2011 CFB SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

2011 CFB SCHEDULES
QUICK LOOK-IN's

W/FUTURES' PLAYS ATTACHED

Just pulling up Team Schedules w/1 or more idiosyncrasy

SEC & BIG-TEN SCHEDULES…AS USUAL
Look like some teams w/great big Stadiums
Demanding 1 & Done Deals - Understandable;
w/no Weeks off during Cutthroat Regular Season
Nonetheless, many 4 ROAD | 8 HOME Schedules in this bunch

SEC SCHEDULES

Kentucky
JUST 4 'TRUE' ROAD GAMES
Zero Road Gms till OCTOBER
Yet, Cats October Starts w/a BTB Bang:
  at LSU
  at South Carolina

Vanderbilt
#1 in FBS: Returning Players
(All 11 Offense | 9 Defense | Both Kicker & Punter)
DORES' SKIP LSU
w/UGa at Home,

VANDY: Must travel to Alabama & Florida
(All 22 Starters & 12 Home Gms may not help Vandy,
Vandy's Conf Opening WIN at Ole Miss in 2010
ONLY Vandy Conference Win in 2 Seasons (1-15)

Tennessee
JUST 4 ROAD GAMES
TENN: LSU & UGa AT HOME
Vols have 2 Biggies on Road
  at Florida
  at Alabama

Florida
JUST 4 'TRUE' ROAD GAMES
Zero Road Gms till OCTOBER
Gators: ALABAMA comes to Swamp,
Yet, Fla ,travels to LSU the following week
(& at Auburn immediately thereafter)

SMOOTHEST PATH, AFTER HUGE HURDLE
Georgia
After robust opener vs. Boise State in ATL
Dawgs Road opens up
Looks awfully smooth (for SEC Team)
UGa just 4 True Road Games
UGA SKIPS ALABAMA & LSU!

BIG XII SCHEDULES

Texas A&M
4 TRUE ROAD GMS
No True Roadie till Oct 8 (at TT)
A&M does travel to Norman (Nov 5)
Yet, remaining 3 Road Games are never 'easy';
   at K-State
   at TT &
   at Iowa State
May be clearest path to Conf Title in 2011 BIG XII

OFF-THE-RADAR
Baylor
4 True Road Gms
OU & TEXAS travelling to Waco
Only True Road Gm after Oct 29 is to Lawrence
Bears 2011 issues look to be all DEFENSE

Offensively, Baylor brings excellent tools back
BAYLOR: Efficient QB (Griffin: 22-8 Ratio, 146 QB Rating)
BAYLOR: Good Trio of Returning Talented WR Starters
BAYLOR: Better than Avg OL (4 of 5 Ret | 77 OL Gm Starts)

Texas Tech
Deceptive Schedule | Deceptive Team

GOOD: Only Road Gms till Oct 22, Raiders' will be Favored:
at New Mexico
at Kansas
BAD:
TT PLAYS OU, MIZZOU, & TEXAS all on Road
TT takes Bye-Week(s) too early & too late

BYE's: Week 2 & Week 14
TT was 8-5 in 2010 w/Bowl Win Over NW
TT also 4-0 in Close Gms;
Thus, TT may be driving a bit past their headlights
This play may look dead on Oct 21
When TT is sitting at 5-1 or 4-2
YET, NEW TECH QB
SEVEN SOPH's on a Refashioned Defense
Tech oght to have serious issues
When Raiders travel to Norman, Austin & Columbia

PAC-12 SCHEDULES OF NOTE

HIGHEST DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY
Colorado
#1 MOST DIFFICULT SCHEDULE IN NAT'L
7 Road Games
Plus Neutral Rival Game vs. Colo St
Not only Games themselves, yet
Buffs start the Season in Hawaii
Come Back for the Non-PAC-12 Non-Inaugural Opener
Followed by RIVAL Game in Denver vs. CSU Rams
THEN A TRIP TO COLUMBUS, OHIO
To Play Ohio State
ALL IN SEPTEMBER

Welcome to 'The Jungle', Jon Embree

DIFFICULT
Ucla
3 of first 5 on Road, w/o break
at Revenge Seeking Houston to Start
Back Home vs. Revenge-Seeking TEXAS
THEN
  at Oregon State
  at Stanford
Three more Road Games Later on, also

MISLEADING
Arizona
Cats (as Utah) catch a big break,
STANFORD & OREGON in Tucson
Yet AZ (w/ONE OL Game Start Back)
HAVE the Odd-Year, 5 Road Conference Game Slate,
& also Travel to Stillwater, Oklahoma (Sep 8)

Washington State
Just 3 TRUE FBS Home Games in Pullman
Cougs Face NW-Rival Ore St 300+ Miles Away in Seattle
(CLOSER for Beaver Fans than HOME-STANDING Cougs)
Cougs also play Apple Cup (Rival) Wash in Seattle's Qwest Field

California
Double-Jeopardy
Bears Face NEW PAC-12 Program,
COLORADO in Boulder in NON-COUNTING PAC-12 Game
Bears now play 10 CONFERENCE GAMES
SIX on 'Road'
The Bears 'HOME' Games will be held in AT+T Park (SF)

Utah
Schedule quoted several places as 'EASY'
FORTUNATE, YES...
(Skipping OREGON & STANFORD)
Yet, any schedule that OPENS FBS Play:
   at Southern California
   at Brigham Young
& includes
   at Pittsburgh (Mid-Season)
Is hardly 'easy'

MANAGEABLE
Southern California 
Arizona State 
Both Play 4 of first 5 at Home

ACC SCHEDULES

MISLEADING
Virginia Tech
VT: 6 Roadies in 2010
VT: Pulverized by Stan 40-12, Orange Bowl
VT: Lost 2010 Catalyst'; #1 QB in ACC
Schedule easier than it Looks

VT: All 2011 Rd Opp had losing 2010 Rec's
   East Carolina (6-7)
   Marshall (5-7)
   Wake Forest (3-9)
   Duke (3-9)
   Georgia Tech (6-7)
   Virginia (4-8)
VT: Just FOUR 2010 Road Gms in 2010,
Yet the Hokies Won All 4
So much public steam VT
VT Over 10 Wins…
Looking every bit like exceedingly square play
Began looking at VT >10 Wins
(Contrarian impulse)
Yet, upon digging into 2011 Hokies,
VT is a square play that works

VT: w/'NEW' QB, have a Shot at 10 WINS?
Yep…Considering;

VT New QB is not just any ol' QB,
VT QB Soph 6-6 | 246 Logan Thomas
Inevitable Comparisons to CAM NEWTON
Size/Strength/Athleticism

VT: Brings back ALL 4 Top WR's Starters
VT Receivers: SR/SR/SR/JR
VT O-LINE: Returns BOTH OG's & BOTH OT's
VT O-LINE: Multi-Year SR's &
VT Only 'New' OL Starter,
VT Soph C Miller, Played all 1 Gm as rFr
VT: DOESN'T FACE Florida State…
Till (likely) ACC Title Game
VT: Got far better as 2010 Reg Season ended
VT: AVG SCORE, L-4 REGULAR SEASON GMS:
Virginia Tech 35 Opponents 14

VT: #4 NAT'L SPECIAL TEAM 10 Yr Avg
VT: +21 Turnover Ratio (2010)
Must allow history to set the trend
VT: Not Likely to suffer the inexorable
'T-Over Ratio Reversal'
Beamers' Hokies have been Positive Turnovers
A whopping 22 of 25 Yrs

Lastly, VT is remarkably consistent against spread
VT: 58-32 (64.4%) ATS Last 7-Years
* Phil Steele: '8 of 9 Sets of Projections:
VT 12-0 when/if they meet Florida State..
IN FACT, Steele is high on the feasibility of
FLA ST vs. VT 12-0 ACC SHOWDOWN…
For what its' worth

OPPORTUNISTIC
Clemson
Nine Offensive Starters Back
6-7 Tm in 2010,
Though Tigers were 4-4 Conference
TIGERS CLEARLY UNDERACHIEVED - AGAIN

CLEM: 1-4 Close Gm Rec
CLEM: No 2011 Road Games till OCT?
Sounds exceedingly "Manageable"
Maybe....How bout this stretch:
   SEP 17 AUBURN
   SEP 24 FLORIDA STATE
   OCT 01 at Virginia Tech
   OCT 08 BOSTON COLLEGE
   OCT 15 at Maryland
   OCT 22 NORTH CAROLINA
   OCT 29 at Georgia Tech
No Week off breaks in this run either.

Clemson's 2011 OOC Games:
   Defending Nat'l Champion Auburn
   Preseason Sun-Belt Favorite, Troy
   Rival South Carolina on Road

CLEMSON's SCHEDULE:
NOT TOO EASY, UPON DEEPER ASSESSMENT
Clemson losing Starting QB Parker
(struggled thru Injuries & INT's)
Might not be biggest blow to Clemson

TIGERS, despite 4-4 Record
Was a darn stringy D, esp. in CONF
ONLY VT Held Teams to Fewer PPG in Conf
VT 14 PPG Alwd ACC Gms Only
(CLEM 15.8 Pts Alwd, ACC)
Conversely,
Tigers losing 3 of Top 4 Tacklers also looks bad on Paper;

CLEM's 'JUST' 5 D-STARTERS BACK?
Not as damaging w/60% of Clem TACKLES still in Clem
& ALL BUT ONE D-STARTER HAVE GOOD EXPERIENCE
& ALL BUT ONE ARE UPPERCLASSMEN
CLEM OFFENSE ALMOST HAS TO BE IMPROVED
CLEM QB Soph 6-1 | 233 Tajh Boyd
Is the Physical QB that fits Swinney's Scheme well

& THE TIGERS #1 ACC RATED WR CORPS
w/Now Healthy RB Ellington back in the Fold
w/TIGERS' HC SWINNEY ON A VERY HOT SEAT

We have 1 CLEMSON's Home Game Circled:
Sept 17 | WEEK 3
NAT'L CHAMP AUBURN at CLEMSON

Conversely, a Clemson Let-Down Possibility is HUGE

Following Week:
Sept 24 | WEEK 4
FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON
For what it's worth

Maryland
4 TRUE ROAD GMS
No Road Trip till Oct 8 (at GT)
MD: Rebounding from the Friedgen Era
w/NEW HC Edsall

Decent pieces, Bowl Winning 9-4 (& 9-4 ATS) Yr
MD SKIPS VA TECH
Yet must travel to Tallahassee

WITH 3x GMS AWAY FROM COL-PARK TO CLOSE YR
   Nov. 12: N DAME (Fed Ex Field)
   Nov. 19: at Wake Forest
   Nov. 26: at North Carolina State

Wake Forest
Nice Conference Set-Up for Deac's
So many winnable Gms

WF Team off 3-9
YET RETURNS 17 STARTERS
(INCLUDING QB & Good Placekicker)

WF SINCE 2006 BREAKTHROUGH YEAR:
   7 Conference Wins (2006)
      5 Conference Wins (2007)
         4 Conference Wins (2008)
            3 Conference Wins (2009)
               1 Conference Wins (2010)
HC Grobe has reallocated places: List to Seat (Hot)

Miami-Florida
Where to begin…
Schedule-wise (as if this is remotely concerning to Canes)
MIAMI travels to BOTH Blacksburg & Tallahassee in 2011

BIG-TEN SCHEDULES

SEVERAL UNCOMPLICATED SCHEDULES
Wisconsin
Back-Loaded

Kills me to presume Wisky's Schedule as 'Easy'
w/Wk 2, Oregon State in Madison
Yet, Wis 1st 6 w/o true Road Game
It then gets a little dicey
  at Michigan State
  at Ohio State

WISCONSIN gets NEBRASKA in Madison at ideal time
Week after FCS Opponent
Week Before Bye

2ND EASIEST BIG-TEN SCHEDULE?
Illinois
4 ROAD GAMES in 2011
ZERO Roadies till 10/08/2011
ILL Road Gms (2011 Records | Road Gms)
   Indiana (5-7)
   Penn State (7-6)
   Purdue (4-8)
   Minnesota (3-9)

Illini's Ron Zook (51-59 after 6 Seasons)
Been on Hot Seat so long,
May work to his advantage when Ill Wins
ILL: Decent 7-6 Season in 2010
ILL: 4-4 Big Ten

With FRESHMAN Core Group of Skill Guys
ILL really could have been far better,
ILL: 3 close losses in Last 4 Regular Season Gms
ILL Reversed Negative 2009 Conf Yardage discrepancy
& #1 most Uncomplicated, Big Ten Schedule?

Michigan
Like Illinois, Big Blue has just
4 ROAD GAMES (Definite Theme Here)
w/o leaving Ann Arbor till October 8

Michigan new HC Brady Hoke
Couldn't have summoned a better 2011 draw
If he drew it is simply ideal:
BOTH NEB & OHIO ST in Big House
WOLVES SKIP WISCONSIN
Rich-Rod must be pissed


MOST DIFFICULT BIG TEN SCHEDULE?
Northwestern
NW: difficult line up
NW: 4 of First 5 (& 6 of 8) FBS Games on Road
NOT ALL BAD for Cats
NW: Brings back 9 on Offense, including QB
NW: Skips OHIO STATE + WISCONSIN
______

For all these SEC & BIG TEN Schedules w/ 67% Home Games
(8 HOME | 4 ROAD)

Programs & Teams beyond 'Big 6+4'
(SEC|BIG-10|BIG-XII|ACC|PAC-12|BIG EAST & INDY's)
Are frequent (at times, reluctant) 'Sponsors'
Of these windfall, incentive-loaded, mismatch games

Thus: College Football's 'Non-Automatic-Bid"

FBS "MID-MAJOR CONF TMS

   Mountain West Conference (MWC)
   Conference-USA (C-USA)
   Mid-American Conference (MAC)
   Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
   Sun Belt Conference (SUN-BELT)

Have nearly as many converse Home-Road Schedules,
w/DOZENS of 6 to 7 ROAD & 5 Home Game Schedules
WAC Conference will dip into FCS Programs
To stay afloat next Season
After Dominoes began to fall
& Boise State bounced to MWC
BYU raided 5 of 8 desperate WAC cupboards
5 WAC of 8 Conf Programs
Heading to Provo this season
After BYU scrambled to fill 2011 schedule
w/FBS Opponents
BYU: Left Conference Play altogether to play as Indy

NO 'EGRESS' SCHEDULE
Louisiana Tech
SEVEN 2011 ROAD GAMES
w/OOC Roadies at ALL 3 MISS FBS TEAMS
   at Southern Mississippi
   at Mississippi St (Wk after HOU, Wk before HI)
   at Mississippi
In addition,
   LT: vs. HOUSTON, OOC
   LT: Conference Favorite NEVADA on Road
   LT: Consensus #2 CONF Pick, FRESNO on Road

Lastly, LT's daunting 3 Game, 3 Week Road Swing
Hard to miss
   Nov. 05: LT at Fresno State
   Nov. 12: LT at Mississippi
   Nov. 19: LT at Nevada

Another way to put it,
LT: 7 of first 10 LT FBS Gms on Road
w/the 3 HOME GAMES
   vs. Houston
   vs. Hawaii &
   vs. San Jose State?
ANY WAY WE SLICE IT,
LA TECH's 2011 Schedule is outrageously difficult

GRUELING OPENING SEQUENCE
Nevada
How about this 4-Pack of Roadies
To begin Nevada's Post-Kaepernick Era?
   at Oregon
   at San Jose State
   at Texas Tech
   at Boise State
Looks a lot like ol' 'Body-Bag' $CHEDULE$ *

NEVADA'S HOME OPENER?
OCTOBER 8 (vs. 'Rival', Nevada-Las Vegas)
Beyond demanding.

NEV: Just FIVE O-Starters Returning
NEV: 'NEW' QB Sr 6-4 | 222 Lantrip
Clearly not in Kaepernick's class
HOWEVER,
NEV: 21 of 22 Starters are UPPERCLASSMEN

NEV HC Chris Alt (65% Wins)
Eternally under-appreciated 'Lifer' HC (28TH Yr at NEV)
Alt has truly built sustained depth in Reno
In The Boise State Bronco-less WAC,
'Pack will still be closely-controlled organization
LASTLY, NEV schedule, as we'd suspect
Drops off table after Pack's Oct 1 Trip to Boise

NEVADA's 2 REMAINING ROADIES?
vs. 2010 combined 3-13 Conference (3-18) Teams,
at New Mexico State
at Utah State

NEV GAINS: Projected WAC Finishers
   #2. Fresno State
   #3. Hawaii
   #4. Louisiana Tech
In Reno, also

** (70's & 80's: Programs in places like Manhattan, KS, Stockton, CA, Corvallis, OR, Lawrence, KS, San Jose, CA, Evanston, IL, Long Beach, CA, Ames, IA, et al, were compelled to fill OOC Schedules w/at OHST, MICH, UGA TEX, FLA ST, SMU, OU, NEB, ARK, PENN ST, LSU, PITT, BAMA, TENN, ect. Body-Bag Era was a strange time; Pre-85 Scholie Limitations/Post Title-IX, enduring, dilapidated D-1 Programs – especially those in "BIG-6" Conferences, turned to the compulsory Big-Time CFB Programs for the quid-pro-quo; The K-St/Ore St's pull in 3-4 desperately needed shared payday/gate(s) (funneled thru to shoestring budget), & The Ohio St/Texas' Gain a near-guaranteed Homecoming Victory & inflate their Win Total(s), positioned for Bowl Bid(s). Clearly, it was a no-win proposition for the have-nots. Programs such as Ore St – w/29 Consecutive Years of losing Seasons here in Corvallis can speak into this; as 3-4 Body baggers & the odds of a winning year are less-than-zero, w/each losing season, talent & coaching cohesiveness are low & lower. Many Programs in Mid-Major Conferences simply couldn't survive, and subsequently folded (LBSU, Pacific). Digression over.

TOUGHEST START?
Florida Atlantic 
Hard to believe HC Schnellenberger's been in Boca for 13 Years
One might guess, w/established HC often having input
How/why can FAU rationalize this schedule?
Is HC Schnellenburger slipping? *

FAU: STARTS 2011 w/FIVE ROAD GAMES
   at Florida
   at Michigan State
   at Auburn
Till beginning Sun Belt Play
   at La-Lafayette
   at North Texas

OCT 15 Before Owls open their new Crib
(FAU had to ensure completion of New Digs)*
FLA-ATL MUST START NEW QB (0-2 Passing in 2010)
FLA-ATL MUST START ALL NEW RECEIVERS
(Both entirely untested Underclassmen)

However,
Owls return ALL UP CLASS O-LINEMEN
Owls return BOTH Backs in FAU 2-Back Offense
Including ALL-CONF RB 5-11 | 223 Morris

FAU's QB has been groomed as HC Schnellenberger's Guy
FAU QB Jr 6-7 | 215 David Kool
FAU apparently has nice QB Backup
Another Big Guy, not nearly as Athletic Yet better arm
FAU QB Jr 6-6 | 227 is pushing Kool very hard
CAPPING Note worth mentioning
Schnellenberger's 6-0 Career Bowl Numbers aside,
His FLA-ATL Teams have been dreadful ATS.
FAU LAST 2 YEARS: 7-17 ATS
FAU OOC LAST 5 YEARS: 12-23 ATS
FAU HOME FAV LAST 2 YEARS: 0-6 ATS
FAU HOME FAV LAST 5 YEARS: 3-12 ATS
Consistent Fade Money here…FWIW

Western Kentucky 
Hilltopers, somehow in just 4TH Yr of FBS Play
Managed 2011 schedule w/0 True Rd Gms til 10/6
CIRCLED GAME (9 DAYS AWAY)
SEPT 1: W KENTUCKY vs. KENTUCKY
Opening Night in Nashville
(2 Ky Teams Playing each other Out-of-State)

Louisiana-Monroe
A Phil Steele SURPRISE 2011 TEAM"
FIRST 3 FBS GMS FOR WARHAWKS:
   at Florida State
   at TCU
   at Alabama
Will we EVER find a steeper climb for ANY TEAM?

L-Monroe: Solid Core is all back from 5-7 Team
INCLUDING QB (Browning, All-Conf as FRESHMAN)
Entire OL Returns
L-MON: SIX-SR's for #2 Sun Belt 2010 Defense

Central Michigan 
7 of first 9 FBS Gms on Road

San Jose State
ROAD GMS
   at UCLA
   at Stanford
   at Brigham Young

TOUGH ROAD'S
Idaho
OOC Road Games
   at Texas A&M
   at Virginia
   at Brigham Young

ROUGH
Marshall
='HARSH-ALL'?
HERD HAS SEVEN ROAD GMS
(4 of first 6 on Road)

MSHL: at Rival WVU out of the shoot
MSHL: HOME GAME vs. VA TECH
Followed by trip to LOUISVILLE

MSHL OOC GMS:
at WVU, at LOU'VL, vs. OHIO vs. VA TECH
Herd also travel
To HOU & TULSA in Conf Play

MARSHALL 2011:
New QB
Patchwork OL
7 Underclassmen on Depth Charts?
Might be fortunate to see a repeat of 5-7 (2010)
-----    
CFB FUTURES PLAYS

½ UNIT | BCS NAT'L CHAMPS
OREGON 14 to 1 (Bodog)

½ UNIT | PAC-12 CHAMPS
OREGON +240 (Sportsbook.com)

½ UNIT | ACC CHAMPS
VA TECH +180 (Sportbet)

FUTURES TOTAL WINS

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
VA TECH | OVER 10 (-130 | Bkmkr)

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
WISCONSIN | OVER 9 (-175 | BetUS)
¼ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
WISCONSIN | OVER 9½ (EVEN | Bkmkr)

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
SO CAL | OVER 7½ (-130 | BetUS)

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
TEXAS TECH | UNDER 7 (-105 | BetUS)

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
CLEMSON | OVER 7 (-120 | BetUS)

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
OREGON ST | OVER 6½ (EVEN | Bkmkr)

½ UNIT | TOTAL WINS
WAZZU | UNDER 4½ (+125 | BetUS)