PAC-10 TOURNEY | 3-UNIT Never-too-Early Play-of-Day

PAC-10 TOURNAMENT | GAME #2

PLAY-IN GAME

Wednesday, March 9, 2011 | 11:57 PM, EDT | FSN-TV
Staples Center | Los Angeles, California

7  OREGON DUCKS 14-16 | 7-11 Conf (14-14 ATS)
10 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS 12-18 | 4-14 Conf (10-18 ATS)

½ of Devils' four Conference Wins obtained via Ducks, as 10th Place Arizona State swept Oregon, Straight-up & ATS (each Game had UNDER ONE-POSSESSION Spread)

Game 1 (1-1-11):
Arizona State wrecked Oregon’s New Year’s Grand Exit, 60-55.  
THE Final Official Game at McArthur Court in Eugene, in an ultra-tight game; perhaps even closer than five-point final score.  (NO LEAD BIGGER than that 5 Pt Final since ASU led 11-3 in opening 4 Minutes)

Teams quickly moved in opposite destinations.
Devils' proceeded to Lose 11x Consecutive Conference Gms.

Oregon soon returned to Eugene & reversed course, to produce improbable, solid .778-winning pace, mid-half conference season roll

ALL of OREGON's 7 PAC-10 Season Wins occurred in Ducks 9 game stretch, 5 thru 14.

Nevertheless, Oregon's brief glimpse at Post-Season possibilities ended w/0-4 (1-3 ATS) crash-landing

OREGON'S WORST CONFERENCE LOSS? 
Last Thursday, 73-53 in Tempe

Cliche' to conclude a Conference Team cannot beat another for a THIRD Time in a single season, right?

Probably....yes. 

Many significant factors & match-up advantages for Arizona State here.  In fact, this lines up AGAIN for Devils quite well

ARIZONA STATE FG%

3-Pt-Shooting notwithstanding, we find significant clues to Devils success in 2-Pt Shooting

• Gm 1 (1-1-11) Devils +14% TWO-PT-RANGE
• Gm 2 (3-3-11) Devils +12% TWO-PT-RANGE

Strongly believe these numbers represent AZST's TRUE Advantage

Defensive Tm Like AZ ST has vs ORE in particular

• w/Devils EXTENDED High-Level pressure,
• w/Match-Up Zone

So much more INTERIOR Pressure on Catron, ESPECIALLY w/o Help of 2nd ORE Big-Body

[5]
Bench
ORE 6-8 | 236 J Jacob (INJ)

Match-up Zone cages in J Catron, in particular

#1 REASON DUCKS COLLAPSED DOWN STRETCH? 

0-SIZE & SUPPORT FOR ORE BIGGEST STARTER,

[5] 
ORE 6-6 | 257 Sr Post JOEVAN CATRON

Running on fumes, we'd be cautioned here vs believing Catron is rejuvenated
From Saturday's Career High, 28 Pts vs AZ Sat

CATRON is Ore Leading Scorer
After Gm-7, JC was #4 PAC-10 Scoring

CATRON'S FATIGUE SIGNS ARE EVERYWHERE:
Until AZ Breakout, Catrons Six Games leading up to Tucson Finale:
'JC' had produced 6 consecutive sub-avg Scoring efforts
10.7 PPG | 32% FG Shooting

AZ is the SECOND Smallest Team in Conference
Catron & Oregon also typically play quite well vs MTM Tms - akin to Arizona
& BTW, Oregon DID Cover, w/ a Supreme Effort by AZ
(Cats' A-1 Gm, Close-out Unbeaten Home Season & PAC-10 Regular Season Title...yet Oregon Trailed by just 2-possessions under 5 Min Left....)
 
In Tempe, Catron was 1-8 FT
w/5 of those 7 Misses falling light
(TRUE fatigue causes short-rimmed shooting)

CATRON vs 2 GAMES vs ARIZONA STATE AVG
27½ MIN | 8 PPG
(2-7 FG | 4-8 FT | 6 REB | 5 T-Ov | 4 PF)

Moreover, Arizona State is FINALLY healthy
AZST T Abbott no longer has to force the action on Offensive End
(For #10 Conference, Scoring DEVILS)

AZST's 6-3 Sr T ABBOTT
1-10 FG during LA WEEKEND

AZST was shorthanded at UCLA & at SC, & proceeded to score just 99 TTL PTS
vs #1 Bruins & #2 Trojans Rated Conference Defenses

w/his running mates, #2 & #3 SR Starters back on Floor  

   AZST 6-6 Sr R KUKSIKS Three-Pt Bombardier
   AZST 6-4 Sr T LOCKETT Steady Play    

Abbott flourished vs Oregon Schools
22 & 22 Pts (12-26 DEEP)

KUKSIKS ALSO...MAKING UP FOR LOST TIME?
(His numbers sound 'Made-Up')

Thu: ALL KUKSIKS 15 FG ATT vs ORE WERE 3's
Kuksiks Weekend: 11-26 from Behind the Arch (42.3%)

ARIZONA STATE AVERAGES 21 THREE ATT/GM - HIGHEST IN PAC-10

Last 2 Games, w/NOTHING to Lose, Final Games with Trio of Seniors back on Floor for Devils, Herb Sendeck allowed his Team to SHOOT 76 THREES in FINAL 2 HOME GAMES 

DEVILS MADE 31-76 (43.4%) Deep With AZST Match-up Zone Defense; ideally suited to cage SMALLEST Tm (Ore) PAC-10

This fast-&-loose Arizona State Team, shooting ridiculous 38 Threes/Gm w/Sr's last hurrah?

REALLY LIKE DEVILS TO SMASH THRU MYTHICAL, "CAN'T BEAT CONFERENCE TEAM 3x/YEAR" BARRIER...

Doesn't look trappish to this capper.

3 UNIT
PAC-10 Tourney (Day-Early) Play-of-the-Day10 ARIZONA STATE - PICK *
7 OREGON 

* Bookmaker Spread Last Updated
   lvsc.com AZ-ST -0.0
   Mar 07 12:49 PM ET
In absence of line, LVSC Listing Opening number at PICK.
Might spin twd ORE, so this is somewhat tentativeIF this arrives at PICK, it IS a 3 UNIT DEVS PLAY.  (For what it's worth)

LINE-UPS | W/FEW NOTES:
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

[1]

AZST 6-2 | 177 Sr JAMIELLE McMILLAN
2.58 Assist to Turnover Ratio (superb)
#4 SCORER (6.7 PPG)
McMillan increasing assertive offensively in SR Yr
Led Devils in Md 3's 7x
Led Devils Scoring 5x in Last 11 Gms

Bench
AZST 6-1 | 190 Soph Marcus Jackson

[2]

AZST 6-3 | 216 Sr TY ABBOTT
#1 MIN/Gm (32.4)
#2 SCORER (12½ PPG)
#1 Made 3's (68-176 | 39%)

Abbott closed season on tear
22 Pts + 22 Pts (55% FG)

BenchAZST 6-5 | 226 Fr Chanse Creekmur

[3]

AZST 6-6 | 211 Sr RIHARDS KUKSIKS
(Was INJ, yet re-inserted last-2 Gms)
#3 SCORER (10.1 PPG)
#2 Made 3's (63-160 | 39.4%)
08-09, Led Nation in 3-Pt% (52.7%)

Bench
AZST 6-5 | 214 Fr Keala King

[4]

AZST 6-4 | 211 Soph TRENT LOCKETT

Bench
AZST 6-6 | 202 Soph Carrick Felix

[5]

AZST 6-7 | 214 Fr KYLE CAIN

Bench
AZST 7-0 | 255 Soph Ruslan Pateev
__________________________

OREGON DUCKS

[1]

ORE 6-0 | 203 Jr MALCOM ARMSTEAD

Bench
ORE 5-8½ | 166 Fr Johnathan Loyd

[2]

ORE 5-9¾ | 186 Sr JAY-R STROWBRIDGE
Ore #3 Scorer (10.1 PPG)

#1 Made 3's (46-131 | 35%)
STARTER in 6 Ore Late Season Gms

Bench
ORE 6-4 | 199 Jr Teondre Williams

[3]

ORE 6-1 | 180 Jr GARRETT SIM
Bench
ORE 6-8 | 223 Jr Tyrone Nared

[4]

ORE 6-6 | 213 Soph E.J. SINGLER
Bench
ORE 6-8 | 226 Jr Jeremy Jacob (INJ)

[5]

ORE 6-6 | 244 Sr JOEVAN CATRON
Ore #1 SCORER (14.8)
Ore #1 REB (6.4/Gm)
Injured for 5 Gms Mid-Season

70% FT Shooter
Catron shot 50% in his Final two weekend Games (11-22)