2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL | WEEK 5: Nowhere to go but...

Simple look at FBS Teams thru Week 4 

ATS UNBEATENS (FBS Games ONLY)

4-0 ATS (1 TEAM)

Ball State (3-1 Overall)

3-0 ATS (7 TEAMS)

Northwestern (4-0 Overall)
San Jose State (3-1 Overall)
Western Kentucky (3-1 Overall)
Utah State (3-1 Overall)
Toledo (3-1 Overall)
Fresno State (2-2 Overall)
Louisiana-Monroe (1-2 Overall)

2-0 ATS (6* TEAMS)

Texas Tech (3-0 Overall)
Iowa State (3-0 Overall)
Oregon State (2-0 Overall)
Purdue (2-1 Overall)
Middle Tennessee State (2-1 Overall)
AzSt (arguable) 2-0-1 ATS, at Mizzou

1-0 ATS (2 TEAMS)

Cincinnati (2-0 Overall)
Texas-San Antonio (4-0 Overall, yet 3 Wins Over FCS Teams)

UNDEFEATED TEAMS (27 Total)

17 TEAMS at 4-0

Northwestern (3-0 ATS)
South Carolina (3-1 ATS)
Notre Dame (3-1 ATS)
Florida (3-1 ATS)
Ohio (2-1 ATS)
Minnesota (2-1 ATS)
Kansas State (2-1 ATS)
Rutgers (2-1 ATS)
Louisville (2-1 ATS)
Alabama (2-2 ATS)
LSU (2-2 ATS)
Georgia (2-2 ATS)
Florida State (1-1 ATS)
Oregon (1-2 ATS)
Mississippi State (1-2 ATS)
Ohio State (1-3 ATS)
Texas-San Antonio (4-0 Ov'l, yet 3 Wins came vs. FCS Teams)

8 TEAMS at 3-0

Iowa State (2-0 ATS) 
Texas Tech (2-0 ATS)
Louisiana Tech (2-1 ATS)
Stanford (2-1 ATS)
Texas (2-1 ATS)
West Virginia (1-1 ATS)
TCU (1-1 ATS)
Baylor (1-1 ATS)

2 TEAMS at 2-0

Oregon State (2-0 ATS) 
Cincinnati (1-0 ATS)

ATS WINLESS TEAMS (FBS Games ONLY)

0-3 ATS (9 TEAMS)

Houston (0-3 Overall)
Southern Mississippi (0-3 Overall)
Arkansas (1-3 Overall, only win vs FCS Team)
Virginia (2-2 Overall)
Washington State (2-2 Overall)
Iowa (2-2 Overall)
Miami-Ohio (2-2 Overall)
Wisconsin (3-1 Overall)
North Carolina State (3-1 Overall)

0-2 ATS (5* TEAMS)

SMU (1-2 Overall)
Boston College (1-2 Overall)
Temple (1-2 Overall)
Oklahoma (2-1 Overall)
Mizzou (arguably) 0-2-1 ATS, vs. AzSt* (2-2 Overall)

WINLESS TEAMS* (12 Tms w/o FBS WIN)

4 TEAMS at 0-4

Eastern Michigan (1-3 ATS)
Massachusetts (1-3 ATS)
Idaho (1-2 ATS)
Memphis (1-2 ATS)

6 TEAMS at 0-3

Southern Mississippi (0-3 ATS)
Houston (0-3 ATS) 
Alabama-Birmingham (1-2 ATS)
Tulane (1-2 ATS)
Army (1-2 ATS)
Syracuse (1-2 ATS | Orange have 1 Win v FCS)
Buffalo (technically 0-2; 1 Win is v FCS)

OVERVALUED?

Getting into some analysis of how we might profit from these teams,
It looks like some of the UNBEATEN Teams could really be overvalued

Likely Candidates?

RUTGERS 
BAYLOR
OHIO
KANSAS STATE
TEXAS

Many teams on these lists 
(Overachievers & Underperformers)
Could comprise different type of lists, I.E.,

NOWHERE TO GO BUT....DOWN?

Oregon State

Don't enjoy making this presumption....
Yet, Beavers have not trailed 
Beavers have also not  faced any real adverse situation, 
(Only 2 Games played)

Rutgers

Back up into one of better Rushing Teams in Big East
AFTER 3x Years of bringing up the rear
Teams are loading up vs. Rutgers RB Soph Jamison 
Forcing Knights to take to the Air

Probably a matter of time before Rutgers is exposedt

NOWHERE TO GO BUT....UP?

Oklahoma

Sooners Defense? 
Is just too talented & really HAS to get better

OU #106 in Tackles for Loss (FBS)?
OU TIED FOR LAST, FBS in Sacks/Gm? (0.33)

MANY TEAMS to add to these lists 
We'll do this as the week progresses

All the best, guys


W-O-W

2012 CFB HIGHFLYERS & DISAPPOINTMENTS

2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Preparing for Week 4
Primitive look at Extremes thru 3 Wks
May give indication of Over/Under Valued Teams (ATS)

ATS HIGHFLYERS
(Teams averaging OVER TD ‘Cover’)

1.  L-MON 1-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +22 Pts
2.  FRES 2-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +21 Pts
3.  CINCY 2-0 (1-0 ATS) Covered only FBS v Pitt +19½ Pts
4.  AZST 2-1 (1-1 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +19.2 Pts
5.  TXTCH 3-0 (2-0 ATS) AVG MARGIN +18.2 Pts
6.  ARIZ 3-0 (2-0 ATS) AVG MARGIN +16 Pts
7.  PURD 2-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +15.7 Pts
8.  TXAM 1-1 (1-1 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +15½ Pts
9.  BAMA 3-0 (3-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +14.3 Pts
10. SJSU 2-1 (2-0 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN +14.3 Pts

ATS DISAPPOINTMENTS
(Teams averaging OVER TD ‘Cover’)

124. ARK 1-2 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -32½ Pts
123. COLO 0-3 (0-2 ATS) ATS MARGIN -25 Pts
122. HOU 0-3 (0-3 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -23 Pts
122. NAVY 0-2 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -23 Pts
120. VTCH 2-1 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -16.7 Pts
119. WISC 2-1 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -16.2 Pts
118. CMCH 1-1 (0-1 ATS) Failed Cover only FBS v MchSt -16 Pts
117. MASS 0-3 (0-3 AVG) ATS MARGIN -15½ Pts
116. EMCH 0-3 (0-2 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -14 Pts
115. ARMY 0-2 (1-1 ATS) AVG ATS MARGIN -14 Pts

+ PPG MARGIN

1.  FLAST +52 (First FBS Gm Sat 52-0 over WF)
2.  TXTCH +41½
3.  BAMA +38
3.  LSU +38
5.  WVA +35
5.  BAYL +35
7.  TEX +33.3
8.  SCAR +28.3
9.  K-ST +26½
10. UGA +26.3

-PPG MARGIN

124. MASS -42
123. SMU -40
122. NMEX -40
121. HI -39
120. MIA-O -36½
119. CMCH -34
118. NAVY -33½
117. KENT -33
116. COLO -30
115. IDA -28½
114. ARK -27½

FYI


W-O-W