OREGON STATE BEAVERS at ARIZONA WILDCATS | 2 UNIT PLAY

PAC-10 BASKETBALL
Thu Mar 3, 2011 | 9:07 PM, EDT | FSN-TV
McKale Center | Tucson, Arizona

       OREGON STATE BEAVERS 10-17 | 5-11 Conf (10-11 ATS)
#18 ARIZONA WILDCATS 23-6 | 12-4 Conf (16-11 ATS)

Gargantuan number staring us in the face here,
Beavers hit the road to finish out their forgettable 2010-2011 Season

ARIZONA

Cats' return to McKale after crashing back to earth in LA
Arizona arrived in LA Last Thursday w/Momentum. 

• Cats' ventured into Galen Center 4 days removed from a thrilling 87-86 Win over then-2nd Place Wash in Tucson
• Cats' were riding 8-Game Win Streak (6-2 ATS)
• Cats' held nearly insurmountable 2-Gm-Conf Lead w/4 to play

We quickly saw that Arizona would treat their lofty record as 'games to give'. 
For starters, Arizona's all-world, 'Mr Efficiency' Derrick Williams (#1 on one Mock NBA Draft Board), & after dropping SC Game, Williams' may have re-injured his 2 broken fingers; & injury itself is a little worse than initially reported. 

The LA Weekend Result?

Arizona's season-long, exceptionally proficient offense wilted under Defensive compression strain of PAC-10's 2 Best Defensive Teams.
   
   SC: #2 PAC-10, D-PPP Alwd (0.973)
   SC: #2 PAC-10, eFG% Alwd (45.9%)
  
   UCLA: #1 PAC-10 D-PPP Alwd (0.961)
   UCLA: #1 PAC-10 eFG% Alwd (45.2%)

AZ lost both games by exceedingly uncustomary, dominant fashion
AZ lost by Combined 30-Pts
AZ, #1 eFG Conf (#7 Nat'l coming in) shot an unthinkably low FG% BTB Gms:

ARIZONA FG% in LA:  

• AT SC, AZ SHOT 31.5% FG
• AT UCLA, AZ SHOT 36% FG

AZ (as projected) continued to struggle in Paint

• AZ at SC: Trojans +22 Points in Paint
• AZ at SC: Trojans +7 Rebounds
• AZ at UCLA: Bruins +28 Points in Paint
• AZ at UCLA: Bruins +14 Rebounds

SC & UCLA's BIGS POUNDED AZ INSIDE:
   SC: 40 & 22
   UCLA: 42 & 21

Lastly, AZ's 8-game win streak included a sensational 83½ PPG Scoring Rate; Cats' scoring was abruptly altered:

AZ SCORED 106 TTL PTS IN LA (53 PPG)
30 Points Less per Game from Streak Scoring Rate 

So now what happens?

BY ALL REPORTS, I SINCERELY DO NOT BELIEVE AZ IS IN PANIC MODE
(Cats' alter ego...Washington, Looks like they have been pressing 'P' Button)

Part & Parcel of AZ HC Sean Miller's calculated plan...
Is Bottom-Tier ORST & ORE Home Games to finish 2010-2011 Year
Both fishtailing, inconsistent outfits that should be cannon-fodder for AZ
w/UCLA way up North pair of highly unlikely UW/Wzu Games  
AZ has two games right in their comfort zone
Plus Cats have score to settle vs Beavers Tonight

Arizona has just 6 Losses; yet 1-L stands outThe anomaly AZ loss to a sub -.500 ORST Team on Jan 2
It is repeatedly referenced

MOREOVER, 2009-2010 LOW-TIER ORE ST TM
CAUGHT AZ 'JUST RIGHT' LAST YR
TWICE - AS BEAVERS SWEPT AZ LAST-YR, & ORST has (somehow) Won 3x Over AZ Overall

Cats' not only need an eye-catching win to maintain 4 or 5 Seed
They really shouldn't have a lot of remorse
For driving Beavers out of McKale

OREGON STATE

Craig Robinson's 'Runnin' Beavs' experiment
Has about run it's course in 2010-2011
Personal views & judgement aside, it's very fair to say
Ore St's Basketball Program remains a talented
Yet maddeningly inconsistent group...at Home

On the Road, Oregon State has been nothing short of dreadful
ORST PAC-10 ROAD RECORD: 0-7 (2-5 ATS)
(Beavers' Two Road Covers were backdoor, borderline flukes, also)
In fact, Oregon State's LONE Single Digit Road Conf Loss
Was Gm at UCLA, w/Bruins holding 21-Pt Lead w/7 Min Left,
Beaver Starters rolled up 15 consecutive pts on UCLA Bench Stiffs
Before Ben Howland re-inserted his Starters at 3:01 Mark

Since Ore St 2-0 Conf Start (S-U & ATS)
Ore St has been sliding & slumping, 3-11 (5-9 ATS)
Exceedingly disappointing year

Oregon State HC Craig Robinson insists
He'll start & play youthful lineups the rest of the way this year
As we know from his hard-to-imagine promise to play
'UP-TEMPO STYLE' this year....
When Coach Rob makes these statements - he's serious
His Princeton-Bred-Roots turned a 2nd to LAST Tempo Scheme
into the 35th HIGHEST in One Season)
  
   ORST 08-09 TEMPO: 58.1 Pss/G #346 of 347 Tms (Bottom 1.2% Tempo)
   ORST 09-10 TEMPO: 62.5 Pss/G (Bottom 6.1% Tempo)
   ORST 10-11 TEMPO: 70.3 Pss/G (Top 10.1% Tempo)

The ORST Youth Movement bodes very well for Arizona here
Even w/ORST PG 5-7 Fr Ahmad Starks bombing in FIVE 3's vs Cal
His 5 Starts have been an adventure
w/Starks learning on the job, shooting 26% since being named the QB of Beavers
BOTH STARKS & SOPH POST, 6-7 JOE BURTON
Are playing heavy minutes. showing signs of noticeable fatigue late in games
ORST HC Craig Robinson is content to let these youngsters play thru it

This cost Beavers BIG-TIME vs Cal w/Beavers squandering large late lead & losing by 11-Pts, & really should cost Beavers here

Cats' ought to win by 25+ Points

2 UNIT
OREGON STATE
ARIZONA -15

Still working 3-Remaining PAC-10 Games hard, w/2 Hard LEANS:
   UCLA +8
   WAZZU -4
WILL TWEET THESE IF WE HAVE PLAY(S) HERE, (STEVEBEAV)
Thanks, guys.