2017 NCAA TOURNEY NOTES
Just dropping by to throw in some tourney notes, fwiw.
Feel free to add or let us know if/who and what might be added or amended.
HOT TEAMS
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
Oddly not much buzz about UK doing their ‘thing’
Cats ripping off 11x (and counting), might be positioned well to get to Glendale.
2 DUKE (27-8) Ken Pom 12
Despite the Devils 1-3 regular season finish
4 wins in 4 days to take ACC Title has Duke on the hot list
Duke 6-06 | 202 So Luke Kennard scores 20 PPG (#5 NCAA Scorer).
5 IOWA STATE (23-10) Ken Pom 17
ISU is 9-1 since their benchmark OT victory in Lawrence, Kansas
Including their 3 game run to the Big 12 Tourney title
Four senior starters that all hit 3’s (264 combined made 3’s at 40.5% avg) and #2 NCAA Turnover Margin
7 MICHIGAN (24-11) Ken Pom 21
Not only did UM run 4 games in 4 days to take Big Ten tourney
The experienced Wolverines won 10 of their last 12 overall to get off the mat and grab their bid
5 MINNESOTA (24-9) Ken Pom 33
Just not hearing enough about this astonishing 8-23 to 24-9 Minnesota U-turn
Gophs mowed over 8 of their last 9 regular season conference opponents
Minnesota will clearly miss Northern Illinois/Milwaukee transfer, MINN 6-04 Sr Akeem Springs (especially his deep shooting)
Nevertheless, Minnesota’s defensive efficiency numbers are hard to fathom or ignore
Minnesota was #1 in the Big Ten in eFG Defense (45.1% allowed)
11 RHODE ISLAND (24-9) Ken Pom 37
Not only did Rams win A-10 Tourney, they’ve won 8 in a row, and 12 of 14.
Caution with URI: Problematic Free Throw shooting (poor and got worse during conference season: 63.7% Conf)
Two GOOD Experienced wings, URI 6-7 | 235 Sr MRTN 14 PPG | 7 RPG | 2.5 BLK and URI 6-05 | 200 Jr EC Mathews 14.5 PPG | 4 RPG)
10 WICHITA STATE (30-4) Ken Pom 8
(see ‘teams no one wants to play’ below)
15 Wins in a row
9 VANDERBILT (19-15) Ken Pom 34
Brice Drew’s Dores earned their way into the dance with their 7-2 finish
8 ARKANSAS (25-9) Ken Pom 38
Hogs 8-2 finish and SEC Final appearance cemented Arkansas’ tourney status
11 PROVIDENCE (20-12) Ken Pom 56
Friars survived a damaging Big East Tourney opening round loss to Creighton
Providence reached 20 wins and finished regular season 6-0 (including wins vs Butler, Xavier, Marquette and at Creighton), which landed the Friars back in the dance
SLUMPING TEAMS
11 XAVIER (21-13) Ken Pom 40
Regular season finale win vs DePaul saved X men from closing the regular season on a 0-7 free-fall
Xavier rallied to reach Big East semifinal, yet Muskies continue to miss their injured floor general, XAV 6-06 | 187 So Ed Sumner
Xavier is a superb effort and hustle team
X men are also a relentless rebounding group (Xavier’s % offensive rebound ‘differential’ is +10.2%)
XAV 6-06 | 200 Jr Trevon Bluette (18 PPG | 5 RPG) and XAV 6-05 | 206 Jr Macura (14.7 PPG | 4 RPG)
In other words, Musketeers really do not get pushed around
6 CREIGHTON (25-9) Ken Pom 27
Jays were riding high at 18-1 (5-1 Conference) on January 21
CREI 5-10 | 176 Sr Maurice Watson was injured and lost for the season
Watson Creighton’s quarterback and team leader (#1 NCAA assist rate at 47.7%)
Creighton lost 6 of their next 10 games following Watson’s departure
Watson became a bigger distraction when he was suspended and charged with sexual misconduct in mid-February.
Jays play double-quick and still rank #3 NCAA eFG (58%)
CREI 6-03 | 210 Jr Marcus Foster has been a potent late season scorer
Foster has averaged 20 PPG in Creighton’s last nine
11 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (24-9) Ken Pom 61
Trojans rode the bubble after a stop & go 3-5 finish to year
SC was 10-9 after starting their season 14-0
Team Defense was a growing challenge for SC in Conference play
SC allowed opponents 1.25 PPP during their last 8 games.
6 MARYLAND (24-8) Ken Pom 45
On Feb 1, Maryland was 8-1 Conference (20-2 overall)
The youthful Terps proceeded to stagger to a 4-6 season finish
MD usually start 3 freshman, and are consequently turnover prone.
MD 6-03 | 185 Jr Melo Trimble carries the biggest load for MD (17 PPG | 3.5 APG | 3.5 RPG)
Even after the injury to UM 7-01 | 250 Jr Celovsky, Maryland is still rather deep with good size
Terps two 6-07 freshmen (Huerter & Jackson) shoot 3's well (104-260 at 40% combined)
34% of Maryland FGA come from behind the arch
7 SOUTH CAROLINA (22-10) Ken Pom 31 (see ‘steamrollers’ below)
TEAM COOLING OFF
10 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-10) Ken Pom 24
Entering March on a scorching 10-1 Conference run, OSU has dropped 3x
(In fairness, those games came at Iowa State, vs Kansas and again vs Iowa State in the Big 12 Tourney)
OSU still finished the year with NCAA #1 Offensive Efficiency (1.248 PPP)
EXPERIENCED TEAMS
8 WISCONSIN (25-9) Ken Pom 23
UW starts 4 cagey senior starters (Hayes, Koenig, Brown, Showalter) along with
Ken Pomeroy’s 6th best 2016-17 NCAA player, UW 6-10 | 232 So Ethan Happ
7 DAYTON (24-7) Ken Pom 36
4 senior starters (Cook, Pollard, Smith, Davis)
HC Archie Miller led Flyers to Elite 8 and Sweet 16 in last 4 seasons
5 IOWA STATE (23-10) Ken Pom 17
Top 5 contributors are seniors
7 SAINT MARY’S (28-4) Ken Pom 14
All 5 Gaels starters are upperclassmen
Including Ken Pomeroy’s 2nd best 2016-17 NCAA player, 6-11 | 255 Jr Jock Landale
13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7) Ken Pom 64
Bucs start 4 seniors, 1 junior
INEXPERIENCED TEAMS
6 MARYLAND (24-8) Ken Pom 45
Terps usually start 3 freshman, and have put a load on their star player,
MD 6-03 | 185 Jr Melo Trimble (17 PPG | 3.5 A | 3.5 R)
11 WAKE FOREST (19-13) Ken Pom 30
Danny Manning’s Deacs may be youthful, yet Wake packs a lot of offensive punch
WF is led by Ken Pomeroy’s #10 ranked player-of-the-year, John Collins
Wake’s super sophs average some eye-opening numbers
WF 6-10 | 235 So John Collins (19 PPG | 10 RPG)
WF 6-03 | 190 So Crawford (16 PPG | 5.4 APG)
Talent clearly overrides experience with these one-and-done heavy teams, also
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
Names aside, UK starts 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore
2 ARIZONA (30-4) Ken Pom 20
UA starts 3 freshmen
<SIZE TEAMS
3 FLORIDA STATE (25-8) Ken Pom 19
Listed as the ‘tallest team’ (average height) in the tourney
FSU 6-04 | 208 Jr Xavier Rathan-Mayes
FSU 6-05 | 215 Fr Trent Forrest
FSU 6-06 | 204 So Terance Mann
FSU 6-07 | 221 So Dwayne Bacon (17 PPG)
FSU 6-10 | 210 Fr Jonathan Isaac
FSU is big, strong team, yet their metric is clearly skewed sky-high with bench players:
FSU 7-01 | 304 Sr Michael Ojo (plays 12 min/game)
FSU 7-04 | 233 So Christ Koumadje (plays 10 min/game)
What jumps out with Noles is their youth
6 of FSU’s 7 top contributors are underclassmen
Florida State plays quick, yet don’t shoot many 3s
FSU was 16-1 (4-0), yet finished the year 7-6 in their last 13 games
Noles are below average free throw shooters (66.7% in conference)
1 GONZAGA (32-1) Ken Pom 1
Formidable Zags twin tower front court
GU 7-01 | 300 So Karnowski
GU 7-00 | 230 Fr Collins
2 ARIZONA (30-4) Ken Pom 20
Cats also boast a twin tower front court
AZ 7-00 | 245 Jr Dustan Ristic
AZ 7-00 | 230 Fr Lauri Markkanen (1st Team All-Conference)
3 UCLA (29-4) Ken Pom 18
The Bruins bring a lot of size along with their bombastic offense
UCLA 6-03 | 185 Sr Bryce Alford
UCLA 6-05 | 195 Sr Isaac Hamilton
UCLA 6-06 | 190 Fr Lonzo Ball
UCLA 6-10 | 225 Fr TJ Leaf
UCLA 7-00 | 245 Jr Thomas Welsh
BENCH
UCLA 6-01 | 185 So Aaron Holiday
UCLA 6-10 | 250 Fr Ike Anigbogu
UCLA 6-11 | 215 Jr Gyorgy Goloman
2 LOUISVILLE (24-8) Ken Pom 6
Not much on-court buzz surrounding Pitino’s 2016-17 Cards
UL Jr Johnson and Sr Mathiang are a fearsome defensive force in the paint
UL brings raw size and depth off the bench, also
Cards are the NCAA’s 6th best defensive team (UL allows 0.904 PPP)
Louisville played the #4 toughest NCAA schedule
Moreover, Snider and Mitchell are probably be one of the most underrated two-way guard tandem going right now (SEE: Siva / Smith)
UL 6-02 | 175 Jr Quentin Snider
UL 6-03 | 195 So Donovan Mitchell
UL 6-07 | 200 So Deng Adel
UL 6-09 | 230 Jr Jaylen Johnson
UL 6-10 | 220 Sr Mangok Mathiang
BENCH
UL 6-10 | 215 So Ray Spalding
UL 7-00 | 215 Jr Anas Mahmoud
>SIZE TEAMS
12 NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON (29-5) Ken Pom 60
Seahawks have made up for their lack of size with painstakingly judicious play
UNCW has the lowest NCAA turnover rate (UNCW turns the ball over just 13.9% of their possessions)
3-POINT BOMBER TEAMS
5 NOTRE DAME (25-9) Ken Pom 25
Domers were tops in the ACC in % of points from deep (36.3%)
10 MARQUETTE (19-12) Ken Pom 28
Marquette is an extraordinary 3 point shooting team: 38% of MU points come from behind the arch
MU not only leads NCAA MU in 3% (43%) they also make the most 3’s per game (10.5)
MU leading scorer is 5-11 freshman, Markus Howard (13 PPG)
Howard has cashed 76 threes at a remarkable 55% clip
9 VANDERBILT (19-15) Ken Pom 34
The Dores are #2 NCAA tourney team in % of points from deep (41.7%)
(Princeton is #1 at 41.9%)
14 IONA (22-12) Ken Pom 118
Although Gaels cooled off from deep during their 3-4 February,
Iona still made 42.2% of their threes in Conference play and average 10 made 3’s per game overall
7 MICHIGAN (24-11) Ken Pom 21
As usual, the 3-point shot is the essential scoring method for the scrupulous Wolverine attack.
UM gained the highest % of their team points from deep in the Big Ten (38%)
45% of Michigan’s field goal attempts are 3’s (#4 among NCAA tourney teams)
12 NEVADA (28-6) Ken Pom 55
Missouri State Transfer, NEV 6-03 |200 Sr Marcus Marshall is #1 NCAA in 3’s made this season
(Marshall also scores 19.8 PPG)
MEATGRINDER TEAMS
5 VIRGINIA (22-10) Ken Pom 7
UVa #1 NCAA defensive efficiency (0.87 PPP allowed)
UVa #1 NCAA scoring defense (55.6 PPG allowed)
UVa plays slowest NCAA pace (58.6 possessions/game)
UVa has holds 18 Op under 55 Pts | Held NC to 43 Pts | 55.3 PPGA
Virginia still struggles to score
UVa 6-02 | 200 Sr London Perrantes is the only Wahoo player averaging double-figures
UVa also shoots 3rd fewest free throw attempts vs field goal attempts (25.7%)
Quintessential Bennett-ball
8 WISCONSIN (25-9) Ken Pom 23
Speaking of Bennett-ball, a lot of the residue remains from Bennett/Ryan pressure ball strategy of the past two+ decades of Wisky basketball (1995-2015, three Final Four approaches, including 2015 NCAA runner-up)
Greg Gard’s Badgers are methodical as ever (63.1 possessions/game)
UW is also #8 most efficient defense in the NCAA (#7 among tourney teams)
STEAMROLLER TEAMS
6 SMU (30-4) Ken Pom 11
Ponies are #2 NCAA Rebound Margin (+10.5/gm) and #3 NCAA in PPG Allowed.
SMU’s robust starters are all 6-06 and up, Ojeleye, Brown Milton and Moore are adept at forcing opponents into their methodical pace.
7 SAINT MARY’S (28-4) Ken Pom 14
‘Death-by-paper-cuts’ team.
Gaels are led by Ken Pomeroy’s 2nd best 2016-17 NCAA player, SMC 6-11 | 255 Jr Jock Landele,
SMC is the NCAA 2nd most methodical team, and allows opponents just 56 PPG
7 SOUTH CAROLINA (22-10) Ken Pom 31
South Carolina brings NCAA’s 3rd most efficient defense to the tourney (0.885 PPP allowed)
USC HC Frank Martin’s Gamecocks are increasingly challenged offensively (SEC #11 offensive efficiency)
South Carolina forces a lot of turnovers
Gamecocks 4 OT home loss to Alabama seemed to trigger a USC slide
USC is on a 3-6 slide, after standing tall at 19-4 (9-1 SEC) on February 6.
USC 6-05 | 212 Sr Sindarius Thornwell is prodigious player for South Carolina (21 PPG)
Thornwell often plays big when it counts (34 points at UK, 44 points vs Bama, both in key conference games)
4 PURDUE (25-7) Ken Pom 15
Purdue isn’t a snail-paced team, their big and balanced squad just beats teams down with superb inside out, pass and cut execution.
Boilers are #3 NCAA tourney in assists (18.1/game) and #3 NCAA tourney from deep (40.6%)
PU brings in Ken Pomeroy’s #4 NCAA player-of the-year candidate, PUR 6-09 | 250 So Caleb Swanigan
Swanigan is a double-double machine (18.6 PPG | 12.5 RPG), attracts and commands attention in the paint
The Boilers five (+) capable deep shooters get abundant catch and shoot deep looks
Purdue is as solid as they come in terms of offense vs defense efficiency differential
OPEN-THROTTLE TEAMS
3 UCLA (29-4) Ken Pom 18
UCLA is dazzling on offense, and play at the quickest pace among tourney teams
(UCLA 73 possessions/game)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA PPG (90.4)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA eFG (59.5%)
UCLA ranks #1 NCAA assist to turnover ratio (1.86)
UCLA 6-06 | 190 Fr Lonzo Ball is #1 NCAA in assists (7.7/game)
UCLA 6-03 | 185 Sr Bryce Alford is #2 among NCAA Tourney players with 107 made 3’s
Bruins have six double digit scorers (Leaf, Alford, Ball, Hamilton, Holiday, Welsh)
10 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-12) Ken Pom 24
13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7) Ken Pom 64
Bucs savvy, highly experienced group plays very quick
ETSU starts 4 seniors and 1 junior 1 JR
Bucs also bring in a legitimate scorer, ETSU 6-03 | 195 Sr TJ Cromer (19.1 PPG)
2 KENTUCKY (29-5) Ken Pom 4
#2 fastest pace among NCAA tourney teams (72.5 possessions/game), right behind UCLA
13 WINTHROP (26-6) Ken Pom 112
The undersized, guard-rich Eagles play a wide-open, spread-court, quick-tempo,
3-point-bomber offense
Winthrop’s matchup defense decelerates teams very well
Eagles opponents average +2.2 seconds per possession
6 CREIGHTON (25-9) Ken Pom 27
Bluejays are double-quick on offense;
Creighton averages just 14.9 seconds per offensive possession (#2 NCAA tourney)
UNDER-THE-RADAR TEAMS
9 SETON HALL (21-11) Ken Pom 53
Slower, paint-heavy team without many profile wins, yet very tough rebounders
Hall’s experienced junior trio could be a big problem for teams that don’t crack glass
SH 6-03 | 195 Jr Carrington (17 PPG)
SH 6-06 | 215 Jr Desi Rodriguez (15.6 PPG)
SH 6-10 | 240 Jr Angel Delgado (16 PPG | 13 RPG)
4 PURDUE (25-7) Ken Pom 15 (see above)
6 SMU (30-4) Ken Pom 11 (see above)
4 BUTLER (23-8) Ken Pom 26
BU is slower moving, yet deep, balanced, battle-tested and experienced team
Butler has good turnover ratio
Since coming off Bulldog bench,
1st team Big East player, Butler’s 6-07 | 222 Kelan Martin (16 PPG | 6 RPG)
Butler averaged 89 PPG in their February conference games
Butler had more than a handful of marquee, high-profile wins
(2-0 vs Villanova, in conference)
TEAMS NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY
4 WEST VIRGINIA (26-8) Ken Pom 5
Think Mounties personify HC Huggins Iron-Jawed gamesmanship?
WVU is #1 NCAA in turnovers forced (20.44/game)
More importantly, WVU is #1 NCAA turnover margin (>8.2/game)
The next closest team (UNC-Asheville) is distant second at >5.1 turnovers game.
WVU is a punishing team to play and prepare.
10 WICHITA STATE (30-4) Ken Pom 8
30-4 WSU rides into tourney on a 15 game win streak.
Notwithstanding WSU’s stature in a 1-bid MVC, The Shockers are #2 NCAA PPG margin (19.6), and #4 NCAA Rebounding margin (+8.9/) WSU #5 NCAA FGD% (38.1)
HC Gregg Marshall’s WSU team lacks a big-time scorer (WSU So 6-8 So McDuffie 12 PPG | 6-5 Fr Shamet 11 PPG) yet they are deep and play quintessential, hard-hitting identifiable Shocker defense
Ken Pomeroy’s #8 ranked Wichita State Shockers must be somewhat slighted and determined to refute their double-digit seed
MOST VULNERABLE HIGH SEED?
1 KANSAS (28-4) Ken Pom 10
Even before Ken Pomeroy’s #8 player-of the-year candidate KU Fr Josh Jackson’s tweaked his ankle in a season-closing win vs TCU, and prior to KU’s early exit from the Big 12 tourney, KU might be the most vulnerable of the four top seeded NCAA teams.
KU brings their usual balanced scoring attack, yet the Jayhawks clearly lack their characteristic depth.
Moreover, KU’s overall 66.5% FT% is another problematic metric (Jackson 56%).
PICK TO WIN THE 2017 NCAA TITLE
1 NORTH CAROLINA (27-7) Ken Pom 3
Not only the big chip on Heels’ collective shoulders since last season’s gut-bomb,
The Heels and their average +13 rebounding margin are consistently being overlooked in their own region.
UNC could have the clearest Elite 8 path of all #1 seed
UNC has to like the prospects of facing a similar high-paced team, if either UCLA or UK reach the Elite 8
The Heels have stammered a lot more vs lumbering, slow-movers and half-court teams
UNC was held in the 60’s in four of their 6 losses
North Carolina brings 5 upper-class starters to the dance, and just looks as undervalued as any #1 seed in recent memory
Especially from a team that lost last year’s national title at the buzzer
¼ UNIT
NATIONAL TITLE WINNER
1 NORTH CAROLINA 6 to 1
All the best, guys
W-O-W
