 Returning Gm Starts #4
Behind (1) OSU-91 (2) Cal-86 & (3) ASU-84
Iltis stepped away from Football to concentrate on academics
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2011 OFFENSE UNIT RANKS
#11 COLORADO QUARTERBACKS
CU QB Sr 6-1 | 210 Hansen
16 Career Starts, 15 TD | 17 INT
Hansen's tenure at CU exemplifies
Buffs unfulfilled performance
Buff QB play has been 'consistently erratic'
Hansen's precarious last 2 Seasons
Injuries shortened 2010 career by almost ½ Season
Hansen's vastly improved Passing %
(Raised 13-Pts to 68% last Yr)
Offset somewhat by his persistent urge to force balls into Doubles
Hansen's symmetrical numbers
Belie high-risk, high-reward performance
HANSEN Avg nearly 1-1-1 (START-TD-INT)
#6 COLORADO RUSHING
CU RB Sr 5-6 | 173 Stewart
32 GAMES PLAYED | 15 STARTS
'08: 622 TTL YDS | 14.7 CAR/Gm | 4.7 YPC | 69 YPG | 2 TD
'09: 804 TTL YDS | 18 CAR/Gm | 4.1 YPC | 73 YPG | 9 TD
'10: 1316 TTL YDS | 24.2 CAR/Gm | 4.6 YPC | 110 YPG | 10 TD
Vet Colorado Tailback
Arrived in Boulder
As a luminary of Dan Haskins' Recruiting proficiency
Even after finally putting up big numbers
Finishing w/3RD most Rushing Yds in BIG-XII
Earning 2ND TEAM, All-Conference in 2010
Stewart's Overall Yd Avg of just over 4 YPC
Has underachieved overall
Nevertheless,
Stewart is LONE Sr 1000 Yd RB
Lines up behind TOP-? Rated O-LINE
#10 COLORADO RECEIVING
Mixed-up Unit; probably underrated
3 of 4 CU Starting Receivers are Sr's
½ CU Starters are Transfers
CU WR Sr 6-2 | 214 Clemons
#2 Returning CU Receiver
Clemons Transferred to Colorado from Michigan State
Started 9 Gms for Sparty '07-08)
Decent Possession Receiver
CU WR Soph 6-1 | 157 Richardson
Beanpole Speedster Richardson
Truly surpassed his assumed Big-Play Rep
Top Buffs Returning Receiver
RICHARDSON IS ONE OF NCAA's 9 BEST
"BIG-PLAY MEN" in CFB Returning in 2011
Stat I'm calling "Big-Playmakers' i.e., 'Break-Away' Threats
NINE PAC-12 PLAYERS RETURN in 2011
FROM NCAA's 2010's TOP-100 Biggest Playmakers
Of these 100, just 53 TTL Return in 2011
(47 either Graduated or jumped to NFL)
53 NCAA Returning TOP 20 to 50+ Yd Playmakers
CU's Soph WR RICHARDSON: #9 of these 9
9TH HIGHEST 'GM-BREAKER' AMONG PAC-12 PLAYERS
RICHARDSON RANKS #44 OVERALL, CFB
Returning Big-Play Man in NCAA
22 Catches of +20 Yds
15 Catches of +30 Yds
10 Catches of +40 Yds
& Richardson TIED for 2ND in PAC-12
w/6 Catches of 50+ Yds
Richardson also Scored 6 TD
All as TRUE FRESHMEN, All-BIG-XII WR in 2010
CU WR Sr 6-2 | 199 Gray
Real unknown factor, Rare Transfer
Of Converted QB (Gray) whom insists on playing WR
Gray will start at Wideout for Buffs
Granted 2011 eligibility from clearinghouse
After attending CU Spring Classes
CU TE Sr 6-5 | 257 Deehan
(18 Career Starts | 2½ Receptions/Gm)
#6 COLORADO OFFENSIVE LINE
Buffs WERE #1, w/most OL Starts Returning Rating
CU OL took a hard hit in early June
The announcement of CU VET SR Center,
Buffs 6-3 | 296 Mike Iltis 'Retirement'
CU OL knocked down a peg,
Losing one of Buffs Starting Core of 3 CU Sr's
CU's Center Spot was one of few OL Spots
w/o any significant depth
CU CENTER:
1 of 2 Underclassmen whom have not played a down
Likely Starter:
CU CTR rFr 6-2 | 301 Munyer or Soph 6-3 | 291 Handler
RETURNING MULTI-YEAR STARTERS:
Both CU Guards are First-Rate | NFL-Prospects
w/OVER 60-Gm Starts & 1500 FBS gm Plays on Resume
CU OG Sr 6-8 | 314 Miller
Giant, Blue-Chip #1 OL Recruit way back in 06 All-Cf Guard
(31 Gm Starts | ALL 4 OL POSITIONS | Sure-Fire NFL Lineman)
CU OG Sr 6-4 | 312 Adkins
(20 Starts | All at Left Guard)
CU OT Soph 6-4 | 304 Bakhtiari
(11 Starts as Freshman | Not-Rated out of HS)
Dramatically exceeded anticipation at RT in 2010
Bakhtiari came out of obscurity
To earn ALL-CONF as FRESHMAN
Helped CU Protect QB, Colo Sacks allowed improved
LAST Conf '09 (#103 Nat'l) to 4TH BIG-XII (#21 Nat'l) '10
CU RT 6-5 | 298 Harris
Unknown OL Position #2
Zero Gm Starts here
Buffs 60 GM STARTS IN MIDDLE OF OL
ZERO STARTS RETURNING ON EDGES
(Except All-Conf Tight End, Deehan)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2011 DEFENSE
#4 CU D-Starters Returning (7)
#4 CU Defense Tackles Returning (68%)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2011 D-UNIT RANKS
Buffs are one of the growing number of Tms
To Implement some configuration different than 4-3
CU Lines Up in Predominant "3-4" Defense
#7 COLORADO DEFENSIVE LINE
Even w/2 of Top 3, & 3 of top 6 Tacklers Gone from 2010
3 of 4 CU DL Starters Return
Led by TWO All-Conference Players
CU D-END Sr 6-1 | 215 Hartigan
(17 Starts) | 2ND Tm All-Conference
CU DT Sr 6-1 | 288 Cunningham
(31 Career Starts) | Superb 'Underneath' Pass Defender
CU NOSETACKLE 6-4 |282 Pericak
Started EVERY Game since rFr Year (24 Gm Starts)
All-Conference NT
CU D-END Soph 6-3 | 244 Diribe
Only 'NEW' Line Starter, ONE Gm Start at Colo Last yr
#11 COLORADO LINEBACKERS
LIGHT UNIT (by-PAC-12 Standards)
2 of 3 Starters Back
Injury questions keep this Rating Low
Returning Starters:
CU LB 6-1 | 226 Major
Highest Rated LB Incoming LB in 08 from HS in BIG-XII
Injuries have been constant problem
CU LB Soph 6-2 | 218 Norbriga
Started last ½ of 2010 Season for CU
Took Lumps - yet proved to be decent Run-Stopper
CU LB Jr 6-2 | 222 Rippy
Played a lot of Football (20 Gm Appearances)
Only cracked Starting Lineup 1x
#12 COLORADO SECONDARY
Patchwork Secondary
CU Pass 'D' would have been DEAD-LAST in PAC-12
CU Allowed 260 YPG in 2010
& Have 2 Untested Sophomores at each Corner in '11
CU CB Soph 6-0 | 188 Olatoye
Zero Starts | 9 Gm Appearances 2010
CU CB Soph 6-1 | 184 Bell
1 Start
CU Safety's - moderate experience
Yet both have been in & out of Buffs line-up(s)
CU SS Sr 5-10 | 197 Perkins
Lost in 2010 (ACL) in Gm 5
Not known if Perkins will/can return to 09 form )& before
Perkins' 18 Career Starts
CU FS Jr 6-1 | 215 Polk
15 Career Starts
Good Range & Above Avg Closing Speed
#11 COLORADO | 2011 SPECIAL TEAMS
CU PUNTER Soph 6-2 | 192 Grossnickle
Colo Returns Best 'Hang-Time Punter (BIG-XII)
CU PLACEKICKER will be New, reportedly a toss-up between
CU PK TRUE Freshman 5-11 | 187 Oliver &
CU PK Soph 6-3 | 194 Castor
(Castor: Buffs 2010 Back-up Kicker)
_____________________
2010 RECAP
COLORADO BUFFALOES 5-7 (2-6 Conf | 5-6 ATS)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 SCORING
#9 COLORADO 24.2 PPG (#84 Nat'l)
#7 COLORADO PPG Conf | 24.2 PPG
#11 COLORADO OPPONENT: 30.8 PPG (#85 Nat'l)
#10 COLORADO CONF GM OPP: 30.8 PPG
#9 COLORADO PPG MARGIN: <-6.6> PPG
#9 COLORADO CONF GM MGN: <-6.6> PPG
CU BUFFS | 2010 OFFENSE | PAC-12 Rank*
(Colorado 2010 Statistics Averaged into/with PAC-12 Teams)
#8 COLO TTL YDS / GM: 360 Yds/Gm (#79 Nat'l)
#8 COLO TTL YDS / GM: 360 Yds/Gm
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 RUSH OFFENSE
#9 CU Rush Offense Yds/Gm: 137 Yds/Gm, (#85 Nat'l)
#5 CU Fumbles Surrendered: 8 | 0.67/Gm (#26 Nat'l)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 PASS OFFENSE
#8 CU Pass Offense: 233 Yds/Gm (#59 Nat'l)
#4 CU Int Thrown: 11 | 0.917/Gm (#41 Nat'l)
#5 CU Tkl for Lss Alwd: 5.4/Gm (#47 Nat'l)
#5 CU Ttl Sacks Alwd: 21 | 1.75/Gm (#43 Nat'l)
COLORADO 2010 | OFFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#3 COLORADO 3-DOWN: 45.1% (#28 NAT'L)
#8 COLORADO RED-Z: 80.6% (#72 NAT'L)
#7 COLORADO TD%: 64% (#41 NAT'L)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 TOTAL DEFENSE
(All 12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#7 COLO TOTAL 'D' | YDS ALWD: 400 (#84 Nat'l)
#9 COLO TOTAL CONF YDS | ALWD: 400 YPG
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 RUSH DEFENSE
#7 COLO Rush Yds Alwd: 140 Yds/Gm (#48 Nat'l)
#9 COLO Fumbles Forcd/Recov'd: 9 | 0.667/Gm (#65 Nat'l)
#10 COLO Tackles-For-Loss: 5.6/Gm (#70 Nat'l)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 PASS DEFENSE
#12 Colo Pass Yds Alwd: 260 Yds/Gm (#110 Nat'l)
#9 Colo Int Gained: 10 | 0.833/Gm (#79 Nat'l)
#7 Colo Sacks Obtained | 29 | 2.42/Gm (#38 Nat'l)
#12 Colo Pass-Efficiency 'Defense' (#113 Nat'l)
COLORADO 2010 | DEFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#7 COLORADO 3-DOWN 'D': 41% (#72 NAT'L)
#6 COLORADO RED-Z 'D': 83.3% (#68 NAT'L)
#4 COLORADO TD% ALWD: 61.1% (#62 NAT'L)
COLORADO BUFFALOES | MISC KEY STATS
#11 COLORADO SPECIAL TEAMS (#83 Nat'l)
#7 CU T-Over Margin: 0.0 (#56 Nat'l)
#6 CU Penalties: 6.6/Gm (#85 Nat'l)
#3 CU Penalties: 52 Yds/Gm (#62 Nat'l)
COLORADO 2011 SCHEDULE STRENGTH
COLORADO #1 TOUGHEST PAC-12 SCHEDULE (2011)
COLORADO #1 TOUGHEST SCHEDULE NAT'L (2011)
COLORADO moved UP 14-spots (Harder this Yr)
COLORADO FINAL 2010 SCHEDULE STRENGTH:
COLORADO 4TH TOUGHEST SCHEDULE PAC-12 (2010)
COLORADO 15TH TOUGHEST SCHEDULE NAT'L (2010)
______________
#9 COLORADO 2010 CLOSE GAME RECORD: 1-2
_____________
COLORADO BUFFALOES | 2010 ATS TRENDS
CU BUFFS 2010:
Decent Start, floundering, underachieving Slower Finish
STARTED 3-1 ATS
FINISHED 2-5-1 ATS
COLO 2010 QUALITY W's & BAD L's/FAILED COVERS
May best be weaved together...
COLORADO BUFFALOES 2011 ROLLER-COASTER:
VERY GOOD:
WEEK 1: COLORADO (-10) vs. COLORADO STATE
COLORADO 24, COLORADO STATE 3
FOLLOWING WEEK; VERY POOR:
WEEK 2: COLORADO (+10) at CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA 52, COLORADO 7
ECT, BACK TO VERY GOOD:
WEEK 5: GEORGIA at COLORADO (+4)
COLORADO 29, GEORGIA 27
Then....5 Consecutive Losses...(0-4-1 ATS)
The Hawkins Era in Boulder Crashed/Burned & Ended
__________________
 |
| Utah Utes |
RETURNING | STARTER ANALYSIS
UTAH UTES | 2-DEEP / Sr's STATS
#6 Utah | 12 Ttl Sr's | 44-Plyr Depth (½ UU 2-Deep are Jr's)
#9 Utah | Total Starters Returning 2011 (12)
UTAH UTES | 2011 LETTERMAN STATS
#4 Utah | Ttl Letterman Returning (52)
#12 Utah | Ttl Letterman Lost 2010 (26)
#5 Utah | Ttl Letterman NET RETURNING (+26)
#8 Utah | Ttl Letterman Starters Ret (56% | #88 Nat'l)
UTAH UTES 2011 | OVERALL "EXPERIENCE" RATING:
(Factoring Class | Year % / Number of Career Starts)
#5 Utah Utes | 62% Experience Rating
UTAH UTES | 2011 OFFENSE
#8 Utah | O-Starters Returning (7*) Incl QB (Jr Winn)
#11 Utah | O-Ydge Returning (49%)
#8 Utah | O-Line Starts Returning (63 Starts)
UTAH UTES | 2011 OFFENSE UNIT RANKS
#8 UTAH QUARTERBACK(s)
UU QB 6-1 | 198 Jr Wynn
15 Quality Gm Starts
Constant, numbers, even if they don't explode off page
Completed 60% of his passes
25-14 TD\INT Career Ratio
WYNN: Underrated, yet indistinguishable QB stats
Wynn STILL perceived to possess 'Weaker Arm'
WYNN's 4-Game Season-Ending Slump
Must contribute to these opinion(s)
#10 UTAH RUSHING
We MUST Question this Rating
UU unmistakably INEXPERIENCED BACKFIELD
DEPTH CHART
RB: 1. TRUE Fr 6-1 | 225 Langi | 2. JUCO White
(BOTH "In for Spring") Langi HIGHLY touted
FLBK: 1. rFr 6-4 | 263 M'phy | Soph 6'| 237 Wl'ms
#12 UTAH RECEIVING
Dead-Last…?
REALLY must question this rating
All 3 UU Upperclassmen Starters Back
(2 WR | TE) Including
UU WR Jr 6-1 | 196 Christopher
21 Solid Ttl Starts & 2ND Tm All-Conf WR
UU WR Jr 6-1 | 208 Matthews
Played in 23 Gms | 13 Quality Starts
Even if not huge number of catches
#7 UTAH OFFENSIVE LINE
This ALSO Appears LOW
UU again fields an ALL-300 Lb OL,
w/3 Returning Upper-class Starters
UU Career OL Starts: 65 (#8 PAC-12)
UU BALANCED OFFENSE (Factoring all Tms 2010 Stats)
Passing 61% of Offensive Plays
UU's Offense is Stylistically Arranged to elicit 'Balance'
UU O-LINE ALWD OPP TO GET TO WYNN Less than 1x/Gm
#3 UU Sacks Allowed: 11 TTL (#11 Nat'l | 0.85/Gm)
UTAH UTES | 2011 DEFENSE
#11 Utah | D-Starters Returning (5)
#7 Utah | D-Tackles Returning (61%)
UTAH UTES | 2011 DEFENSE UNIT RANKS
Utes Play a Hybrid '4-2-5' Defense
Popularized by TCU, among others
(Yet Frogs now usually Line-Up 3-4-5)
UTAH's DEFENSIVE SCHEME,
"Around-the-clock, continuous NICKEL'
w/2 Cornerbacks | 2 Safety's & 1 FULL-TIME Rover
& JUST 2 LB's
#7 UTAH DEFENSIVE LINE
MUST CONTINUE TO QUESTION THESE UU RATINGS
UU DL: ¾ Upperclassmen, 2 of 4 JUCO's
UU D-Line IS ENORMOUS, w/ENVIABLE DEPTH
(Multi-Gm Starter Back-Ups)
UU would have been #1 Rush-D (2010 PAC-10)
Looking at UTAH's Defense
Not only UU's substantial SIZE jumps out
But THE TRUE TEXTURE of a Well-Built,
Strong Program comes thru
EVEN if UU isn't going to have a TOP-20 Defense
UU'S DEPTH is superb
D-LINE 2-DEEP: 6 of 8 UPPERCLASSMEN
I. UPPERCLASSMEN PREVALENCE (Including Transfers)
DE Sr 6-5 | 294 Finau (JUCO Transfer - Via WVU)
DE Jr 6-3 | 246 Rolf (Transfer - Via Mich St
(Several Upperclassmen Former Utah Starters)
II. At Least 2 FORMER STARTERS Demoted to 2|3's
DE Sr Talamaivao (6 Career Starts)
DT Jr Dave Kruger (16 Career Starts)
III. UTAH SIZE
Said it before, yet when UU came to Corvallis in 2007
OSU Won 24-7,
Yet we were awestruck w/UU's Sheer Size/Strength
UU BOTH SIDES of Ball
('07 UU 're-tool yr, before UU 13-0 Season of 08)
UTAH D-LINE's substantial brawn is hard to miss
AVG: 6-5 | 291
Utah's Returning Sr Starters: 34 Career Game Starts
UU D-END Sr 6-3½ | 269 Shelby (27 Career Starts)
UU D-TKL Sr 6-4 | 298 Aiono (JUCO)
UU'S New DL STARTERS are Inexperienced, Yet
Essentially outmaneuvered/beat-out players
w/far more gm appearances
UU NOSETKL Jr 6-5 | 318 Lotulelei (JUCO)
Beat out Former Starter
UU Soph 6-1 | 308 Tuipulotu
UU D-END Soph 6-7¼ | 277 Joe Kruger
(Burned Freshman Year '10)
UU's Kruger Brothers
Reportedly set numerous new UU Weight Lifting Records
THIS IS REALLY saying something in SLC
All-in-all, UU New DL Starters
Nosetackle Lotulelei & Left Defensive End, Joe Kruger
w/1 TTL GM START Combined
Is a Unit Opposing we may want to isolate early
Might pay to be suspicious
Of UU's #11 Nat'l Rush-D (112 YPG Alwd in 2010 )
#4 UTAH LINEBACKERS
Utes compensate for their massive DL
w/ just 2 swift, on the move LB's
AVG SIZE: 'Just' 6-1 | 219
AVG SPEED? 4.51
Not an everyday LB DUO
UU RETURNING 2 of 2 LB STARTERS:
UU LB Soph 6-2 | 222 Belchen
Started all 13 Gms in 2010,
Belchen named to All-Conf (MWC) as Freshman
UU LB SR 6-0 | 216 Chaz Walker
Ideal example of just how complex & distinct
UU's 4-2-5 Defense is
LINEBACKER, WALKER Smaller
Than ½ of Utes Opposing PAC-12 SAFETY's
YET WALKER typifies UU distinctive/unique use of LB position
Walker is Svelte, Fast-as-Lightning, all over the field
Hard-Hitting LB Walker (2ND TM All-Conf / MWC)
Walker is #19 Returning Tackler in NATION (113)
Walker & Belchen: UU's #1 & #3 Tacklers (2010)
UTAH "ROVER"
Always lumped into Secondary,
ROVER generally implies LINEBACKER Size,
Run-Stopping, 'Underneath Pass-Coverage' Assignments
& repeatedly called upon to 'SPY'
Opposing QB's & Game-Breaker's
UU ROVER Sr 6-0 | 227 Martinez
UTAH's #2 Tackler in 2010
MARTINEZ #1 Ret Solo Tackler (37) & superb run-stopper
Martinez another ALL-CONF Player
(3RD TM, All Conf | MWC)
#6 UTAH SECONDARY
This appears to be possibly overrated Unit
Corners are Upperclassmen Starters,
Yet, all 4 Secondary Players: 'NEW' Starters
UTAH PASS-DEFENSE is Mystifying blend:
All-New. yet crazy-good/highly-touted & regarded recruits
UU CB Jr 5-10 | 186 Lacy
Likely Fastest Man in PAC-12 (4.27 Speed)
Recovering from Strange abdominal Inj
(Yet Played all 13 Gms as rFr '09)
Noteworthy New Secondary Starter,
UU SS 6-3 |205 McGill (JUCO | In for Fall)
Very highly coveted & heavy-handed Safety
Gives Utes desperately needed elevation
Needed to Cover "6-5"+ WR's in PAC-12
New CB's/Safety's have World-Class Speed
Yet untested, converted Offensive Players
FREE SAFETY is a legitimate UTAH question
UU FS rFr 6-0 | 201 Damian Payne
In system last yr as RS, yet to play a down
REAL UU Questionable spot
Utes #2 FS 6-2 | 220 G Bird
Expected to challenge for Starter Spot
Started TWICE in 08
Spelled Rover, FS/SS Positions Last Yr
Notable success (20 Tackles in spot minutes)
BIRD injured early spring, rehabbing
Expected to Back-up Payne
#3 UTAH UTES | 2011 SPECIAL TEAMS
UU 'New' Starting Kicker is misleading
Utah K Chris Peterson returns to Utes
After 2 Yr Missionary
UU PK consistent 14-19 (50 Long) Career
Thus, Return BOTH Starting PK & P
UU P Jr Sean Sellwood slumped in 2010 (37 Yd Avg)
Yet Career is very good 43 YPP
UTAH 2011 SCHEDULE STRENGTH
UTAH 7TH TOUGHEST PAC-12 SCHEDULE (2011)
UTAH 33RD TOUGHEST SCHEDULE NAT'L (2011)
UTAH MOVED UP 51-spots (Harder this Yr)
UTAH FINAL 2010 SCHEDULE STRENGTH:
UTAH 12TH TOUGHEST PAC-12 (2010)
UTAH 84TH TOUGHEST NAT'L (2010)
UTAH INTO THE PAC
Even w/PAC-12 Entry Season
Utes schedule Ranked #88 among 120 FBS Teams in 2011
After FCS Opener vs. Montana State,
Utes jump in w/exceedingly difficult
Week 2 & Week 3 BTB-Roadies:
Utah fittingly opens Official PAC-12 existence in idyllic setting:
Sep 10 in THE sanctuary of PAC-12 Football:
Los Angeles Coliseum vs. Southern California Trojans.
UU must immediately follow this
w/outlandishly early scheduled Gm
at Arch Rival Brigham Young in Provo on Sept 17
Cougs & Utes parting Conference ways from MWC
Forced Rivalry to an otherwise illogical date.
3 of next 4 UU Games are in SLC,
w/the lone Oct 15 Roadie at Pitt looming ominous.
Utah has favorable Odd-Year 5 HM | 4 RD Benefit
To start Conf Play
& UU catches perhaps BIGGEST BREAK of any PAC-12 Tm
UTAH SKIPS BOTH OREGON & STANFORD
Whew, Nice Break, Ute
______________
2010 RECAP | *Utah Final Year in Mountain West Conf
UTAH UTES 10-3 (7-1 Conf* | 8-5 ATS)
UTAH UTES | 2010 SCORING
#3 UTAH 33.1 PPG (#23 Nat'l)
#3 UTAH 33.1 PPG Conferences
#3 UTAH OPPONENT: 20.3 PPG (#24 Nat'l)
#2 UTAH CONF OPP: 20.3 PPG
#3 UTAH PPG MARGIN: +12.8 PPG (#16 Nat'l)
#3 UTAH CONF GM MGN: -12.8 PPG
UTAH UTES | 2010 OFFENSE | PAC-12 Rank*
(All *12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#6 UTAH TTL OFFENSE: 389 YPG (#52 Nat'l)
#6 UTAH CONF OFFENSE: 389 YPG
UTAH UTES | 2010 RUSH OFFENSE
#6 Utah Rushing: 153 YPG (#62 Nat'l)
#10 Utah Fumbles Surrendered: 14 (#103 Nat'l)
UTAH PASSING OFFENSE 2010
#7 Utah Passing: 236 YPG (#47 Nat'l)
#9 Utah Int Thrown: 0.92/Gm (#53 Nat'l)
#1 Utah Tkls For Loss Alwd: 3.5/Gm (#4 Nat'l)
#3 Utah Ttl Sacks Alwd: 27 | 0.85/Gm (#11 Nat'l)
UTAH 2010 | OFFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#5 UTAH 3-DOWN: 42.3% (#45 NAT'L)
#5 UTAH RED-Z: 83.7% (#49 NAT'L)
#4 UTAH TD%: 67.4% (#24 NAT'L)
UTAH UTES | 2010 DEFENSE | PAC-12 RANK*
(All 12 Teams in Conference Regrouped)
#3 UTAH TTL 'D' | YPG ALWD: 337 (#27 Nat'l)
#3 UTAH SCORING 'D' | YPG ALWD: (#24 Nat'l)
UTAH UTES | 2010 RUSH DEFENSE
#1 Utah Rush YPG Alwd: 112 YPG (#11 Nat'l)
#5 Utah Fumbles Forced/Recov'd: 11 | 0.85/Gm (#32 Nat'l)
#8 Utah Tackles-For-Loss: 5.9/Gm (#56 Nat'l)
UTAH UTES | 2010 PASS DEFENSE
#7 Utah Pass YPG Alwd: 225 YPG (#73 Nat'l)
#6 Utah Int Gained: 0.58/Gm (#59 Nat'l)
#6 Utah Sacks Obtained 29 | 2.23/Gm (#37 Nat'l)
#9 Utah Pass-Efficiency 'D' (#86 Nat'l)
UTAH 2010 | DEFENSIVE CONVERSION STATS
#4 UTAH 3-DOWN 'D': 36.3% (#26 NAT'L)
#7 UTAH RED-Z 'D': 83.3% (#69 NAT'L)
#2 UTAH TD% ALWD: 44.4% (#19 NAT'L)
UTAH UTES | 2010 MISC KEY STATS
#2 UTAH UTES 2010 SPECIAL TEAMS (#5 Nat'l)
#8 Utah | T-Over Margin: <-0.08> (#62 Nat'l)
#2 Utah | Penalties: 5.8/Gm (#55 Nat'l)
#2 Utah | Penalties: 51 YPG (#58 Nat'l)
UTAH UTES | 2010 ATS TRENDS
2010 UTAH UTES: BLISTERING Start ..... Dismal Finish
UTAH UTES STARTED 6-0-1 ATS RECORD
UTAH UTES FINISHED 0-3 ATS
UTAH UTES FINISHED 1-5 ATS
UTAH 2010 QUALITY WINS | COVER(S):
WEEK 5: UTAH (-6) at IOWA STATE
Utah 68, Iowa State 27
Utes hammered BIG-XII Cyclones in Ames
A quick check at Iowa State Resume'
& we cannot really discount UU's 41-Pt Win
As same 'ol ISU' in 2010
Iowa State was fresh off WINNING Season (7-6)
Included a Bowl Win (14-13 Over Minnesota)
ISU was 3-5 last year in BIG-XII
Utes were a steamroller, WEEK 2 THRU 7
WEEK 1 THRU 7: Utes ROLLED to Unbeaten 8-0 Record
ALSO RIPPED OFF 6-0-1 ATS
WEEK 7: COLORADO STATE at UTAH (-30)
UTAH 59, COLORADO STATE 6
UU Peaked w/53-Point Home Win Over Colorado State
UTES OUTGAINED RAMS BY STAGGERING +438 YDS!
2010 Week 3 thru 7, UU outgained opp's by:
+200 Yds
+255 Yds
+245 Yds
+248 Yds
+435 Yds
Utes Rolled thru 2/3'rds of 2010 Season Unbeaten
UU also pounded thru first 7 Games w/o Losing ATS
UTAH SUBSTANDARD GMS 2010 L's | FAILED COVER(S):
WEEK 9: TEXAS CHRISTIAN (-5) at UTAH
TCU 47, Utah 7
Utes Hosted MWC Unbeaten Showdown of the Yr
TCU at UTAH in 'SLC'
As we know, TCU thrashed Utah 47-7
& UU never fully recovered
Utes mailed in 3-28 L in South Bend following Wk
Roared back to salvage a 38-34 Win at SDSU
Closed Regular Season w/1-Pt Home Win over Rival BYU
Boise worked UU 26-3 in Vegas Bowl
UU CLEARLY COVERED' JUST 1 of FINAL 6 PT SPREADS
(Lone Cover was UU's Wk 12 Comeback Road 'W'
at Lame-Duck SDSU Aztecs)
W-O-W
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