"PAC-10 OUT~PAC-12 IN", 3-UNIT "Big-Game II Play-of-the-Day

BIG GAME II

Sat Mar 5, 2011 | 7:07 PM. EDT | FSN
Hass Pavilion | Berkley, California

STANFORD CARDINAL15-14 | 7-10 Conf (12-14 ATS)
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS 16-13 | 9-8 Conf (14-14 ATS)


Way back on January 2
Stanford thumped Cal 82-68 in Palo Alto
Cardinal shot unreal 57.4% | 52.7% from Deep
When Stanford was in Gm 2 of 5-0 ATS Run
Cal was in final dramatic day of "The Franklin-Experiment"
(Top Recruit PG Freshman Gary Franklin
Since Gone; Transferred to Baylor)
Franklin played 30-Min vs Stanford
Ironically BEST GAME of his Cal Career at Stanford
15 Pts, 1-off his Career high)
Season High Minutes & 4 Asst
It was also his LAST Game as a Cali-Bear
Apparently, somehow...didn't fit w/Bears
& All Franklin's Minutes dragged on Bears' Team Captain, Brandon Smith
(1 POINT vs Stanford)

CALIFORNIA

Soon after the Franklin departure,
Cal was off & running w/6-1 ATS Run
Yet Happier Bears were & still are very, VERY thin
(AVG BENCH MIN since Franklin Transfer: 16 MIN)
Cal's Bench Minutes: Dead Last % Over L-10 Gms

Then, Bears key Freshman, Crabbe suffered a Concussion....
& Bears were thin as Honey-Bucket 1-ply
Bears suffered a devastating 0-4 run that included
a Triple-OT Loss to #18 Arizona,
3 & 4-Pt losses at Wazzu & vs Red-Hot So Cal
& a out-of-gas Blowout loss in Seattle to UW (109-77)

Bears could have folded it in,
Yet they welcomed Crabbe back w/inspired Prime-Time OT Win over Streaking UCLA
CAL's BENCH TALLIED 15 TTL MIN; IN AN OT GAME

Cal is arguably, FINALLY really clicking again
The Bears traveled to Ore & Ore St
Fell behind both Beavers & Ducks by D-Figures early
Then stormed back to WIN both in nearly identical D-Figures Fashion
BEARS GETTING TO LINE OVER 30x GM (L-5)
BEARS SCORING 81.7 PPG LAST 7-GMS
BEARS 3-0 (S-U & ATS)

All the well deserved praise Gutierrez is gaining
Cal's catalyst has been 6-4 168 Freshman Allen Crabbe
Cal #3 Scorer (12 PPG)
Cal #3 Rebounder (5½/Gm)
YET, Clearly Crabbe is Bears'  #1 Deep Threat
(53-131 Threes | 41%)

Cal's Crabbe rapidly progressing into a prolific scorer
I MUST admit to being genuinely impressed w/just Crabbe's Polished Game
w/Bears serious depth issue,
Safe to say at this point, as Crabbe goes, so go Bears
Especially 2nd Half of Season:
CRABBE: 27 PT (9-21 FG |  3-6 Threes)
Az 107, Cal 105 (Bears ATS-W)

CRABBE Inj first 2 Min at Wash, 2 Pts (1-1 FG)
Wash 109, Cal 77 (Bears ATS-L)

(CRABBE INJ-DNP) Wzu 75, Cal 71 (Bears ATS-L)
(CRABBE INJ-DNP) SC 78, Cal 75 (Bears ATS-L)
     
CRABBE: 8 Pts (3-11 | First Gm Back From Inj)
Cal 76, UCLA 72 OT (Bears ATS-W)

CRABBE: 19 Pts (6-13 FG | 4-8 Threes)
Cal 81 at Ore 71 (Bears ATS-W)

CRABBE: 26 Pts (8-12 FG | 6-8 Threes)
Cal 87, OSU 76 (Bears ATS-W)

Crabbe's Red-Hot Three Shooting (13-24 Last-3 Full Gms)
Has Helped Bears turnaround back to Cal's customary, high 3-Pt Distribution
CAL LAST 7 GMS: Crabbe is 43-101 FROM DEEP (42½%)
BEARS nailing 6.4 THREES/GM AVG
L-2 GMS BEARS 18-36 FROM DEEP (50%)

CAL - Hottest PAC-10 Team:
3-0 (S-U & ATS)
& THE CAL 2-YR-PROBATION ISSUE?
Hidden somewhat
(Now BURIED w/the Ignoramus' Klay Thompson Dope-Smoking Debacle)
Was Cal's 'Announcment' of NCAA-Imposed 2-Year Probation
Apparently, Cal is quietly breathing BIG sigh of relief
Sanctions could have included Loss of a Scholie, or worse 
It amounts to a slap-on-the-wrist, w/limits on Recruiting Visits, ect
& Monty & his staff must 'Take a Class' in Rules...honestly
(Hypocrisy = NCAA?)
So Bears were buoyed by the announcement
(Made public between Cal's Oregon/Oregon State Road Gms

STANFORD

Even w/Improbable closer-than-score Win over nosediving Oregon
(& 11-pt Win Over Seattle U)Stanford is closing out year w/several weaker efforts
The Cardinal slow developing Offense is sinking
#6-#8 efficiency areas
Cardinal Defense Numbers as well

Stanford heavy reliance on Green's shot creating
Is pushing Cardinal Pace DOWN
Lower than where J Dawkins presumably wishes it to be
Moreover, Stanford's normally stout Defense is looking downright poor
STN #9 Conf in eFG (52% Alwd)
STN #9 Three-Pt Defense (38½% Alwd)
STN #9 FT-Distribution Alwd (20% FTA/FGA Alwd)

3 Areas CAL's Offense is #2 or #1 (PAC-10)
CAL #2 eFG (52.8%)
CAL #2 THREE SHOOTING (40%)
CAL #1 FTA/FGA (50%)

BEARS SHOOT 1 FT FOR EVERY 2 FG ATT (#1 PAC-10)
¼ OF BEARS' POINTS COME FROM LINE w/BEARS AVG' 30 FTA LAST-7 GMS
STANFORD ALLOWS 2nd Most OPP FT POINTS

As Cardinal season fades, the youth movement has begun
Stanford HC J Dawkins working 5 Fr into Full-Rotation
w/luke-warm results

Lastly, Stanford plays mostly MTM Defense
& YES they are much bigger (taller) than Cal
Quite honestly, Monty's Bears have dismantled MTM-Defenses
w/Big-4, Bears were 3-0 (S-U & ATS) vs Stanford
In Conf play this year vs STRAIGHT Man Tms
(AZ | SC | UCLA) Bears are just 3-3, YET 5-1 ATS

Stanford "L" is a Game Bears must get back
& have professed a tangible goal to finish over .500 in Conf
When Cal played well enough to win
Yet were inexplicably out-shot at FT Line
& Outshot in Gm 57.4% (Stn) to 52%

Stanford is much taller than Cal
Bears are MUCH more physical; & throwing their muscle around

Secondary concern w/Bears
CAL 6-7½ | 284 Markhuri Sanders-Frison & his Foul Issues
BETTER control of late,
Yet Sanders-Frison is the ONLY Starter in D-1
To AVERAGE OVER FOUR P-FOULS/GM (4.04)

He fouled out in just 20 Min in Palo Alto (1/2/11)
Cal needs his Post Play Scoring vs Stanford

Lastly, Cal has as much to play for here as 15-14 Cardinal
Both Teams heading to Conference Tourney assured to start play on different days
(Stanford Locked into either 7 or 8)
Cal sits w/SC & Wazzu at 9-8
& Stat-Sheet Seed Computer STILL (somehow) lists Cal on 'Bubble'In any case, Cal may really prefer to be #4 Seed,
Highly probable w/Win vs Stanford
Moreover, Bears wish to improve odds of Hosting NIT Game
Which Should happen w/Strong Bears Finish
Cal's shot at REVENGE is all part of it, also

Play-of-the-Day
3 UNITS
STANFORD
CALIFORNIA -5½ (BetUS)
_________________
1 UNIT LEAN:
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA +9
WASHINGTON