THURSDAY PAC-10 NOTES

WEEK-9: THURSDAY RECAP OF KEY CONFERENCE GAME:

Thursday Night's Willamette Valley Games were remarkably similar. 
Both contests realized mid-game momentum shifts that produced incontrovertible underdog wins.

Surprising outcome from Eugene is especially intriguing, as the Cal Win perpetuates a glorious 5/6/7th Place Conference Hodgepodge, with the Bears, Ducks & Cougs bunched at 8 Losses. 

CALIFORNIA 81
OREGON 71 

Homestanding Ducks played host to Cal Bears in 6th Game in 'The Matt'.  Oregon entered Game on improbable 6-2 Run (7-1 ATS).  Ducks particularly well-acclimated to thier sparkling new Matthew Knight Arena, were 4-1 in The Matt (S-U & ATS).  Cal off an invigorating 76-72 OT Home Win, are the 2010-2011 Poster-Child for the 3-Year PAC-10 'Talent Drain' cycle.  Bears, together with SC  & ASU, are statistically among the thinnest 10 Division-I Teams.  Bears average just 16 Bench minutes per PAC-10 contest, lowest in PAC-10.

On Thursday night in Eugene, The Ducks zoomed out to a 16-Point early lead (40-24), 16-Minutes into Game.  J Catron was active participant in Oregon's push, & The Ducks, despite Attempting Zero FT's in First Half, limited Cal's League-Leading FT Attempts numbers to just 3 in 1st.  

Bears trimmed a few points off Ducks Lead to Trail, 45-34 at Half.

The 2nd Half of this Bears-Ducks Game illustrated experience & savvy of a Multi-Decade Conference Coach & Staff vs the upstart. 

California's HC Mike Montgomery may be putting forth his most admirable season of work in this, his 21st Year as a PAC-10 Head Coach; 18 at Stanford & now 3 at California. 


SENSATIONAL STAT OF-THE-DAY:
CAL HEAD COACH MIKE MONTGOMERY
STREAK OF DOUBLE-DIGIT CONFERENCE WINS: 13 (AND COUNTING)

Oregon's momentum train slowed in 2nd, largely due to multi-game, hot-shooting Jay-R Strowbridge's repeat missed threes (Strowbridge: 0-5 Threes Second Half), & Cal's latest version of the "Bear-Big-3, Minus-1", Gutierrez, Crabbe, Smith are giving Cal exceptional production & tireless activity at both ends.

CAL'S 'BIG-3' vs ORE COMBINED: 60 PTS 
   19-32 FG (59.3%)
   10-19 DEEP (52.6%)
   15-17 FT (88.2%)

CAL 6-3 | 203 Jr GUTIERREZ:
  23 PTS (8-13 FG | 2-6 DEEP | A|T-Over Ratio: 5-3)
CAL 5-11 | 192 Soph SMITH:
  18 PTS (5-6 FG | 4-5 DEEP)
CAL 6-4 | 188 Fr CRABBE:
  19 PTS (6-13 FG | 4-8 DEEP)

It should be Noted, that Cal's Frontcourt is playing consistent
KAMP & SANDERS-FRISON COMBINED 
   15 PTS (6-12 FG) 11 REB  

2nd Half FG Shooting: 
  Cal 62.5% 
  Ore 42%

In the end, Bears aggressive Inside-Out Play resulted big FT Edge:
  FT's Attempted:  CAL +12
  FT's Made: CAL +11

Bears Opened 2nd Half on 21-9 Run to pull ahead at 11:37 Mark

OREGON HAD EPIC SCORING DROUGHT 
   6 Minutes, 17 Seconds, w/Three Points 
  13:04 to 6:43 of Second Half
ORE Tenodre Williams Three at 10:11 Mark was Ducks only scoring

Cal, despite 16 Bench Minutes, appears to be back on that tenuous tightrope
With a healthy, versatile Freshman Allen Crabbe on the floor

JUXTAPOSITION Of 8-LOSS TEAMS IN PAC-10 (3)
As we indicated, Cal, Oregon & Wazzu must scratch & claw to get OUT of the Dreaded 7-Seed.  Obviously, Seeds #7 thru #10 Face-Off on Wednesday, March 9, 2011 at Staples Center in the avoid-at-all-costs, 'Play-In' Games.'  It looked like Oregon had a narrow inside track at hanging onto #6 Spot, yet their one-game, loss-column edge is a distant memory, & it genuinely looks like an toss-up between these 3 Teams, after SC upset Arizona to move above the fray, & Stanford solidified their 8th Place Footing.

POST-SEASON STATUS

Really appears The PAC-10 will have precisely three teams in the NCAA Tourney.  Projections vary, yet currently look like this:

NCAA: ARIZONA #5 SEED
Still projected as Conference Champions, Cats' are expected to stay in the West Region
More than one source predicts 12-Seed, College of Charleston Cougars (22-8) of the Southern Conference as Arizona's 1st Round opponent, with 4-Seed Syracuse the potential 2nd Round opponent

NCAA: UCLA #9 SEED
Bruins are shown to head East, matched against 8-Seed, Georgia Bulldogs (18-9), of the SEC.  Dawgs are on small slide (2-5  ATS | 4-5 Overall Runs), Intriguing potential rematch vs UCLA HC Ben Howland's former employer, Top-Seeded Pittsburgh.

NCAA: WASHINGTON #10 SEED
Huskies listed in Southwest by most early predictions, facing 7-Seed, Xavier (21-6) of the Atlantic 10.  This would be an exceedingly difficult matchup Dawgs, as Muskies are one of this years' top overachievers.  Muskies are running away w/A-10 (12-1), have Won 6-in-a-Row, and 13 of 14 Overall.  Xavier ranks #1 of the 14 Atlantic 10 Teams in 5 of 8 key offensive efficiency categories.  Washington would be well served to win-out to avoid this predicament, especially since this matchup, if UW should somehow beat X....matches the '7-10' winner vs 2-Seed, Duke.

So much to play out before NIT, CBI & CIT Tourneys start sorting thru the ashes for their opponents, yet the NIT Projections include:

NIT: CALIFORNIA #4 SEED
NIT: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA #6 SEED

NIT Tournament is facilitated by NCAA since 2006, after NCAA Purchased the Tournament in 2005.  NIT Postseason Tournament is 'Seeded' 1-8 by Committee, similar to NCAA Tourney.  Top-Seed in each Bracketed Game host Home Games during First 3-Rounds of Tournament, w/NIT Final Four Played at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Monday & Wednesday, March 29 & 31.