NBA WEDNESDAY: Lakers & Bulls Hope to Salvage Home Split

2011 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIS
Mon, May 2, 2011 | 8:05 PM, EDT | TNT-TV
United Center | Chicago, Illinois

5 ATLANTA HAWKS

1 CHICAGO BULLS

CHICAGO




[1] POINT GUARD
CHI 6-3 | 187 ROSE   
CHI 6-2 | 186 Watson




[2] SHOOTING GUARD
CHI 6-5 | 213 BOGANS   
CHI 6-7 | 222 Brewer




[3] SMALL FORWARD
CHI 6-8 | 201 DENG   
CHI 6-7 | Korver




[4] POWER FORWARD
CHI 6-9 | 267 BOOZER   
CHI 6-9 | 226 Gibson




[5] POST | CENTER
CHI 6-11 | 233 NOAH   
CHI 6-9 | 230 Thomas




ATLANTA




[1] POINT GUARD
ATL 6-3½ | 194 HINRICH*  INJ (Out Gm 1)




[2] SHOOTING GUARD
ATL 6-8 | 227 JOHNSON   
ATL 6-4 | 199 Crawford* 6th Man




[3] SMALL FORWARD
ATL 6-9 | 234 WILLIAMS




[4] POWER FORWARD
ATL 6-9 | 229 SMITH




[5] POST | CENTER
ATL 6-10 | 248 HORFORD   
ATL 6-11 | 277 Pachulia
ATL 7-0 | 256 Collins


Chicago Bulls duplicated a momentous, all-too-common premise
 Top-Seed, Heavy-Home Favorite
 On their MVP's Award-Winning Celebration Game Day
 As historically customary & foreseeable as this outcome might seem
 Chicago's copious Game 1 letdown & Straight up Loss
(All due respect & well-deserved accolades to Atlanta)


103-95 Hawks Win remains a statistical anomaly
CLEARLY | UNEQUIVOCALLY

ATLANTA 103
CHICAGO 95

#1 BOMBSHELL
Of opening NBA Playoff fortnight


Nearly identical stat lines as Rd-1 Atl Trend-Setter
ATL 103, ORL 93 (ATL 1.156 O-PPP | ORL 1.044 O-PPP)
ATL 103, CHI 95 (ATL 1.157 O-PPP | CHI 1.067 O-PPP) Astonishing


ATLANTA

• Decimated at PG
• w/ONLY TRUE Point, Hinrich out w/badly sprained ankle
• vs. CHI #1 MVP Pointguard
• & #4 NBA Defensive Bulldog Point, CHI D ROSE

Turning to hardly used Jeff Teague
(27 TTL Playoff Min | 4.5/Min Gm in 1st Rd)

TEAGUE NEARLY TRIPLED HIS PLAYOFF MIN IN 1-GM

• 44 STELLAR, STEADY MIN
• Scoring 10 Pts (5-11)
• After Avg' 2.5 PPG on 12-60 FG (20%)

MOST IMPORTANTLY:

• Teague blasting thru screens,
• ONLY COMMITTING 2 PF (1 per 22 Min)

NEARLY FLAWLESS RUNNING OF ATLANTA'S SHOW, TEAGUE:

• 5 ASST (Modest)
• YET JUST 1 T-OVER!

To say this is unexpected is partially correct

FORGOTTEN FACT:

22-Yr-Old Teague STARTED 7-Gms for Atl
(Mostly spot, Injury-duty as G1)
Hardly any as big as Gm 1 at United Center

GAME 2:
'IS A REGRESSION TO THE MEAN' INESCAPABLE FOR HAWKS?

We've profited greatly from careful
Logical adherence to this concept in the Playoffs,
Primarily in situations such as this one w/Bulls
(& Tonight w/Thunder, ect)
To answer this, we must assess Atlanta's searing opening numbers:

ATLANTA
INCOMPREHENSIBLE GAME 1 PROFICIENCY

Numerous ATL Gm 1 numbers are appreciably incompatible
w/Atlanta's median, congregate statistical range(s),
Especially in correspondence to Chicago Bulls Data & Stats:

THREE-POINT SHOOTING:

ATL "O": 35.2% Reg (#17) | 36.7% Playoffs (#5 of 8 Cur Tms)
CHI "D": 32.7% Reg (#1) | 33.3% Playoffs (#2 of 8 Cur Tms)

As Hawks spring 7-13 Threes on Chicago

FG%:

ATL: 46.3 Reg (#11) | 42.5% Playoffs (#6 of 8 Tms)
CHI: "D" 43% Reg (#1) | 40.9% Playoffs (#2)

Atlanta shot 51.4% vs Chicago on Monday
Chicago is #1 FG Defense

ATLANTA JOE JOHNSON

• 34 PTS (12-18 | 5-5 THREES | 5-5 FT's)
• Johnson entered Series vs. Chi Under 40% FG (39.6%)
• Johnson inconsistent from deep (33%

TURNOVERS

ATLANTA 

• 13.5/Gm Reg (#8)  | 13/Gm Post (#5 of 8 Cur Tms)

CHICAGO

• Forced 16 Gm Reg (#3) | 16.2/Gm Playoffs (#1)

PERHAPS MOST SUBTLE YET ASTONISHING:

ATLANTA 'BIGS'

• Offensively Weakest Single producing Unit in Playoffs
• All 16 Tms | ATL [5]'s -21.4 PER*

*  Discounted - by many (myself included), Failure to account for Atlanta's 3-on-1 Maneuver Rd-1 vs. 'Superman'

ATL POSTMEN:
Produced Solid Game 1 Numbers

ATL [5]'s: HORFORD | PACHILLA | COLLINS

OUTPLAYED

CHI [5]'s: J NOAH | K THOMAS | O ASIK

Atl vs Chi Post Points: 20-11
(Atl 8-12 FG / 66.7% | Chi 3-8 / 37.5%)

Atl vs Chi Rebounds: 21-9

In any case, Bulls' Rose seems to be good on his injured ankle, yet Atl Hinrich still out (we hear)

MANY THINGS CHICAGO MUST BE WORKING LATE TO CLOSE OFF HERE:

ATLANTA GUARD PLAY

Have to believe Bulls did not perform extensive (IF ANY) advanced scouting on Atlanta's Jeff Teague

The success of Teauge & Atl is many times more unlikely IF Chi scouted Atl's Guard Replacement 

Teague succeeded in numerous ballzy, deep-dribble penetration into Bulls lane 
This is largely inconceivable vs. Bullz 'Sweet Lou' (DENG: #1 Rated Backcourt NBA Defender)

Yet, we can credit Teague w/facilitating Hawks collapse of Bulls 'Core D', & finding Joe-J for 3 of those 5-5 Deep Hoops

CREDIT IS GIVEN TO TEAGUE, JOE-J, & ATL BIGS
REST-ASSURED THIS CAN & WILL BE ABSOLUTELY, EMPHATICALLY SMOTHERED IN GM 2

Atl shot an unbelievable 39 Shot Attempts from 10-Feet In
NO WAY ON EARTH does Atl get ½ this number tonight

& ROSE ZERO FT ATT?
Rose entered gm AVG' 12 FTA in Playoffs
Rose mixed it up | looked like He's in good form

Looking for Bulls to 'just-win-baby'
Hesitate to say they'll drop the Hammer...
Certain that Chi will never let Atl get 'As Comfortable'Truthfully, Baby-Bullz backs are to wall
Having never reached Round-2

Like Chicago A LOT here, w/Teaser
Regardless of Sqaureishness of it.
________________

2011 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIS
Mon, May 2, 2011 | 10:35 PM, EDT | TNT-TV
Staples Center | Los Angeles, California

GAME 2

3 DALLAS MAVERICKS

2 LOS ANGELES LAKERS

LOS ANGELES 


[1] POINT GUARD
LAL 6-3 | 188 FISHER   
LAL 6-3 | 173 Blake


[2] SHOOTING GUARD
LAL 6-6 | 203 BRYANT  
LAL 6-4 | 204 Brown


[3] SMALL FORWARD
LAL 6-6 | 247 ARTEST  
LAL 6-7 | 233 Barnes


[4] POWER FORWARD
LAL 7-0 | 227 GASOL
LAL 6-10 | 229 Odom


[5] POST | CENTER
LAL 7-0 | 290 BYNUM   
LAL 6-10 | 221 Ratliff


DALLAS


[1] POINT GUARD
DAL 6-4 | 207 KIDD   
DAL 6-0 | 171 Barea


[2] SHOOTING GUARD
DAL 6-5 | 219 STEVENSON   
DAL 6-2 | 172 Terry
DAL 6-0 | 169 Beaubois


[3] SMALL FORWARD
DAL 6-7 | 222 MARION   
DAL 6-9 | 221 Stojakovic


[4] POWER FORWARD
DAL 7-0 | 238 NOWITZKI  
DAL 6-11 | 235 Mahinimi
 
[5] POST | CENTER
DAL 7-1 | 236 CHANDLER   
DAL 7-0 | 274 Haywood
______________

LA LAKERS Game 2:

Same Series' predicament; worlds' away in experience
This situation is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to see Laker lite….
Dissimilar to Chicago, LAL has been in this role
& will pull out all stops to pull this one out
(by margin a little closer than -Double-Figures)

2½ UNIT | 5-PT-TEASER

ATLANTA
CHICAGO -3½ 

To

DALLAS
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -2 (-120 | Bodog)

Bulls #22 to Hawks #27 Tempo

UNDER IS STILL TOO LOW FOR MY TASTE

Yet LA & Chi overwhelming need(s) to get these ones
& marginal success in Game 2's
(Track Record is phenomenal)

Makes Each Fav a BIG calculated play w/teaser nudge

ALL THE BEST, GUYS!

W-O-W
__________________

ADDITIONAL PLAY:

Always dilemma backing ridiculously talented Lake Show...
& maddening as HECK when they mail it in.

Hot Debate emerged, past few hrs w/friend/Laker-Fan
'LA doesn't go half-assed, they just don't have it some nights'

REALLY?


2010-2011 NBA PLAYOFFS
LA w/ENTIRELY XTRA GEAR, & 'EFFORT AREAS' in WINS:

NO TEAM COMES CLOSE to LA EXTREMES

PTS OFF T-OVERS in LA LOSSES
NOH 6 PT (-11) 10 PT (-8 ) | DAL: 12 (-1)

PTS OFF T-OVERS in LAL PLAYOFF WINS
v NOH: 22 PT (+14), 16 PT (+/-0), 11 PT (+/-0), 16 PT (+4)

POINTS-IN-PAINT in LAL LOSSES
NOH 34 PT (-18), 40 (+2) | v DAL: 36 PT (-10)

POINTS-IN-PAINT in LAL PLAYOFF WINS
v NOH 50 PT (+18), 48 PT (+8), 42 PT (+12), 42 PT (+8)

2ND CHANCE PTS in LAL PLAYOFF LOSSES
v NOH: 12 PTS (-6)  4 PTS (-21) | v DAL: 12 (-7)

2ND CHANCE PTS in LAL PLAYOFF WINS
v NOH: 16 PTS (+3), 17 PT (+9), 22 PT (+20), 21 PT (+17)

FAST-BREAK PTS in LAL LOSSES:
v NOH: 2 PT (-4), 4 PT (-16) | v DAL: 15 PT (+/-0)

FAST-BREAK PTS in LAL WINS:
v NOH 14 PT (+9), 10 PT (+1), 8 PT (-3), 13 PT (+1)

BREAK POINTS MAY BE KEY FOR DALLAS
NEITHER PROFESSES DESIRE TO RUN

Dallas has multiple reasons to run

Mavs had ZERO Break Points in only sub-standard Offensive Efficiency Gm of Playoffs (Game 4 vs Por)

LAL 6 Combined Break Pts in 2 L's to NOH

YET, LAL W's All 81-87 in Tempo
   G2 NOH: (85)
   G3 NOH: (84.5)
   G5 NOH: (87)
   G6 NOH: (81.5)

DALLAS BIGGEST W's:  
   G1 LAL (91 PACE)
   G5 POR (88 PACE)

Dallas should continue to push ball & look for outlets

• Neutralizing BIGS of LAL
• Getting as many cheap | easier baskets as possible

DALLAS' REVERSING PORTLAND STRATEGY
TEMPO + BALL-PUSH + & SPREADING THE COURT
DALLAS' WAS SUCCESSFUL HERE - MAY HAVE SURPRISED LAL
DAL & LAL w/15-BREAK PTS EACH & GAME-1: 
91 POSSESSIONS (Playoff Hi's for BOTH TMS)

LAL must have this Gm
LAL WILL make concerted effort to re-establish Post-ups
LAL after looking at Film
MUST SEE paltry Defense on DAL Pull-ups (Can't Miss it)
& VOW TO HALT THIS

SINCERELY MUST BE ROYAL BITCH TO SCOUT MAVS

DALLAS OUT-IN GM....
MULTIPLE FLASH-UP|KNOCK-DOWN PLAYERS...
w/7-FOOT ASSASSIN AT THE TOP-OF-THE-LIST?
Deep as Heck
w/Twin 7-Foot Pivot-Men to boot?

I CAN ONLY SPEAK FOR MYSELF TO SAY
I CONSTANTLY NEGLECT THIS TM

FORGET HOW FREAKISHLY GOOD DIRK, JET, & Mavs are

* Dallas Finished TIED w/Lake Show for 2-Seed
* Lost TIE-BREAK Defending Champs
* WON 57-Gms, 2010-2011
So the added pick is on UNDER

Small Play; w/Mavs Ranking so high (#4) 
Low-Post D (another underrated factor)

As Branford Doolittle was quick to point out in BB-Prospectus, LAL MUST Play thier Triangle INSIDE-OUT Game as it's purist to beat Dallas consistently

THUS,
CLASSIC LOW-POST, INSIDE-OUT LAKERS
vs
OLD-SCHOOL, OUTSIDE-IN MAVERICKS

Could be wrong,
yet this should be a recipe for an 87-82 LAL Slugfest
Only thing keeping us OFF a Larger Pick?
The Fact that Dallas has not & may not
EVER have a sub-100 O-PPP Game in Playoffs
& Dallas got to line just SIX-TIMES
& TMS combined for 29 PF
(-8 below their Season Avg's)

Also, Both Tms got to Rim well in Gm 1
LA shot 65% at rim |  Dal just 43%

Dal only 6 Conversions at Rim 

LAL is still playing fairly well Defensively, despite Loss
Yet a concerted effort on LA side of Offensive Floor
Should really get the win for Lakers

1 UNIT
DALLAS
LOS ANGELES LAKERS | UNDER 189 (BH | BetUS)