FINALLY .... *4* | RAMS ~ BULLDOGS ~ WILDCATS ~ HUSKIES |

2011 NCAA FINAL FOUR
Saturday, April 2, 2011 | 6:09 PM, EDT | TV-CBS
Reliant Stadium | Houston, Texas

8   BUTLER BULLDOGS 27-9 | 12-6 Conf (20-14 ATS)
11 VA COMMONWEALTH RAMS 28-11 | 15-6 Cf (18-20 ATS)

Game #1

Broken this down every way possible this week
Several conclusions to draw from

1. COACHING

Butler's Brad Stevens vs VCU's Shaka Smart
Tough call here, yet Despite VCU's astounding run,
(& yes, VCU Won CBI Last Season....yawn)

BUTLER'S 2 YEAR STORY SURPASSES VCU's 5-GAME RUN

The resourcefulness of Butler's HC Brad Stevens & Staff
Engineering BTB Final Four appearances,
despite losing #1 2009-2010 Contributor, 6-0 Gordan Hayward to Graduation & Opponents' axiomatic 'Butler-Upset-Alert' always on 'HIGH'

This Butler Team has now nearly surpassed an improbable 2009-2010 Final Four Run.

The Mid-Major Bulldogs' 10-1 Two-Year NCAA Tournament Record speaks volumes about Butler's grit, execution & coaching proficiency....& gives Butler an unqualified Edge in Houston.

Often Overlooked:
Butler WON 3rd Consecutive Horizon Title
at 'The Cell' in MILWAUKEE, vs #1 SEED Panthers, 59-44.

NCAA did not extend any at-large bids to Horizon; thus in hindsight, Butler was required to Win Conference Tourney to get an invite to defend NCAA Runner-Up distinction.

Many on-court aspects give Butler the edge vs VCU

2.  PG SPOT

BUTLER's 6-3 | 221 Jr MACK
     vs
VCU's 5-10 | 174 Sr RODRIGUEZ

Mack effectively uses SIZE to kill smaller Guards at 'Flash' spot.  (Inside FT Line, off endless Butler Back-Screens).
Mack effectively uses SIZE to Back Down lighter guards.

(i.e., MACK +48 LBS | +5" on VCU's JOEY RODRIGUEZ),
Enables Mack to score over him, or better yet, draw sagging / Help-D, w/Mack finding spot-ups, via kick-out, from Butler's sensational rotations.

MACK ROLE/SIZE IN BUTLER'S SCHEME VITAL
& = ALL THOSE GREAT BUTLER INSIDE-OUT 3's

3. THREES - THREES - THREES

BUTLER HASN'T ALWAYS SHOT BETTER % FROM DEEP IN THEIR TOURNAMENT GAMES 

YET, BUTLER HAS SHOT MANY MORE 3's (+35)

Here is where real discernible differences lie between

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs BUTLER

VCU SHOOTING GREAT FROM DEEP (NCAA TOURNEY) 47.2%VCU ALLOWING OPP ½ THIS% FROM DEEP: 23% (VCU % Alwd)

Nevertheless, Butler IS LIMITING OPPONENTS to LESS THAN ½ SEASON AVERAGE NUMBER of 3-PT ATTEMPTS

More Important, Butler is limiting 3-Point Attempts, especially from Teams (such as VCU), which rely most heavily upon Triples.

After adding VCU to this list, 4 of 5 BUTLER OPPONENTS were top third, HIGHEST SEASONAL, 3-Pt Distribution Teams in Tourney
(VCU 12% Highest 3-Pt Distribution Team)

Graphic Demonstration of how exceptionally proficient Butler continually has been w/Tournament Perimeter Defense.

4. FEWER POSSESSIONS | TOURNEY GAME GRINDERS

PART OF THIS IS PACE

VCU: QUICKEST PACED TEAM FINAL FOUR (67.1 Poss/Gm)
BUTLER: SLOWEST PACED (64.4 Poss/Gm)

Butler limiting Possessions, playing their Defensive Gm &
Should effectively limit VCU Rodriguez' SPEED & Aptitude to get into Lane & get Run-Outs

BUTLER IS SENSATIONAL AT LIMITING RUNOUTS
BUTLER IS EVEN BETTER AT STUFFING PASSING LANES

VCU has thrived in Tourney w/Offensive-Spacing
VCU has had more run-outs than any tm in recent memory  VCU benefiting from Rodriguez' terrific playmaking savvy, hitting open BIGS for the Unreal Numbers they've been splashing from deep: 52.1%

VCU's Rozzell | Skeen | Burgess
Tournament collective 3-Pt Shooting: 
2.53 Threes/Gm Avg, EACH

5. DEFENSIVE STYLISTICS

Butlers' Slide-Match-up Zone
(Difficult to distinguish from 'Tri2', yet reportedly different)
IS IDYLLIC SYSTEM FOR THE 'OVERPLAY-PRONE' RAMS

STUNNING W/FSU RUNNING A SIMILAR MATCH-Z TO PERFECTION, YET VCU FIGHTING THRU IT TO WIN

Second Part is that VCU allowed so many MORE 3-Attempts
& Many of their Tourney Opponents don't take a lot of 3's
(FSU, SO CAL)

However, VCU allowed 20 Threes /Gm thru 5 Tourney Gms

Any Coach would tell you they were very fortunate here

A team getting that 3's up, at collective 23%? (23-100 alwd)

Thus, (Brace yourselves, VCU-backers)
INORDINATE HIGH OPPONENT 3-ATTEMPTS; Dead Giveaway.

VCU OPPONENTS POOR SHOOTING
Far more attributable to the 23% Deep Number
Than VCU GREAT DEFENSE

VCU OPPONENTS ARE MISSING MORE OPEN LOOKS 
BUTLER OPPONENT'S MAKING 30% on below average attempts/gm, clearly indicates Bulldog Opponents are battling thru far more HOTLY CONTESTED 3-BALL LOOKS.  

Smaller amount - more duress (in general)

6. MORE MATCH-UPS & LAW-OF-AVERAGES

Not only Mack on Rodriguez

Butler Defensively:   
[4] BTLR 6-8 | 238 Sr Matt Howard at Stretch-4
[5] BTLR 6-11 | 244 Soph Andrew Smith in Post

Repeating myself a bit (from earlier thread)
Butler Should Seer Success vs Good Shooting Bigs:

Butler: Week to prepare for 52.1% Successful, Good Tourney 3-Pt Shooting of VCU Bigs, Skeen | Burgess | Rozzell

VCU BIGS ARE GOOD SHOOTERS

YET THESE NUMBERS FAR, FAR EXCEED A REASONABLE BINOMIAL STANDARD RANGE
....EVEN SHORTEST-TERM, EXPECTED RANGE(S)

Hence, running into a Savvy, VET-TM
Repeating the 'Magic Carpet Ride';
Twice in 2 yrs, last yr, and did it again? 

Butler has reverse scenario w/their great 3-Ball Shooter, 
[1] BTLR 6-3 | 222 Sr Sheldon Mack

Mack is struggling lately (4-18 last 3)
Thus, SHOOTING FAR BELOW HIS 'BINOMIAL AVG'

How will Butler respond to actually throwing on their WHITE UNI's at Final-4?  Playing the Favorite role?
Truly believe it'll be a good thing for Butler

BUTLER is a BARGAIN as JUST ONE POSSESSION FAV

Final Four Play-of-the-Week
3 UNIT
11 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 
8   BUTLER -145* (Moneyline* | BetUS)

_____________________

2011 NCAA FINAL FOUR

Saturday, April 2, 2011 | 8:49 PM, EDT | TV-CBS
Reliant Stadium | Houston, Texas

4 KENTUCKY WILDCATS 29-8 | 13-6 Conf (16-16 ATS)
3 CONNECTICUT HUSKIES 30-9 | 14-9 Conf (21-12 ATS)

Game #2

1. POINT-GUARD MATCH-UP

Not just the Scoring of
UCONN 6-1 | 172 Jr Kemba Walker (27 PPG Tourney)
But his unreal accompanying numbers are sensational

• Rebounds: 5.33/Gm
• Steals: 6 Tourney
• Assist to Turnover Ratio: 2.7 Tourney

vs

KY Dynamic yet erratic FRESHMAN
UKY 6-3 | 185 Fr Brandon Knight

2.  CONNECTICUT 'BIGS'
Huskies are #6 Biggest Team in NCAA
& Conn underrated / unheralded Bigs for Huskies

3. DEPTH DIFFERENCE

Cats bring a shockingly thin rotation to Houston

KY is '6-DEEP' for all practical purposes
Final-4 Games w/so much week-long energy building
Statistically results in +4.4 PF's/Gm
vs Rest of Tourney (Last 15 yrs)

4. 3-POINT EQUALIZER

3-Pt Shooting suffers in HUGE Football Stadium
Backdrops can affect deep shooters (fact also -4.4% lower)
Not just depth perception, but drafts
We should see this (mentally if nothing else)
Effect Ky enough to neutralize Cats Advantage
Ky comes in Best 3-Shooting team in F-4

All of it adds up to Dog Win for UConn

2 UNIT
4 KENTUCKY
3 CONNECTICUT +3 (BH | Bookmaker)

Like this so much more than M-L,
Worth Xtra 'Yang to get it at ONE FULL POSSESSION/DAWG